MacroScope

Market selloff – blip or new crisis?

A trader watches the screen in his terminal on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange in New York

A two-day summit of EU and Asian leaders, which was going to be most notable for a meeting between the heads of Russia and Ukraine, risks being overtaken by financial market tremors which have spread worldwide.

There’s a good case that markets, primed with a glut of new central bank money, had climbed to levels which the state of the economies that underpin them did not justify. With the Federal Reserve about to turn its money taps off, investors seem to have woken up to poor growth prospects in much of the world.

On the other hand, yesterday’s sell-off was sparked at least in part by some sub-par U.S. data and it’s hard to argue that prospects for the world’s largest economy have suddenly taken a turn for the worse.

For Europe – parts of it at least – this is dangerous. If the market rout continues it will hit already-fragile business and consumer confidence and curb spending and investment. The euro zone will be hoping its final September inflation figures, due this morning, are not revised down from a paltry 0.3 percent.

As tumbling stock markets took many of the headlines yesterday, Greece’s 10-year borrowing costs zoomed close to 8 percent – way above the level that would allow Athens to quit the bailout programme hated by its people and return to financing itself on the markets.

ECB in the dock

Protestors left some barbed wire in front of the euro sign landmark outside the headquarters of the ECB before its monthly news conference in Frankfurt

The European Court of Justice holds a first hearing on the legality of the European Central Bank’s Outright Monetary Transactions programme. There won’t be anything definitive today but it serves to rekindle debate about the limits of the ECB’s powers.

In February, the German Constitutional Court asked the European Court to rule on the legality of OMT, the mechanism that drew a line under the euro zone crisis when it was unveiled in 2012. The court may give guidance about how best to make a final ruling which is expected in late spring next year.

The scheme has never been deployed because the mere threat of action prompted government borrowing costs to tumble to record lows. Now, the debate is centred on whether the central bank should start printing money to ward off a deflationary downward spiral.

Of Iraq and Ukraine

Barack Obama’s message that any military support for Iraq’s besieged government is contingent on Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki taking steps to broaden his Shi’ite-dominated government may be having an impact.

Just hours after Maliki’s Shi’ite allies vowed to boycott any cooperation with the biggest Sunni party and his government had accused Sunni neighbour Saudi Arabia of backing “genocide”, Maliki broadcast a joint appeal for national unity alongside Sunni critics of his Shi’ite-led government.

They have tried and failed to come together before but Shi’ite, Sunni and Kurdish leaders met behind closed doors and then stood somewhat frostily before the cameras as Maliki’s predecessor read a statement denouncing “terrorist powers” and supporting Iraqi sovereignty.