The great flatline of wage expectations

December 5, 2014

It’s not just wages around the industrialised world that are flatlining. So are expectations.

Brazil may have escaped recession, but not the minefield

November 26, 2014

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Brazil’s newly-re-elected government is set to announce on Friday that the recession that began at the start of 2014 is now over. But a minefield of risks surrounding Latin America’s largest economy recommends caution before celebration.

German financial sentiment surprises itself

November 18, 2014

Financial analysts, usually pretty good at forecasting what financial analysts think, all of a sudden are looking in a cracked mirror, at least in Germany.

Carney leads analysts to water, but can’t make all of them think

November 12, 2014

BBank of England Governor Mark Carney has given probably the clearest signal that rates aren’t going to rise for another year, and yet many analysts who are paid to predict and track the Bank’s every move seem to be in more of a muddle than ever before.

Post-Lehman shadows creeping up on German economy again?

October 10, 2014

Germany's Minister of Finance Wolfgang Schauble speaks during a discussion during the World Bank/IMF annual meetings in Washington

The recent stretch of dire economic data from Germany is starting to bear an unfortunate resemblance to late 2008 – when Lehman Brothers collapsed and the world tipped into the worst recession since the Great Depression.

UK rate consensus nearly rock-solid even as markets flip-flop over timing

August 20, 2014

BFor all of the flip-flopping in sterling markets in recent months over when the Bank of England will finally lift interest rates off their lowest floor in more than 300 years, the consensus view among forecasters has been remarkably stable.

Tight consensus on China’s growth rate not reflecting real range of opinion

July 16, 2014

AChina’s economy, even to a non-specialist given a few minutes to stop and think, is clearly extremely difficult to measure.

Spain’s early bath a surprise to economists

June 19, 2014

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Much the same as economists often struggle to accurately predict data releases, their initial thoughts on how the soccer World Cup will pan out also appear to have been misguided.
While Brazil, the clear favourite to win in a Reuters poll of over 120 football-loving market analysts, is clinging on after a nil-nil draw with Mexico on Tuesday it’s a different story for Spain.

Bank of England Minutes give rate debate another twist

June 19, 2014

 

carney.jpgSpeculation about when the Bank of England hikes interest rates took a new twist on Wednesday after minutes from the June policy meeting struck a less hawkish tone than the Governor did in a speech late last week.

UK rate rise this year? Possible, but not certain yet

June 13, 2014

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“It could happen sooner than markets currently expect.”

That was the bomb of a headline Bank of England Mark Carney dropped in a speech on Thursday that suggested a significant change in tone at the bank.