UK heading for second downturn?

July 17, 2009

MacroScope is pleased to post the following from guest blogger Julian Chillingworth. Chillingworth is chief investment officer of UK investor Rathbones. He questions here whether Britain will face a second downturn shortly after struggling out of recession.

U.S. economic hole looking shallower

July 10, 2009

May’s U.S. trade figures have economists feeling quite a bit better about second-quarter GDP. The surprising strength in exports should provide a big lift.

Things for an economist to do on a Friday

July 10, 2009

Three things for the economy-minded to be doing on a Friday in July:

– Study a very, very clever interactive graphic from the New York Times showing that the business cycle is far from round. Here.

Crisis, what crisis, time again in Britain

July 7, 2009

Britain’s recession, like the downturns in most other places, is being hailed as either having reachえd bottom or tailed off in its decline. The latest to trumpet the beginning of the end is the British Chambers of Commerce, which said business orders and sales had continued to fall in the second quarter but at a slower pace than previously.

Saint Augustine and the U.S. consumer

June 30, 2009

Johns Hopkins University economist Christopher Carroll thinks U.S. consumers have finally got religion when it comes to saving, after years of free spending. For the sake of the broader economy, he is hoping they take to heart the prayer of Saint Augustine.

Mr. Green Shoots in an orange jumpsuit?

June 29, 2009

Economist James Hamilton was pretty offended by the rough treatment of Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke last week at the hands of some U.S. politicians. But when he put up a defense of the Fed chief on his blog, he got an earful from readers who were critical of the U.S. central bank and suspicious over its role in the financial crisis and last year’s bank bailouts.

U.S. state budgets battered by recession

June 26, 2009

Eighteen months into the worst recession in decades, and the pain of the downturn is reaching into nearly every U.S. state, city and municipality.

Oil, the U.S. dollar, and those green shoots

May 26, 2009

This sounds awfully familiar. Oil prices have risen sharply from a March trough, while the U.S. dollar has fallen 10 percent against a basket of currencies. A bad 2008 flashback? Not quite.   

from Raw Japan:

Spring blossoms or just a break from winter?

May 20, 2009

It's official: Japan's economy shrivelled at a record pace in the first quarter.

Needless to say the 4.0 percent contraction in GDP (an annual rate of 15.2 percent, if you speak American) from January to March was not pretty -- especially when you see that the pain has spread from Japan's big autos and tech factories to the broader economy.JAPAN-ECONOMY/

What goes down must come up

May 1, 2009

Like every recession before it, this slump will end. Some day. JPMorgan economist Bruce Kasman thinks that day may come sooner than expected.