Serious deflation risks in the euro zone mean it is no longer a question of if, but when the ECB will purchase sovereign bonds — at least among many of those who are paid to forecast policy.
The two forecasting teams that came closest to predicting the U.S. economy would nearly stall in the first quarter expect other key economic data due this week to be strong.
This time last year, analysts and investors were nearly unanimous in their expectation for a whole lot of nothing from Britain’s economy which, after a valiant leap higher from a spectacularly successful 2012 Olympic Games hosted in London, was back to just bumping along.
Ask three different economists and you’ll get three different answers.
While that’s not anything new, the different ways some analysts have spun the surprise — one of the biggest on U.S. data in many months — is exceptionally far from anything resembling a consensus.
Ask an economist a question about the euro zone, and the answer will as much depend on the location of their head office as any analysis of the data.
Reuters has just published a poll of economists that shows Federal Reserve Vice-Chair Janet Yellen is the overwhelming favorite pick for President Obama to replace Ben Bernanke as Fed Chairman next year.