On non-farm payrolls day, pay attention to pay

September 2, 2015

A pedestrian passes a pawnbroker offering 'payday advances' in Crawley, southern EnglandA lot is riding on the August U.S. jobs report – a good chunk of justification for the first Federal Reserve interest rate rise in nearly a decade and a lot of face-saving at the world’s most powerful central bank.

Weak growth may force India’s central bank to reconsider inflation focus

September 1, 2015

Reserve Bank of India Governor Raghuram Rajan speaks to The Economic Club of New York, in midtown ManhattanFor all its single-minded focus on lowering inflation, India’s central bank may be forced to acknowledge slowing growth in Asia’s third largest economy by cutting interest rates — probably faster than it expected.

Grass getting flattened by fighting FX elephants

August 27, 2015

Young male elephants lock tusks in battle on the plains at the foot of Mount Kilimanjaro in Amboseli national park, southern KenyaThe ongoing race to the bottom for currencies this year is hurtling towards a zero-sum result.

Second Fed rate hike delay this year slowly getting more official

August 27, 2015

RTX1GYLG.jpgFinancial markets have all but shut the door to a Federal Reserve rate hike in September, following a rout in stocks, currencies and commodities this past week, but economy watchers are only now warming up to the idea — in public at least.

Does the Bank of England really follow the Fed?

July 21, 2015

???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????“Daft” is how outgoing Bank of England policymaker David Miles described the idea that Britain’s central bank would have to wait for the U.S. Federal Reserve before hiking interest rates.

Interest rates hikes are not done and dusted

July 20, 2015

U.S. Federal Reserve Board Chair Yellen talks with Carney, Governor of the Bank of England, during the G20 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting in Istanbul

The U.S. and British central banks are scrambling to be the first of the majors to raise interest rates after a long period of unprecedented monetary generosity. It won’t happen immediately but both Janet Yellen, who chairs the U.S. Federal Reserve, and Bank of England Governor Mark Carney say there will be a hike this year (Yellen) or around the end of the year (Carney). Might this be a bit of a rush? Not everything in the world economy is as sanguine as the U.S. and British economies purport to be.

Fed: behind the curve, or too trigger happy? Neither

July 15, 2015

?????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????As the U.S. Federal Reserve edges closer to its first interest hike in nearly a decade, its critics are lining up into one of two camps: either the Fed is hopelessly behind the curve, and will have to grapple with runaway inflation very soon; or the Fed seems overzealous in wanting to get interest rates back to what it would call a normal level and instead should wait until late this year or next before hiking.

Brazil’s relentless rate hikes shielding economy from inflation bout

June 16, 2015

Employee arranges pricetags at vegetables work bench during the opening day of upmarket Italian food hall chain Eataly's flagship store in downtown Milan

Brazil’s relentless series of interest rates hikes is successfully lowering inflation expectations – despite recent signs to the contrary, from lottery to tomato prices.

The end game approaches

By Mike Peacock
June 4, 2015

Greek Prime Minister Tsipras walks with European Commission President Juncker ahead of a meeting at the EU Commission headquarters in Brussels

One way or another, the end game for Greece approaches.

Last night, Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras left talks with senior EU officials in Brussels saying a deal with creditors was “within sight” and that Athens would make a payment due to the IMF on Friday.

As window closes, Greek activity picks up

By Mike Peacock
June 3, 2015

German Chancellor Merkel and Greek Prime Minister Tsipras leave after addressing news conference in BerlinIt’s still not clear if a Greek deal will be done but the pace of activity has certainly picked up.