MacroScope

Allocation to herd: 100 percent

They’re bleating and buying. And you had better not let them run you over.

The latest Reuters surveys of global asset managers confirm what we’ve all been watching over the past month: a mad rush out of safe havens and into stock markets. There seems to be little else to report out of financial markets.

That stampede, particularly into U.S. shares by U.S. money managers, clocked the single biggest rise in equity allocations since at least 2007, before the financial crisis began, according to the latest Reuters poll data. The rush into global stocks by investment firms all over the world was the biggest in at least three years.

Other reports are saying the same thing.

What is more puzzling, other than a desperate need for change, is why.

It’s clear that most people any way connected to debates in financial markets are tired of all the doom and gloom and don’t mind taking a more positive view. But is that enough?

The euro zone crisis has not just ebbed. It seems to have gone practically dormant. (Never mind that more than half of young Spaniards haven’t got a job. Or that we ought to be wary of calling an end to things that once seemed like they would never stop.)

The U.S. property market is showing some signs of life, with widespread price rises. (Never mind that the economy shrank in the final months of 2012 for the first time since it escaped from recession in 2009. Or that political gridlock is clearly damaging business and job prospects).

from Jeremy Gaunt:

And the investor survey says…

Reuters asset allocation polls for August are out. They show very little change from July, which suggests investors are still cautious and uncertain about what is happening.

One big difference, month-on-month, was a large jump into investment grade corporate debt.  Andrew Milligan of Standard Life Investments reckons this  may in part  have been because  sovereign debt rallied so much over summer that returns from government bonds are now too meagre.

Here is the big picture:

Poll