MacroScope

Frontier sovereign wealth funds

Macroscope has discussed the growth of sovereign wealth funds many times (see here or here). Just to recap, the global state-owned SWF industry is set to more than double in the next 10 years from the current $3 trillion, according to estimates from Deutsche Bank.

John Green, global head of business development at Anglo-African bank Investec, argues that Africa will play a key role in the expansion of SWFs in years to come.

“Africa is very rich in commodities. Africa in aggregate has gone from a significant fiscal deficit, largely funded by aid, to a continent that has a fiscal surplus. That’s what has precipitated a lot of thinking around this issue,” he says.

Green says he agrees with the view that in the next 5 years there will be enough surplus around in many African countries to begin to build future generation funds properly.

Libya is a leader here with the continent’s biggest sovereign wealth fund, which manages $65 billion in assets. Nigeria is working on legislation to create a SWF aimed at softening any impact from falling oil prices.

from Global Investing:

Not going back to platform days

Deflation seems to have replaced inflation as the public enemy No.1 these days.

This might give relief to quite a number of people, including those who thought the resurgence of inflation could take us back to the 1970s.


"We thought we would be wearing platform shoes again, like in the 1970s," says Philip Saunders, head of investment strategy at Investec Asset Management.

"A potential return of inflation is not something people are worried about but maybe that’s what people should be worried about," he told participants at an investment outlook briefing in London.

from Global Investing:

Carry on falling

Graphic evidence from Investec Asset Management (below) highlighting the demise of the carry trade. It shows returns from borrowing low-yielding currencies such as Japanese yen to buy high-yielding ones over the past 7-1/2 years or so.  There has been a roughy 50 percent decline since the end of July.