Brazil set to release long-overdue jobless rate just as election race heats up

September 25, 2014

Workers at a General Motors vehicle factory listen during a meeting to discuss their reactions to an announcement of plans to put some 1,000 workers on paid leave, in Sao Jose dos CamposBrazil’s unemployment rate has been a mystery for months: a strike in the country’s statistics agency, ironically enough, disrupted its main job market survey. The numbers will finally come out in a few hours, less than two weeks before a tight presidential election, and will help voters understand just how bad the recently-confirmed recession has been.

Euro zone recovery snuffed out

By Mike Peacock
August 14, 2014

A BMW logo is seen the wheel of a car in Mexico City

A glut of euro zone GDP data is landing confirming a markedly poor second quarter for the currency area.

The much-anticipated “capex” boom? It’s already happening, and stocks don’t care

March 21, 2014

It’s a familiar narrative: companies will finally start investing the trillions of dollars of cash they’re sitting on, unleashing a capital expenditure boom that will drive the global economy and lift stock markets this year.

Spanish sums

By Mike Peacock
October 29, 2013

Spanish third quarter GDP figures tomorrow are likely to confirm the Bank of Spain’s prediction that the euro zone’s fourth largest economy has finally put nine quarters of contraction behind it, albeit with growth of just 0.1 percent.

Spain on the way back … to stagnation

By Mike Peacock
July 30, 2013

Spain heads the rest of the euro zone pack with second quarter GDP figures at a time when we’re seeing glimmers of hope, with surveys suggesting the currency area could resume growth in the third quarter.

Morgan Stanley cuts second quarter U.S. GDP forecast to 0.3 percent

July 18, 2013

The surprising weakness in June housing starts is probably only temporary, according to Morgan Stanley economist Ted Wieseman, but the softness in June nonetheless prompted him to cut Morgan Stanley’s Q2 GDP estimate to 0.3 percent from 0.4 percent.

Euro zone week ahead

By Mike Peacock
May 20, 2013

It looks like a week short of blockbusters, particularly today with much of Europe on holiday. But there will be plenty to chew over over the next few days on the state of the euro zone and whether newly-printed central bank money lapping round the world risks throwing things off kilter.

ECB poised to act … modestly

By Mike Peacock
May 2, 2013

It’s European Central Bank day and we have it on very good authority that a quarter-point interest rate cut is on the cards, which will take rates to a record low 0.5 percent. A plunge in euro zone inflation to 1.2 percent, way below the target of close to but below 2 percent, has cemented the case for action.

Austerity — the British test case

By Mike Peacock
April 25, 2013

First quarter UK GDP figures will show whether Britain has succumbed to an unprecedented “triple dip” recession. Economically, the difference between 0.2 percent growth or contraction doesn’t amount to much, and the first GDP reading is nearly always revised at a later date. But politically it’s huge.

France’s downturn is more significant than you think

April 5, 2013

The huge downturn in French businesses was by far the most disappointing aspect of this week’s euro zone PMIs, which again painted a dismal picture of the euro zone economy.