The promise of middle age

February 28, 2011

The wave of popular discontent now sweeping the Middle East and North Africa has been driven by the region’s youth, frustrated by chronic umemployment and enraged by widespread corruption.

from Global Investing:

Solar activities and market cycles

November 29, 2010

Can nature's cycles enrich our finance and market theories?

Market predictions based on the alignment of the sun, moon and the earth and other cycles could help investors stay disciplined and profit in economic storms, says Daniel Shaffer, CEO of Shaffer Asset Management.

from Global Investing:

Clever Fed

November 4, 2010

Proof  that a little surprise can be quite big.

Ahead of the Federal Reserve's decision on more quantitative easing there were three possible outcomes that  could have threatened what is becoming a strong global equity rally. In short:

from Global Investing:

Investors love those emerging markets

October 28, 2010

No question that investors are in the throes of passion over emerging markets. The latest Reuters asset allocation polls show investors pouring money into Asian and Latin American stocks in October to the detriment of U.S. and euro zone equities. Exposure to equities in emerging Europe, Asia ex-Japan, Latin America and Africa/Middle East rose to 15.6 percent of a typical stock portfolio from 14.3 percent a month earlier.

from Global Investing:

Bad economic data, please

October 14, 2010

Interesting twist at the moment - how are financial markets going to view not-so-bad or good data out of the United States in the run-up to the next Federal Reserve meeting.

from Jeremy Gaunt:

And the investor survey says…

August 31, 2010

Reuters asset allocation polls for August are out. They show very little change from July, which suggests investors are still cautious and uncertain about what is happening.

from Jeremy Gaunt:

Wishful thinking on earnings?

August 26, 2010

The U.S. earnings season is over bar a handful of firms. It has been robust to say the least: Thomson Reuters Proprietary Research calculates that S&P 500 companies overall had second-quarter earnings growth of 38.4 percent. That was 11 percentage points higher than people had been expecting heading into the season.

from Jeremy Gaunt:

Micro versus macro

August 4, 2010

There is little doubt that the latest U.S. earnings season has been a good one for long-equity  investors. Thomson Reuters Proprietary Research calculates that with 67 percent of S&P 500 companies having reported, EPS growth -- both actual and that still forecast for those who have not filed yet -- has come in at 36 percent.

from Global Investing:

What fund managers think

June 16, 2010

Bank of America-Merrill Lynch's monthly poll of around 200 fund managers had a few nuggets in the June version, aside from the usual mood-taking.

Greek Contagion: One Hell of a Tail Risk

February 14, 2010

The crisis of confidence in Greece’s fiscal health has dented U.S. equities, though not enough to compromise a budding American economic recovery. Even a significant slowdown in European growth prospects might have limited immediate impact on the United States. However, that benign backdrop could vanish, economists at Morgan Stanley say, if the Greek situation were to turn in to an outright credit crisis.  They call it the “contagion tail risk”: