British first quarter growth probably not as bad as reported

April 27, 2016

A man walks up steps in the City of LondonBritish economic growth slowed to 0.4 percent at the start of the year, a preliminary release showed as expected on Wednesday, but the real picture may well be better.

Tepid UK wage growth may end calls for early BoE hike

February 17, 2016

A herder is seen between a caravan of camels, roped to each other tail-to-mouth, which haul blocks of salt from desert mines up the winding tracks for sale in Ethiopia's Afar highlands, March 7, 2007. The mysterious kidnapping of five Europeans and eight locals has put the international spotlight on a remote, barren and searingly hot corner of Ethiopia left behind by the modern world. The Afar region's 1.4 million inhabitants -- mainly nomads -- occupy one of the earth's harshest terrains. REUTERS/Radu Sigheti (ETHIOPIA) - RTR1N70J

Wednesday’s British pay data showing wages rose only 1.9 percent in the fourth quarter could well be the straw that broke the camel’s back for anyone still expecting the Bank of England to raise interest rates anytime soon.

Indian central bank to hold its horses while others bolt

February 15, 2016

A member of the Sikh Nihang warrior sect, mounts two racing horses during the annual "Rural Olympics" on February 22 in the village of Kilaraipur in India's northern state of Punjab. The three-day festival, in its 55th year, began on February 21. - RTXHNV1

Financial markets and borrowers rooting for the Reserve Bank of India to ease policy this year could be in for a disappointment – in stark contrast to 2015 when it lopped 125 basis points off the repo rate.

Kicking the can down the road on British rates – again

January 28, 2016

Bank of England Governor Mark Carney speaks during the bank's quarterly inflation report news conference at the Bank of England in London August 13, 2014. The Bank of England forecast on Wednesday that wages would grow far more slowly than previously expected and linked their rate of increase closely to borrowing costs, suggesting it was in no hurry to raise Britain's record low interest rates.  REUTERS/Suzanne Plunkett   (BRITAIN - Tags: BUSINESS POLITICS) - RTR4299J

Forecasts for when the Bank of England will raise rates have been put off into the future for the seventh time since Mark Carney became Bank of England Governor nearly three years ago.

Reserve Bank of India may cut rates even more than expected this year

January 20, 2016

Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Raghuram Rajan attends a news conference in Mumbai, India, December 1, 2015. REUTERS/Shailesh Andrade - RTX1WLY7

The Reserve Bank of India is widely expected to cut interest rates just once in 2016, as most analysts see retail inflation rising slightly above the central bank’s target, but there is a decent chance it could cut more aggressively, as it did last year.

Hawkish holdout UniCredit joins the rush to push back BoE hike calls

January 15, 2016

Commuters brave the rush hour on the northern line on the London underground in London, Britain August 5, 2015. Londoners face major transport disruption from Wednesday evening as train drivers and staff on the underground rail network walk out for the second time in less than a month. Unions are angry over plans to introduce a new night service from September and weeks of talks with transport bosses have failed to clinch a deal over pay and conditions.   REUTERS/Dylan Martinez  TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY - RTX1N70F

After Bank of England policymakers once again voted 8-1 in favour of keeping British interest rates on hold at a record low, UniCredit just got on board with a carriage full of other major banks and pushed back its call for when the initial rate rise would come.

Prospects still slim for major global economic pickup

December 22, 2015

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The world economy may be set for another year like 2015, with modest growth in developed economies offsetting persistent weakness elsewhere but generating very little inflation and keeping interest rates low.

UK trade misses target again. It’s time to look at the targets.

December 10, 2015

Another month, another round of disappointing British trade data.

Given it happens with such regularity, economists might be forgiven for viewing Thursday’s news of a widening goods trade deficit as a routine addition to Britain’s murky trade outlook.

November U.S. jobs report could be a bright spot in fading outlook for hiring

December 4, 2015

Federal Reserve Board Chair Janet Yellen testifies before the House Financial Services Committee on the "Federal Reserve's Supervision and Regulation of the Financial System" in Washington November 4, 2015.       REUTERS/Gary Cameron  - RTX1UQNK

The U.S. November jobs report is expected shortly, and in all likelihood it will be a solid one. But forecasts around future employment are not quite so optimistic.

Potholes could be dead ahead in the road soon after Fed rate hike

November 20, 2015

Patches on top of patches covering potholes litter a road in Sonoma County, California, May 9, 2013. Harrison, a local resident and attorney, is part of a grass-roots campaign to fix the crumbling roads of Sonoma County, which is struggling with the same type of government financial crisis that has driven California cities such as Stockton and San Bernardino into bankruptcy. Picture taken May 9, 2013.   REUTERS/Beck Diefenbach   (UNITED STATES - Tags: BUSINESS TRAVEL) - RTX1053C

The Federal Reserve’s planned smooth and gradual rate hike path may be bumpier than anticipated if U.S. economic growth over the next several months and punishingly cold winter weather follow a well-established recent pattern.