Carney leads analysts to water, but can’t make all of them think

November 12, 2014

BBank of England Governor Mark Carney has given probably the clearest signal that rates aren’t going to rise for another year, and yet many analysts who are paid to predict and track the Bank’s every move seem to be in more of a muddle than ever before.

A Bank of England dovecote?

By Mike Peacock
November 12, 2014

Bank of England Governor and Financial Stability Board (FSB) Chairman Mark Carney arrives for a news conference at the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) in Basel

The Bank of England will produce its quarterly inflation report today. With wage growth still notable by its absence and inflation dropping to just 1.2 percent in September, noises from within the BoE suggest the timing of a first interest rate rise is heading further over the horizon.

The rouble and the hryvnia

By Mike Peacock
November 11, 2014

A reflection of a yearly chart of U.S. dollars and Russian roubles are seen on rouble notes in this illustration picture taken in Warsaw

Ukraine’s currency shed nearly 5 percent on Monday after a weekend that saw the heaviest shelling in a month of the main rebel stronghold in the east and signs that Moscow had dispatched troops and tanks to reinforce separatists. The prospect that a two-month-old ceasefire could collapse has helped drive the currency 12 percent lower since the central bank abandoned an unofficial peg a week ago.

Can Draghi do more?

By Mike Peacock
November 6, 2014

E

It’s ECB day. While the Federal Reserve has called time on its bond-buying and the Bank of Japan decided to create money at a more furious rate, the euro zone central bank will plot the middle course – waiting to gauge the impact of its recent efforts to pump more money into the currency bloc’s economy before entertaining further action.

A first for British politics

By Mike Peacock
October 9, 2014

Nigel Farage, the leader of UKIP drinks a pint of beer in the Gardeners Arms pub in Heywood near Manchester

By this time tomorrow, the anti-EU United Kingdom Independence Party is likely to be celebrating its first member of the Westminster parliament. Polls have just opened in the deprived seaside town of Clacton where the sitting Conservative lawmaker switched to UKIP and called a vote.

Italian and Greek confidence votes

By Mike Peacock
October 8, 2014

Greece's PM Samaras addresses the audience during the Economist Conference on "The big rethink for Europe, the big turning point for Greece" in Athens

You wait ages for a no-confidence vote then two come along on the same day. Neither are expected to cause governments to topple.

Euro falling but no impact on inflation yet

By Mike Peacock
September 30, 2014

Lithuanian 1 euro coins are pictured in the Lithuanian Mint in Vilnius

Euro zone inflation figures are due and after Germany’s rate held steady at 0.8 percent the figure for the currency bloc as a whole could marginally exceed forecasts and hold at 0.4 percent.

An almighty gamble

By Mike Peacock
September 10, 2014

Britain's Prime Minister David Cameron leaves Downing Street in London

Having woken up to the very real possibility of Scotland going it alone, the leaders of Britain’s main parties have scrapped their parliamentary business and headed north to campaign in what amounts to a huge gamble.

Too close to call

By Mike Peacock
September 9, 2014

Cakes are seen at a tea-party organised by members of the group 'English Scots for YES' near Berwick-upon-Tweed on the border between England and Scotland

A second opinion poll in three days has put the Scottish independence vote as too close to call.

What’s it all about, Mario?

By Mike Peacock
September 4, 2014

RTR3OB5X.jpg

It’s ECB day and after Mario Draghi’s recent dramatic utterances, expectation for fresh action has grown, expectations which are likely largely to be dashed.