How much longer can consumers underpin Canada’s economy?

September 23, 2015

RTR4MCGY.jpgThe Bank of Canada is hoping the average Canadian continues to do the heavy lifting for the economy and gets it out of its rut from the first half of the year, even with dangerously high household debt levels. That may be a big ask.

Rate hikes are coming… in Latin America

September 17, 2015

Federal Reserve Board Chair Janet Yellen prepares to testify before a House Financial Services committee hearing on Capitol Hill at in Washington

Latin American central banks are watching today’s Federal Reserve meeting very closely. Some are ready to raise their own interest rates, even if Yellen does not pull the trigger now.

Sweet spot for UK pay could be just the nectar the economy needs

September 16, 2015

RTR309S7.jpgBritish workers have hit a sweet spot with wages rising much faster than near-zero inflation, suggesting the economy could gain further momentum as consumers spend their spare cash.

On non-farm payrolls day, pay attention to pay

September 2, 2015

A pedestrian passes a pawnbroker offering 'payday advances' in Crawley, southern EnglandA lot is riding on the August U.S. jobs report – a good chunk of justification for the first Federal Reserve interest rate rise in nearly a decade and a lot of face-saving at the world’s most powerful central bank.

Weak growth may force India’s central bank to reconsider inflation focus

September 1, 2015

Reserve Bank of India Governor Raghuram Rajan speaks to The Economic Club of New York, in midtown ManhattanFor all its single-minded focus on lowering inflation, India’s central bank may be forced to acknowledge slowing growth in Asia’s third largest economy by cutting interest rates — probably faster than it expected.

Grass getting flattened by fighting FX elephants

August 27, 2015

Young male elephants lock tusks in battle on the plains at the foot of Mount Kilimanjaro in Amboseli national park, southern KenyaThe ongoing race to the bottom for currencies this year is hurtling towards a zero-sum result.

Second Fed rate hike delay this year slowly getting more official

August 27, 2015

RTX1GYLG.jpgFinancial markets have all but shut the door to a Federal Reserve rate hike in September, following a rout in stocks, currencies and commodities this past week, but economy watchers are only now warming up to the idea — in public at least.

Does the Bank of England really follow the Fed?

July 21, 2015

???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????“Daft” is how outgoing Bank of England policymaker David Miles described the idea that Britain’s central bank would have to wait for the U.S. Federal Reserve before hiking interest rates.

Interest rates hikes are not done and dusted

July 20, 2015

U.S. Federal Reserve Board Chair Yellen talks with Carney, Governor of the Bank of England, during the G20 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting in Istanbul

The U.S. and British central banks are scrambling to be the first of the majors to raise interest rates after a long period of unprecedented monetary generosity. It won’t happen immediately but both Janet Yellen, who chairs the U.S. Federal Reserve, and Bank of England Governor Mark Carney say there will be a hike this year (Yellen) or around the end of the year (Carney). Might this be a bit of a rush? Not everything in the world economy is as sanguine as the U.S. and British economies purport to be.