MacroScope

Press that reset button…

resetbuttonMohamed El-Erian, CEO and co-CIO of the world’s biggest bond fund PIMCO, says 2010 is the beginning of the multi-year resetting of the global economy.

In the period up to the crisis, there were two labels that dominated the world — Great Moderation and Goldilocks. Not too cold, not too hot. 2009 was about crisis management — the label was ‘whatever it takes’. The 2010 label is post-crisis. It’s not just about post-crisis. In our view, 2010 is about multi-year resetting of the global economy. It will be a bumpy journey to the new normal.

Speaking in London ths week, he warned that migration of wealth and growth dynamics of advanced economies to systemically important emerging economies must be on top of investor radar screen in 2010, as well as sovereign risks.

It is the year of sovereign risk. Everyone has to recognise sovereign balance sheets themselves (as) an issue. Sovereigns are
called sovereigns for reasons. Everyone gets influenced.

Inflation Fears, Sputtering Wages

Inflation may not be at the forefront of worries about economy for now, but it’s certainly in the back of many investors’ minds. Not that anyone thinks price increases will be reinforced by the labor market, as per the old “wage-push” theory. A new report from the International Labor Organization showed that wage growth continued to decline around the world in 2008, falling to 1.4 percent last year from 4.3 percent in 2007. The UN group also suggested things have gotten worse this year.

The picture on wages is likely to get worse in 2009 – despite the beginning of a possible economic recovery.   Compared to the annual average of 2008, the real wages in the first quarter of 2009 fell in more than half of the 35 countries for which recent data is available.   The downward trend in wages raises some questions about the extent to which the consumption of workers and their families will be able to sustain aggregate demand for economic production once the effects of government rescue packages peter out.

This trend has not, however, succeeded in calming those spooked by unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimulus from governments and central banks around the world. Indeed, inflation-hedging is creating market niches all of its own. The Treasury, for instance, is expected to bring back 30-year Treasury Inflation Protected Securities, or TIPS, as part of its quarterly refunding announcement on Wednesday. Gorge Goncalves at Cantor Fitzgerald notes:

from Global Investing:

There’s no reset button

Mohamed El-Erian, chief executive officer of PIMCO (not pictured below), painted a bleak picture of the global economy at a press briefing of Allianz Global Investors earlier today.

"This is not the crisis within the global system. This is the crisis of the global system," El-Erian says.

"Internal circuit breakers are meant to deal with crises within the system. The crisis of the system challenges all the circuit breakers. There is no reset button."