Post-Lehman shadows creeping up on German economy again?

October 10, 2014

Germany's Minister of Finance Wolfgang Schauble speaks during a discussion during the World Bank/IMF annual meetings in Washington

The recent stretch of dire economic data from Germany is starting to bear an unfortunate resemblance to late 2008 – when Lehman Brothers collapsed and the world tipped into the worst recession since the Great Depression.

A long haul

By Mike Peacock
September 24, 2014

U.S. Navy handout shows EA-6B Prowler attached to the Garudas of Electronic Attack Squadron 134 landing aboard the aircraft carrier USS George H.W. Bush after conducting strike missions against Islamic State targets, in the Gulf

Having largely sailed through this year’s choppy (to say the least) geopolitical waters, markets are a little discomfited by U.S. air strikes in Syria targeting Islamic State militants … though only a little.

Britain’s export recovery looking a little more elusive

August 1, 2014

It looks like Britain might have to wait a while longer before its much-touted export recovery materialises.

Oh là là, quelle surprise for the French economy

February 14, 2014

French economic growth unexpectedly picked up to 0.3 percent in the final three months of last year, welcome news and a rare positive shock for some particularly gloomy forecasters who were looking for shrinkage or no growth at all.

History suggests rocketing British growth won’t last long

September 4, 2013

Britain’s economy is steaming ahead – by one measure faster than any other large developed or emerging economy – but history suggests it will struggle to sustain the rapid growth indicated in business and confidence surveys.

Turning up?

By Mike Peacock
September 2, 2013

Manufacturing PMI surveys for euro zone countries and Britain will be the latest litmus test of the durability of fledgling economic recoveries.

Something must be done, but what?

By Mike Peacock
June 3, 2013

With little sign of economic recovery in Europe and governments incrementally loosening their austerity drives (Britain being the exception) the focus turns to the big central banks on our patch and what more they might be able to do to foster some recovery.

Scotland catches up with the UK economy – and maybe more?

May 3, 2013


Updated to show Scotland’s composite PMI has bettered the UK equivalent for seven straight months now, after Monday’s data.

Want to know what the ECB is going to do? Watch the German PMI

April 23, 2013

A sudden turn for the worse across German companies should clinch an interest rate cut from the European Central Bank next week, or in June at the latest.

Beware: UK services PMI is no crystal ball for QE

March 5, 2013

Take with a pinch of salt economists who say Tuesday’s strong UK services PMI  might persuade the Bank of England to hold off from restarting its printing presses this week.