Britain’s export recovery looking a little more elusive

August 1, 2014

It looks like Britain might have to wait a while longer before its much-touted export recovery materialises.

Key to UK interest rate hike, pay data, still a muddle

July 8, 2014

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Bank of England rate setters meeting this week should be in cordial agreement that Britain’s economy is growing at a decent pace, and that price pressures look mostly in check at the moment.

Deconstructing UK job numbers

April 16, 2014

On the face of it, the good news for the British government keeps on coming. Britain’s economy grew surprisingly fast last year and inflation fell below the Bank of England’s target for the first time in over four years in January. The government this month even got a nod from the International Monetary Fund which only last year criticized its austerity programme.

Relief from UK services inflation seen fleeting

January 16, 2014

British inflation dipped to 2 percent  in December – its lowest since November 2009 and within the Bank of England’s target. Part of the move was driven by a fall in prices in Britain’s services sector – which constitutes more than three quarters of the country’s output.

The big questions on the UK housing market: what the analysts say

November 28, 2013

Although UK house prices will head steadily higher in the next two years, analysts polled by Reuters are divided over whether the Bank of England can restrain the market if it overheats. Here’s what they said in the latest Reuters poll, taken this week:

Forward guidance not banking on Scottish independence

October 29, 2013

There are many unknowns surrounding a Scottish vote in favour of independence at next year’s referendum, a potentially huge event for the British economy. But one that has attracted little attention is what it would mean for UK interest rates.

From 1999: Another UK housing bubble? No chance!

October 17, 2013

While debate rages on whether or not Britain is heading into a new housing bubble, here’s a Reuters poll from 1999 that asked the same question. The answer then was,  “No, this time is different”, and it featured a lot of the same arguments we’re hearing today.

How to play down a housing boom like it’s 1999

October 16, 2013

Here’s some of the top reasons from a 1999 Reuters poll on why a housing bubble wouldn’t form, which are re-appearing 14 years later.

History suggests rocketing British growth won’t last long

September 4, 2013

Britain’s economy is steaming ahead – by one measure faster than any other large developed or emerging economy – but history suggests it will struggle to sustain the rapid growth indicated in business and confidence surveys.

Recalculating: Central bank roadmaps leave markets lost

August 8, 2013

Central banks in Europe have followed in the Federal Reserve’s footsteps by adopting “forward guidance” in a break with traditionBut, as in the Fed’s case, the increased transparency seems to have only made investors more confused.