Breakout for U.S. services economy?

August 6, 2015

It’s not very often you come across a chart like this. Usually this kind of thing happens once every 10 years or so.

UK pay may be taking off but rates will stay grounded for a while yet

July 2, 2015

The Bank of England is seen through columns in LondonBritish wage growth will outstrip the Bank of England’s forecast this year but that doesn’t mean the first rate hike will come sooner.

Brazil’s relentless rate hikes shielding economy from inflation bout

June 16, 2015

Employee arranges pricetags at vegetables work bench during the opening day of upmarket Italian food hall chain Eataly's flagship store in downtown Milan

Brazil’s relentless series of interest rates hikes is successfully lowering inflation expectations – despite recent signs to the contrary, from lottery to tomato prices.

As window closes, Greek activity picks up

By Mike Peacock
June 3, 2015

German Chancellor Merkel and Greek Prime Minister Tsipras leave after addressing news conference in BerlinIt’s still not clear if a Greek deal will be done but the pace of activity has certainly picked up.

The “take it or leave” it moment?

By Mike Peacock
June 2, 2015

German Chancellor Merkel, French President Hollande and European Commission President Juncker arrive to make statements to the media before a meeting with top company executives in Berlin

Five people who hold Greece’s fate in their hands – Angela Merkel, Francois Hollande, Mario Draghi, Jean-Claude Juncker and Christine Lagarde – met for talks in Berlin last night.

Beneath the babble, little sign of Greek progress

By Mike Peacock
June 1, 2015

Greece's Finance Minister Varoufakis and Eurogroup chairman Dijsselbloem talk during an euro zone finance ministers meeting in Brussels

We went into the weekend pondering the Greek government’s expectation that a cash-for-reforms deal would be agreed on Sunday, and we come out the other side with no breakthrough … again.

Core Blimey! Why Britons should look beneath headline inflation

May 20, 2015

???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????We all now know by now that British inflation has dipped to slightly less than zero, its weakest since 1960. Much of the recent weakness is down to the same reason inflation is so low in the euro zone, Britain’s main trading partner: the collapse in the price of oil.

A short tale of two central banks and (roughly) one inflation rate

May 19, 2015

Euro zone inflation rose to zero in April from -0.1 percent and in Britain it fell to -0.1 percent from zero, the first negative reading since the 1960s.

Greeks talk up deal prospects, but what has changed?

By Mike Peacock
May 19, 2015

Greece's Finance Minister Varoufakis and Eurogroup chairman Dijsselbloem talk during an euro zone finance ministers meeting in Brussels

In an epic late-night talk show appearance, Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis said his government was nearing a cash-for-reforms deal with its euro zone partners and the International Monetary Fund that would help it meet debt repayments next month.

ECB sees inflation back by year-end

By Mike Peacock
May 18, 2015

Mersch, Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank presents an oversized newly unveiled 10 euro note at the headquarters of the European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt

An interesting weekend intervention by ECB policymaker Yves Mersch who said there was no question of winding up QE early and that inflation, still skulking around zero, would stay there until autumn then rise sharply late in the year towards 1.5 percent.