President Barack Obama nominating Janet Yellen to head up the U.S. Federal Reserve came as little surprise to market watchers who read Reuters polls.
Ask an economist a question about the euro zone, and the answer will as much depend on the location of their head office as any analysis of the data.
Another month, another rise in the number of jobless in the euro zone.
As expected, the unemployment rate hit a new record 12.2 percent in April, according to Eurostat on Friday, meaning some 19,375,000 euro zone citizens are out of work.
An unusual thing happened on Wednesday amidst all the shouting over British finance minister George Osborne’s autumn budget update which, depending on who you asked, outlined an increasingly dire or healthy state of the UK economy.
The euro zone economy may be doing far worse than most economists want to believe. That’s not good news for a central bank trying to rescue the single currency through a hotly-contested bond purchasing programme that has yet to get started.
U.S. non-farm payrolls have come in below the Reuters Poll consensus for the past four months, the longest streak since an eight-month period in 2008-09 when the U.S. was in the depths of recession and, at one point, losing more than half a million jobs a month.
It’s already been established that economists’ predictions about the euro zone’s future hinge largely on where their employer is based. Euro zone optimists tend to work for euro zone banks and research houses, and euro zone sceptics for companies based outside the currency union.
The chances of a second U.S. recession are rising. But just how high a probability is always difficult to gauge. The latest Reuters consensus from private sector economists – most employed by an industry that got us into the mess – is currently one in four. That’s not very high, but it has crept up from one-in-five when we asked the same people two weeks ago.