Post-Lehman shadows creeping up on German economy again?

October 10, 2014

Germany's Minister of Finance Wolfgang Schauble speaks during a discussion during the World Bank/IMF annual meetings in Washington

The recent stretch of dire economic data from Germany is starting to bear an unfortunate resemblance to late 2008 – when Lehman Brothers collapsed and the world tipped into the worst recession since the Great Depression.

UK rate consensus nearly rock-solid even as markets flip-flop over timing

August 20, 2014

BFor all of the flip-flopping in sterling markets in recent months over when the Bank of England will finally lift interest rates off their lowest floor in more than 300 years, the consensus view among forecasters has been remarkably stable.

Tight consensus on China’s growth rate not reflecting real range of opinion

July 16, 2014

AChina’s economy, even to a non-specialist given a few minutes to stop and think, is clearly extremely difficult to measure.

Spain’s early bath a surprise to economists

June 19, 2014

worldcup.jpg

Much the same as economists often struggle to accurately predict data releases, their initial thoughts on how the soccer World Cup will pan out also appear to have been misguided.
While Brazil, the clear favourite to win in a Reuters poll of over 120 football-loving market analysts, is clinging on after a nil-nil draw with Mexico on Tuesday it’s a different story for Spain.

Bank of England Minutes give rate debate another twist

June 19, 2014

 

carney.jpgSpeculation about when the Bank of England hikes interest rates took a new twist on Wednesday after minutes from the June policy meeting struck a less hawkish tone than the Governor did in a speech late last week.

UK rate rise this year? Possible, but not certain yet

June 13, 2014

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“It could happen sooner than markets currently expect.”

That was the bomb of a headline Bank of England Mark Carney dropped in a speech on Thursday that suggested a significant change in tone at the bank.

Canada housing: This time it’s different, eh

June 11, 2014

AResults are in from the latest Reuters poll on Canada’s rampant property market from economists and market analysts, and the message is everything’s fine.

Better U.S. growth and just muddling along both point to low rates for longer

June 10, 2014

UFaith that the U.S. economy may finally be at a turning point for the better appears to be on the rise, as many ramp up expectations for a better Q2 and second half of the year.

Euro needs the Fed, or QE, for the next leg down

June 9, 2014

EIt has become increasingly clear it takes a lot more than words to sink the euro.

U.S. May non-farm payrolls may be a calmer affair after April shock

June 4, 2014

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The May U.S. non-farm payroll report on Friday may be a much less volatile affair than last month, when shock news of 288,000 new jobs topped even the most optimistic views.