The Bank of England has told us time and time again that pay growth is key to the interest rate outlook.
The rapid erosion of Brazil’s job market is taking most economists by surprise, an analysis of Reuters Polls data shows, in a worrying sign that already-grim expectations for Latin America’s largest economy have not been pessimistic enough.
A year and a half after Citi became the first major bank to pencil a Bank of England interest rate hike into their forecasts, nobody appears to be any more sure of when this actually will happen.
Brazil’s newly-re-elected government is set to announce on Friday that the recession that began at the start of 2014 is now over. But a minefield of risks surrounding Latin America’s largest economy recommends caution before celebration.
Bank of England Governor Mark Carney has given probably the clearest signal that rates aren’t going to rise for another year, and yet many analysts who are paid to predict and track the Bank’s every move seem to be in more of a muddle than ever before.
The recent stretch of dire economic data from Germany is starting to bear an unfortunate resemblance to late 2008 – when Lehman Brothers collapsed and the world tipped into the worst recession since the Great Depression.