The recent stretch of dire economic data from Germany is starting to bear an unfortunate resemblance to late 2008 – when Lehman Brothers collapsed and the world tipped into the worst recession since the Great Depression.
For all of the flip-flopping in sterling markets in recent months over when the Bank of England will finally lift interest rates off their lowest floor in more than 300 years, the consensus view among forecasters has been remarkably stable.
Much the same as economists often struggle to accurately predict data releases, their initial thoughts on how the soccer World Cup will pan out also appear to have been misguided.
While Brazil, the clear favourite to win in a Reuters poll of over 120 football-loving market analysts, is clinging on after a nil-nil draw with Mexico on Tuesday it’s a different story for Spain.
Speculation about when the Bank of England hikes interest rates took a new twist on Wednesday after minutes from the June policy meeting struck a less hawkish tone than the Governor did in a speech late last week.
“It could happen sooner than markets currently expect.”
That was the bomb of a headline Bank of England Mark Carney dropped in a speech on Thursday that suggested a significant change in tone at the bank.
Faith that the U.S. economy may finally be at a turning point for the better appears to be on the rise, as many ramp up expectations for a better Q2 and second half of the year.
The May U.S. non-farm payroll report on Friday may be a much less volatile affair than last month, when shock news of 288,000 new jobs topped even the most optimistic views.