The bulls were out in force again in Thursday’s quarterly Reuters poll of around 350 equity analysts – some 91.3 percent of forecasts for 20 major stock indexes predicted gains from here until the end of next year.
That might sound incredibly optimistic – but last year, on the whole, they weren’t optimistic enough.
Most striking is how the consensus completely missed the Nikkei’s near-50 percent rise. U.S. stocks have strongly outperformed the expectations too. On the other side, the emerging markets have been a big disappointment, especially Brazil.
But it’s also worth noting forecasters were very accurate in many cases, being within 5 percent of the Dec 11 close in eight out of the 20 indexes. Of course, all this could change in the final trading days of the year, but this chart gives an idea on how analysts have fared over the last year. Click to enlarge