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from Global Markets Forum Dashboard:

GMF @HedgeWorld West, World Bank/IMF and Financial & Risk Summit Toronto 2014

(Updates with guest photos and new links).

Join our special coverage Oct. 6-10 in the Global Markets Forum as we hit the road, from the West Coast to Washington to the Great White North.

GMF will be live next week from the HedgeWorld West conference in Half Moon Bay, California, where we’ll be blogging insight from speakers including Peter Thiel, former San Francisco 49ers great Steve Young and other panelists' viewpoints on the most important investment themes, allocation strategies, reputation risk management ideas and more.

 

 

Eric Burl, COO, Man Investments USA

Eric Burl, COO, Man Investments USA

Our LiveChat guests at HedgeWorld West include Jay Gould, founder of the California Hedge Fund Association, on Monday; Rachel Minard, CEO of Minard Capital on Tuesday; and Eric Burl, COO of Man Investments, on Wednesday discussing the evolving global investor. If you have questions for them, be sure to join us in the GMF to post your questions and comment.

Follow GMF’s conference coverage and post questions live via our twitter feed @ReutersGMF as well, where we’ll post comments from other HedgeWorld panelists. They include: 

    Peter Algert, Founder and CIO, Algert Global Adrian Fairbourn, Managing Partner, Exception Capital Nancy Davis, Founder & CIO, Quadratic Capital R. Kipp deVeer, CEO, Ares Capital Judy Posnikoff, Managing Partner, PAAMCO Caroline Lovelace, Founding Partner, Pine Street Alternative Asset Management Cleo Chang, Chief Investment Officer, Wilshire Funds Management Brian Igoe, CIO, Rainin Group Mark Guinney, Managing Partner, The Presidio Group

In a preview of the HedgeWorld West conference, Rachel Minard said what matters most to investors today is "not so much what something is

Rachel Minard, CEO of Minard Capital

Rachel Minard, CEO of Minard Capital

called but what is its behavior," she told the forum. "What investment instruments are being used -- what is the ROI relative to cost, liquidity, volatility, market exposure, price/rates and is this the most "efficient" method by which to achieve return. What's great from our perspective is the meritocracy of the business today -- the proof necessary to validate the effective and sustainable ROI of any fund or investment strategy."

Not bullish enough! How predictions for stocks in 2013 are turning out

The bulls were out in force again in Thursday’s quarterly Reuters poll of around 350 equity analysts – some 91.3 percent of forecasts for 20 major stock indexes predicted gains from here until the end of next year.

That might sound incredibly optimistic – but last year, on the whole, they weren’t optimistic enough.

Most striking is how the consensus completely missed the Nikkei’s near-50 percent rise. U.S. stocks have strongly outperformed the expectations too. On the other side, the emerging markets have been a big disappointment, especially Brazil.

Olé! Getting to grips with the stock market bulls


The stock market bulls were out in force again in the latest Reuters poll of equity analysts and investors, conducted this week.

Taking the consensus at face value, further gains for stock markets look a sure-fire bet. However, their forecasts ought to be taken with a dose of common sense and a basic grasp of how the past has panned out.

Part of the reason for their optimism is simple herd mentality – that a positive view of the stock market will be mutually reinforcing.

SEC has power to ban high-frequency trading, congressman says

Not everyone agrees that using high-speed machines to trade stocks in less time than it takes the average person to blink is a bad thing, but the people who do might be heartened by the letter a congressman sent the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on Friday.

Rep. Edward Markey, a Massachusetts Democrat who has waged a decades-long struggle against computerized trading sent the SEC a hint: The power to curb high-frequency trading has been within its grasp all along.

In his letter, Markey described a law he co-sponsored in 1989 to increase the agency’s power to regulate computerized trading, a precursor to HFT that employed computer programs to make trading decisions without the participation of conscious humans. The law lets the SEC “limit practices which result in extraordinary levels of volatility,” according to Markey’s citation.

