Italy’s High Noon

By Mike Peacock
September 9, 2013

Silvio Berlusconi’s political future – upon which both Italian and euro zone stability rest to varying degrees – is up for debate when a Senate committee meets on Monday to begin discussions that could end with formal procedures to expel him from the Senate. Talks could last for days.

Euro zone rate cut prospects evaporate

By Mike Peacock
August 27, 2013

The euro zone is growing again and while its weaker constituents face plenty of tough times yet, it seems less and less likely that the European Central Bank will cut interest rates from their record low 0.5 percent. That illustrates the problems of the new fad of forward guidance.

Event risk

By Mike Peacock
August 1, 2013

If you’re hankering after “event risk”, look no further. Europe can offer top central bank meetings, front line economic data, a debt auction and more political risk than you can shake a stick at today.

Spain on the way back … to stagnation

By Mike Peacock
July 30, 2013

Spain heads the rest of the euro zone pack with second quarter GDP figures at a time when we’re seeing glimmers of hope, with surveys suggesting the currency area could resume growth in the third quarter.

Central bank guides

By Mike Peacock
July 17, 2013

The Bank of England will publish the minutes of Mark Carney’s first policy meeting earlier this month which will pored over for signs of how the debate about forward guidance – it’s all the rage in the central banking world now – went, and whether that may herald more money printing or act as a proxy for looser policy.

Just a typical euro zone day

By Mike Peacock
July 16, 2013

Spain will sell up to four billion euros of six- and 12-month treasury bills, prior to a full bond auction on Thursday. Italy attracted only anaemic demand at auction last week and Madrid has already had to pay more to borrow since the Federal Reserve shook up the markets with its blueprint for an exit from QE.

Portugal, ECB, Turkey — trials and tribulations

By Mike Peacock
July 12, 2013

How to pull defeat from the jaws of victory in one easy lesson; look no further than Portugal.

Forward guidance; will it work?

By Mike Peacock
July 5, 2013

After the European Central Bank broke with tradition and gave forward guidance that interest rates will not rise for an “extended period” and could even fall, some of its members – including French policymakers Benoit Coeure and Christian Noyer, and Bundesbank chief Jens Weidmann – head to an annual gathering in the south of France.

A day to reckon with

By Mike Peacock
July 4, 2013

This could be a perfect storm of a day for the euro zone.

Portugal’s prime minister will attempt to shore up his government after the resignation of his finance and foreign ministers in successive days. The latter is threatening to pull his party out of the coalition but has decided to talk to the premier, Pedro Passos Coelho, to try and keep the show on the road.

Oscar Wilde and the euro zone

By Mike Peacock
July 3, 2013

To paraphrase Oscar Wilde, to lose one looks like misfortune, to lose two smacks of carelessness.
Portugal’s government has been plunged into crisis with the foreign minister resigning a day after the finance minister did, the latter complaining that the public would not tolerate his austerity drive.