Goldman recession-meter flashes yellow

August 2, 2011

So much for jobs being a lagging indictor. Economists at Goldman Sachs have constructed a handy little model for predicting recessions based on increases in the unemployment rate. We’ll let them explain the details in their own words, but here’s the short of it: If the jobless rate ticks up to 9.3 percent in July from 9.2 percent in June, then stays there in August, the U.S. expansion is toast:

D-day averted, R-word looms

August 2, 2011

The United States appears to have averted a default with a theatrical last-minute agreement to raise the debt ceiling. But it must now grapple with what appears to be the growing threat of a new recession. Consumer spending contracted for the first time in two years in June. At the same time, manufacturing grew at its weakest pace in two years in July, suggesting the third quarter has not gotten off to a very good start.

The U.S. jobless recovery: some context

August 20, 2010

jobless.jpgIn the last comparable recession, which we know wasn’t anywhere near as deep as the Great Recession just endured, U.S. jobless claims peaked at 695,000 in October 1982.

Slowing growth, MPC splits? That’s so 2008

July 21, 2010

Sixties nostalgia was all the rage in the late 90s, and towards the end of the last decade we looked back only 20 years or so for a massive 80s revival in electronic pop and fashion.

Mission not accomplished at central banks

March 15, 2010

U.S.  and Japanese monetary policy does not always move hand in glove, but meetings of  the countries’ respective central banks in the next few days are likely to spell out the same thing — that the job of economic recovery is by no means over.

Financial headcounts stabilize in 2009

By Reuters Staff
February 25, 2010

After financial firms slashed hundreds of thousands of jobs in 2007 and 2008, the bloodletting slowed in 2009 as major banks rebounded from the financial crisis. Even though firms like Goldman Sachs Group Inc and JPMorgan Chase & Co reported billions of dollars in profit, they still did not announce major hiring initiatives.

A grand bargain to solve global imbalances

February 17, 2010

Michael Pettis, a professor and China expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, has put together a thorough and informative look at all things U.S.-China trade. It’s well worth reading and watching the entire thing, but here’s a few highlights that jump out:

from UK News:

Has Alistair Darling done enough to revive Labour’s electoral hopes?

By Reuters Staff
December 9, 2009

So how was it for you?

Chancellor Alistair Darling threw the dice in his pre-budget report in an attempt to bolster Labour's chances of winning the general election in 2010.

Chicago and the toddlin’ recovery

November 23, 2009

It may not get as much attention as the monthly employment report or GDP figures, but the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago’s gauge of the national economy has a good track record of distinguishing economic expansions from recessions. And it’s suggesting that the U.S. recovery may be wobbling.

from Route to Recovery:

Learning to live with less, and appreciating it

November 9, 2009

ROUTE-RECOVERY/

BELLA VISTA, Arkansas – For a man who has had his salary cut 10 percent and now has to work hard to make it to his next paycheck, Denny Robertson is in a philosophical frame of mind.