U.S. job openings rise, but nobody’s hiring?

August 6, 2013

It’s a good news, bad news story: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Job Openings and Labor Turnover (JOLTS) survey in June showed an increase in job openings, but a decline in new hires. The ratio of unemployed Americans to each open job fell in June to its lowest level in over four years.

U.S. GDP revisions, inflation slippage tighten Fed’s policy bind

August 1, 2013

Richard Leong contributed to this post

John Kenneth Galbraith apparently joked that economic forecasting was invented to make astrology look respectable. You were warned here first that it would be especially so in the case of the first snapshot (advanced reading) of U.S. second quarter gross domestic product from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Is Europe past the worst?

By Mike Peacock
July 24, 2013

The PMI surveys take top billing today. China’s report showed a further slowdown in manufacturing activity with the index following to an 11-month low and well into contractionary territory.

Uncertain about the effects of uncertainty on jobs

July 23, 2013

Job number one at the Federal Reserve these days is to bring down high U.S. unemployment without sparking inflation. Job number two, it sometimes seems, is explaining just how unemployment got so high in the first place.

Fed on guard over low U.S. savings rate

July 22, 2013

As Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke delivered what may have been his last testimony on monetary policy before Congress, most of the world’s attention was focused on what hints he might give about the timing of an eventual reduction in the pace of asset purchases.

U.S. housing outlook still promising despite rise in rates: Citigroup economist

July 20, 2013

U.S. housing sector fundamentals remain favorable despite the recent rise in interest rates and the sharp drop in housing starts in June, says Citigroup economist Peter D’Antonio.

Curse of the front-runner a bad omen for Fed contender Yellen?

July 18, 2013

The buzz on who will replace Ben Bernanke as Federal Reserve chairman has grown this year and amplified recently with talk of Lawrence Summers as a real possibility. There is also lingering speculation over Timothy Geithner, another previous U.S. Treasury Secretary, and former Fed Vice Chair Roger Ferguson among others as possible successors. Bernanke has provided no hint he wants to stay for a third term.

Morgan Stanley cuts second quarter U.S. GDP forecast to 0.3 percent

July 18, 2013

The surprising weakness in June housing starts is probably only temporary, according to Morgan Stanley economist Ted Wieseman, but the softness in June nonetheless prompted him to cut Morgan Stanley’s Q2 GDP estimate to 0.3 percent from 0.4 percent.

Regarding second quarter GDP, beware the benchmark revisions!

July 17, 2013

If there ever was a time to discount estimates of an advance GDP report, now is the time, says Joseph LaVorgna, chief U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank Securities. That’s because the first snapshot of U.S. Q2 GDP growth, due out on July 31, will occur alongside the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ (BEA) comprehensive benchmark revisions.

Raskin’s warning: ‘Shouldn’t pretend’ Fed capital rules are a panacea

July 10, 2013

Post corrected to show Brooksley Born is a former head of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) not a former Fed board governor.