Safe-haven Canada

The European crisis has thinned the ranks of countries considered safe-havens for investors, and may be contributing to an increase in foreign ownership of Canadian assets. Canada, whose comparatively robust banking sector helped it weather the 2008-2009 financial crisis better than many peers, saw capital inflows in July that helped reverse a June decline, according to the latest figures.

Foreigners resumed their net purchases of Canadian securities in July, taking on C$6.67 billion ($6.88 billion) after having reduced their holdings by C$7.76 billion in June, Statistics Canada said on Monday. Canadian authorities have said foreign investors view Canada as a safe haven. So far this year foreigners have made C$41.23 billion in net purchases, a substantial amount though down from C$54.31 billion seen in the first seven months of 2011.

According to Charles St-Arnaud, economist at Nomura, stocks saw their biggest inflow since February 2011:

Foreign investors still buying American

Overseas investors have yet to sour towards U.S. assets despite high government debt levels, according the latest figures on capital flows.

Including short-dated assets such as bills, foreigners snapped up $107.7 billion in U.S. securities in February, following a downwardly revised $3.1 billion inflow for January. At the same time, the United States attracted a net long-term capital inflow of just $10.1 billion in February after drawing an upwardly revised $102.4 billion in the first month of 2012.

The data showed China boosted purchases of U.S. government debt for a second month in February, but also some waning of demand for longer-dated securities.

Euro zone perspective – nowhere near out of the woods

After the Easter break, a bit of perspective — to paraphrase the immortal Spinal Tap, maybe too much perspective.

Over the past two weeks, Spanish and Italian borrowing costs have continued to rise – in the former’s case they have now relinquished more than half their fall since December and are heading back into the danger zone. Stocks have also appeared to have given up on their first quarter rally, presumably testament to the realization that the ECB and other top central banks are unlikely to be writing any more blank cheques for banks to reinvest.

Late last year, it was Italy that seemed to have the power to drag Spain into the debt crisis mire. Now, it’s the other way round and after the ECB anaesthesia  wears off, it’s clear the euro zone patient is still sickly.

Stocks rally not sustainable: Prudential

Want the recent rally in stocks to last? Don’t count on it, says John Praveen of Prudential Financial. The Dow Jones industrial average is up over 20 percent since September, and has gained 7 percent since the start of the year. But Praveen sees too many headwinds for the boom to continue.

The pace of gains thus far in 2012 is likely to be unsustainable and volatility is likely to remain high as several downside risks remain. These include:

1) Greek risks: The second Greek bailout and debt restructuring deal are likely to be a short-term reprieve, with still high Greek debt/GDP burden and Greek elections due in April.  A negative election outcome with no clear mandate and/or a new government reneging on its commitments (to reduce debt) could potentially roil markets.

from Global Investing:

Emerging consumers’ pain to spell gains for stocks in staples

Food and electricity bills are high. The cost of filling up at the petrol station isn't coming down much either. The U.S. economy is in trouble and suddenly the job isn't as secure as it seemed. Maybe that designer handbag and new car aren't such good ideas after all.

That's the kind of decision millions of middle class consumers in developing countries are facing these days. That's bad news for purveyors of everything from jeans to iphones  who have enjoyed double-digit profits thanks to booming sales in emerging markets.

Brazil is the best example of how emerging market consumers are tightening their belts. Thanks to their spending splurge earlier this decade, Brazilian consumers on average see a quarter of their income disappear these days on debt repayments. People's credit card bills can carry interest rates of up to 45 percent. The central bank is so worried about the growth outlook it stunned markets with a cut in interest rates this week even though inflation is running well above target

from Jeremy Gaunt:

Getting there from here

Depending on how you look at it, August may not have been as bad a month for stocks as advertised. For the month as a whole, the MSCI all-country world stock index  lost more than 7.5 percent.  This was the worst performance since May last year, and the worst August since 1998.

But if you had bought in at the low on August 9, you would have gained  healthy 8.5 percent or so.

In a similar vein, much is made of the fact that the S&P 500 index  ended 2009 below the level it started 2000, in other words, took a loss in the decade.