Beneath the babble, little sign of Greek progress

By Mike Peacock
June 1, 2015

Greece's Finance Minister Varoufakis and Eurogroup chairman Dijsselbloem talk during an euro zone finance ministers meeting in Brussels

We went into the weekend pondering the Greek government’s expectation that a cash-for-reforms deal would be agreed on Sunday, and we come out the other side with no breakthrough … again.

Core Blimey! Why Britons should look beneath headline inflation

May 20, 2015

???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????We all now know by now that British inflation has dipped to slightly less than zero, its weakest since 1960. Much of the recent weakness is down to the same reason inflation is so low in the euro zone, Britain’s main trading partner: the collapse in the price of oil.

A short tale of two central banks and (roughly) one inflation rate

May 19, 2015

Euro zone inflation rose to zero in April from -0.1 percent and in Britain it fell to -0.1 percent from zero, the first negative reading since the 1960s.

Greeks talk up deal prospects, but what has changed?

By Mike Peacock
May 19, 2015

Greece's Finance Minister Varoufakis and Eurogroup chairman Dijsselbloem talk during an euro zone finance ministers meeting in Brussels

In an epic late-night talk show appearance, Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis said his government was nearing a cash-for-reforms deal with its euro zone partners and the International Monetary Fund that would help it meet debt repayments next month.

ECB sees inflation back by year-end

By Mike Peacock
May 18, 2015

Mersch, Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank presents an oversized newly unveiled 10 euro note at the headquarters of the European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt

An interesting weekend intervention by ECB policymaker Yves Mersch who said there was no question of winding up QE early and that inflation, still skulking around zero, would stay there until autumn then rise sharply late in the year towards 1.5 percent.

French growth leapfrogs Germany’s in Q1

By Mike Peacock
May 13, 2015

The French Pole Emploi stand is seen during the 20th Forum de l'Alternance in Paris

It’s euro zone GDP day. German and French data are already out with Europe’s largest economy growing by 0.3 percent, below both the 0.5 percent forecast and the 0.7 percent achieved in the last three months of 2014.

High Brazil services inflation is hinting at even higher interest rates

May 11, 2015

Brazil's Finance Minister Joaquim Levy delivers a speech during a meeting with businessmen of the France-Brazil Chamber of Commerce in Sao Paulo

Brazil’s monthly inflation rate eased below 1 percent for the first time this year in April and inflation expectations for 2016 have dropped for the first time in two and a half months.

Is the dollar taking over the Fed’s job?

May 5, 2015

US trade










While the surge in the greenback since July has turned up in all sorts of economic data, much of it not good, the big one may have just landed.

Russian rates to fall as rouble rallies

By Mike Peacock
April 30, 2015

German Chancellor Merkel and Greek Prime Minister Tsipras leave after addressing news conference in Berlin

Russia’s central bank is expected to cut interest rates today, following a sharp rally in the rouble in tandem with oil’s recovery.