EU summit aftermath

By Mike Peacock
July 2, 2012

After the EU summit exceeded expectations the more considered verdict of the markets will dictate in the short-term, certainly until the European Central Bank’s policy meeting on Thursday. Previous summit deals crumbled pretty quickly buying only a few days or even hours of market relief.

Pre-summit discord

By Mike Peacock
June 27, 2012

There is an unusually public level of disagreement going into a key euro zone meeting. EU leaders aren’t helping to foster a sense of united purpose which could calm investors a little.

Euro gang of four – or three versus one?

By Mike Peacock
June 22, 2012

The euro zone’s big four meet in Rome with Germany’s Angela Merkel likely to come under pressure from Italy’s Mario Monti, Spain’s Mariano Rajoy and France’s Francois Hollande to loosen her purse strings and principles.

Spain … Of bonds, banks and bailouts

By Mike Peacock
June 21, 2012

It’s well and truly a Spain day.
Its 10-year yields may have ducked back below the 7 percent pain threshold but Madrid’s auction of two-, three- and five-year bonds could still be tricky. It is only aiming to sell up to 2 billion euros and should manage to thanks largely to weak Spanish banks buying them up but the five-year bond is likely to command yields last seen in 1996.

Glacial progress flagged at G20

By Mike Peacock
June 20, 2012

The G20 summit may have marginally exceeded the lowest common denominator of expectations with euro zone leaders pledging to work on integration of their banking sectors as part of a push towards fiscal union. But it’s not clear that a banking union will happen any quicker than we thought before.

In the shadow of Greek elections

By Mike Peacock
June 14, 2012

Italy, rapidly moving centre stage after the euro zone’s failure to assuage markets with a 100 billion euros Spanish bank bailout, faces a crunch bond auction. Having paid four percent to borrow for a year yesterday, it is likely to fork out over five percent for three-year paper although the smaller than usual target of up to 4.5 billion euros means the sale should get away. It will also issue a smattering of 2019 and 202 bonds.

The end of austerity? Not likely

By Mike Peacock
May 7, 2012

It was Bill Clinton who, after the 2000 U.S. election was thrown into turmoil by Florida’s hanging chads, said the American people had spoken but it was going to take a little time to work out what they had said.
No such dilemma in Greece. A plague on both your houses was the message for the traditional ruling parties PASOK and New Democracy, a result that makes a stable government look a remote possibility and puts a very real question mark over its bailout programme.

The Italian job

By Mike Peacock
April 18, 2012

As we exclusively reported last night, Italy will delay by a year its plan to balance the budget in 2013. That Rome is no longer aiming for a zero budget deficit next year is very different from Spain which has upped its 2012 deficit goal to 5.3 percent of GDP, way above the 3 percent EU limit (though it is aiming for that in 2013).

Italy up for auction

By Mike Peacock
April 12, 2012

All eyes on Italy. After paying sharply higher yields to sell one-year paper on Wednesday, it faces the altogether trickier task of selling up to five billion euros of three-year bonds. Yields are expected to jump by a full percentage point from a month ago but, as with yesterday, demand will be there and the paper should get away.

Today in the euro zone – Bonds, strikes and firewalls

By Mike Peacock
March 29, 2012

Big debt test for Italy which will sell 8 billion euros or more of longer-dated bonds. A short-term T-bill sale went okay on Wednesday but a day before, the secondary market reacted negatively to a sale of zero-coupon and inflation-linked bonds, pushing Italian yields higher.