MacroScope

Not really that close

Scotland's First Minister Alex Salmond speaks at the "Yes" Campaign headquarters in Edinburgh, Scotland

So what was all the fuss about?

A first rough draft of history would suggest the one opinion poll that gave the independents a lead nearly two weeks ago scared the Bejesus not only out of the British establishment but a significant chunk of Scottish voters too.

Prime Minister David Cameron has addressed the nation, promising to deliver new powers to Edinburgh to a very tight timetable, drafting laws in January in order to have it done after the 2015 general election.

He also promised more devolution for Northern Ireland, Wales and England, which is tantamount to a fiendishly complicated constitutional overhaul. It is not clear that the opposition Labour party is on the same page.

A lot of Cameron’s Conservative party are uneasy to angry about the Scots being handed so many devolved powers that the English don’t have.

Another question for the prime minister is whether he should have held his nerve – given the eventual comfortable margin of victory for the unionists – rather than trying to shower Scotland with goodies.

The final lap

A "Yes" campaign poster is displayed on the Isle of Lewis in the Outer Hebrides

Three opinion polls last night all put Scotland’s anti-independence vote at 52 percent, the secession campaign on 48. If accurate, the “Yes” camp will have to move heaven and earth in the next 24 hours to turn the tables despite having dramatically narrowed the gap.

The towering caveat is that no one knows if the polls are accurate and if not, in which direction they have got it wrong. The latest trio showed between 8 and 14 percent of Scotland’s 4.3 million voters at least say they are still undecided.

Before the day is out we will see at least three more opinion polls – the final verdicts before the real voting starts. As things stand, the aggregated poll of polls has the race slightly tighter – at 51 to 49 percent.

Showdown for Hollande

French President Hollande and Finance Minister Sapin take part in the assizes for financing and investment at the Elysee Palace in Paris

The French government faces a confidence vote in the national assembly after President Francois Hollande and his prime minister, Manuel Valls, ousted dissident ministers in a signal perhaps that they are prepared to push ahead with unpopular structural reforms to breathe life into a moribund economy.

Rebel lawmakers in Hollande’s Socialist party say they may abstain. On top of the reshuffle, they are angry at Hollande’s policy switch in January to favour tax cuts to business in a bid to revive the economy – a move that has failed to kickstart a flatlining economy.

Hollande looks like he has the numbers to get home but a more profound rebellion could force him to dissolve parliament and call new elections. The Socialists have a one-seat majority in parliament.
Socialist party managers put at 30 the number of hard-left deputies set to abstain. A revolt of that order would allow the government to scrape approval from the 577-seat assembly with support from centre-left allies outside the Socialist Party.

Swedish shift

Opposition leader Stefan Lofven speaks at the election night party of the Social Democrats in Stockholm

Sweden’s centre-left Social Democrats topped the poll in Sunday’s election but fell well short of an overall majority to the extent that it will struggle to form a strong coalition.

The Social Democrats and the Greens and hard Left, who would be natural coalition allies, garnered 43.7 percent of the vote. The anti-immigrant far right emerged as the third biggest party to hold the balance of power with nearly 13 percent.

It looks like there will be plenty of time for market jitters before a government is formed.
What looks more certain is the ousting of the centre-right means years of falling taxes and liberal economic reforms may come to a juddering halt.

All to play for

A "No" campaign poster is seen in a field after being vandalised by a "Yes" supporter on the outskirts of Edinburgh

The latest Scottish opinion poll puts the unionist camp ahead by 52 points to 48 – still way too close to call given the statistical margin for error.

The last two polls have given the “No” campaign clinging to a narrow lead following a dramatic narrowing of the gap and one survey giving the separatists a lead. So has the “Yes” momentum stalled? If you chart the numbers over the past two weeks you might think so but if you did so over the past two months you would say emphatically not.

YouGov, purveyors of the latest poll, noted that on their figures the “No” camp has gained ground for the first time since early August. The last two surveys were the first to have been conducted since it became clear that the nationalist vote was on the charge. Has that concentrated minds? Who knows.

Margin for error

A Union Flag and Scottish Saltire fly over Britain's Cabinet Office in central London

Another day, another Scottish opinion poll and this time a different message, but only slightly.

A Survation survey last night showed 53 percent of Scots would vote to remain in the UK, 47 for independence. Ten percent of the electorate remain undecided. That counters three recent polls which have shown a dead heat or slight lead for the Yes campaign. Given the margin for error – three points either way – they all suggest next Thursday’s vote is too close to call although hitherto, Survation has consistently put support for independence higher than other pollsters.

There is a chance that the dramatic narrowing of the polls – with one giving a lead for the Yes camp – has come too early for the nationalists as it makes all Scots realize that their votes count and concentrates minds. It is easy to vote for independence if you don’t think it’s going to happen and there is a week still to weigh up the consequences.

An almighty gamble

Britain's Prime Minister David Cameron leaves Downing Street in London

Having woken up to the very real possibility of Scotland going it alone, the leaders of Britain’s main parties have scrapped their parliamentary business and headed north to campaign in what amounts to a huge gamble.

The “No” campaign has been criticized for many things – being too negative (though no is negative by definition), being too aloof, failing to address the hole’s in Alex Salmond’s manifesto. The question is whether it is too late to do anything about it. It is risky to deploy Prime Minister David Cameron who, by his own admission, is not catnip to the Scots.

Labour leader Ed Miliband is anything but a clear vote-winner either. The years when the Labour party ruled Britain with a raft of Scots in senior positions is gone. The party front bench now looks very English.

Too close to call

Cakes are seen at a tea-party organised by members of the group 'English Scots for YES' near Berwick-upon-Tweed on the border between England and Scotland

A second opinion poll in three days has put the Scottish independence vote as too close to call.

TNS gave the “No” vote 39 percent  support and “Yes” 38. Its last poll in late July gave the “No” campaign a 13-point lead. Taking only those who are certain to vote, the two camps are tied at 41 percent.

The figures look different to YouGov’s weekend poll which sent a jolt through London and Scotland. It gave the secessionists a 51-49 lead but the direction of travel is clear and with only nine days to that could be decisive.

Will the guns fall silent?

A Ukrainian serviceman smokes as he sits on an armoured vehicle near Kramatorsk

Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko and the main pro-Russian rebel leader said they would both order ceasefires on Friday, provided that an agreement is signed on a new peace plan to end the five month war in Ukraine’s east.

Talks are due to resume in the Belarussian capital Minsk. On Wednesday, following a string of aggressive statements in previous days, Vladimir Putin put forward a seven-point peace plan, which would end the fighting in Ukraine’s east while leaving rebels in control of territory.

Poroshenko expressed “cautious optimism” about the Minsk talks but given the rebels have advanced rapidly across eastern Ukraine in the past week, backed by what Kiev and NATO say is the support of thousands of Russian troops with artillery and tanks, the balance of interests in calling hostilities off has shifted.

What’s it all about, Mario?

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It’s ECB day and after Mario Draghi’s recent dramatic utterances, expectation for fresh action has grown, expectations which are likely largely to be dashed.

Draghi told the world’s central banking elite in Jackson Hole last month that market inflation expectations were falling markedly and the European Central Bank would use everything in its power to stabilize them in order to avoid a deflationary spiral. He also ripped up central banking orthodoxy by calling for more fiscal spending by governments at the same time as redoubling economic reform efforts. How to read that?

Two possibilities spring to mind. Either Draghi (who has talked with a number of EU leaders recently) thinks he can secure fresh a  commitment on structural reform and can use that to go back to his ECB colleagues to argue they should cross the ultimate Rubicon and start printing money in return.