ECB QE drifts from if to when, say many analysts

December 4, 2014

RTR3OB5X.jpgSerious deflation risks in the euro zone mean it is no longer a question of if, but when the ECB will purchase sovereign bonds — at least among many of those who are paid to forecast policy.

Doves taking flight on when BoE to hike

November 17, 2014

A turtledove flies on the beach front in Nice

Doubts over just how soon the Bank of England can raise interest rates have been growing in recent weeks as Britain’s recovery looks in danger, inflation remains stubbornly low and concerns about the euro zone intensify.

Most accurate U.S. growth forecasters say to brace for stronger data this week

April 30, 2014

Arrows shot by Olympic hopeful and member of the U.S. archery team Gibilaro are seen in the target in BranfordThe two forecasting teams that came closest to predicting the U.S. economy would nearly stall in the first quarter expect other key economic data due this week to be strong.

ECB still the major source of funding for banks

April 30, 2014

European Central Bank President Draghi smiles during the monthly ECB news conference in FrankfurtThe European Central Bank is still the main funding source for banks even if it is not acting as lender of last resort for governments in the currency bloc.

Britain’s economic sprint probably tripled U.S. growth in Q1

April 28, 2014

What a difference a year makes.

This time last year, analysts and investors were nearly unanimous in their expectation for a whole lot of nothing from Britain’s economy which, after a valiant leap higher from a spectacularly successful 2012 Olympic Games hosted in London, was back to just bumping along.

U.S. new home sales: the good, the bad and the ugly

April 23, 2014

What’s happening with the U.S. housing market?

Ask three different economists and you’ll get three different answers.

While that’s not anything new, the different ways some analysts have spun the surprise — one of the biggest on U.S. data in many months — is exceptionally far from anything resembling a consensus.

How to play down a housing boom like it’s 1999

October 16, 2013

Here’s some of the top reasons from a 1999 Reuters poll on why a housing bubble wouldn’t form, which are re-appearing 14 years later.

Stocks to rise? 85 percent say yes – as ever

October 11, 2013

Even a government shutdown and the prospect of an unprecedented U.S. government default – no matter how small – couldn’t shake the conviction among equity analysts that stock markets only have further to rise.

Forecasts for the euro zone depend more on head office location than analysis

June 27, 2013

Ask an economist a question about the euro zone, and the answer will as much depend on the location of their head office as any analysis of the data.

Yellen likely to replace Bernanke at Fed, but beware “overwhelming” top picks

June 12, 2013

Reuters has just published a poll of economists that shows Federal Reserve Vice-Chair Janet Yellen is the overwhelming favorite pick for President Obama to replace Ben Bernanke as Fed Chairman next year.