The May U.S. non-farm payroll report on Friday may be a much less volatile affair than last month, when shock news of 288,000 new jobs topped even the most optimistic views.
This time, there is more certainty around a less spectacular but still solid outcome, based on an analysis of forecasts from the most accurate economists in Reuters polls on recent U.S. data.
The range of views among economists who were closest to reality in forecasting recent key releases on jobs, manufacturing activity, and the magnitude of the contraction in first quarter U.S. GDP is significantly narrower than the range in the wider Reuters poll.
Broadly, this supports expectations for U.S. economic growth to accelerate.
Those top forecasters based on recent data ranged from 200,00 to 230,000, with the Reuters median from 105 economists at 218,000, almost right in the middle. The wider sample is 110,000-325,000.
The latest consensus is the highest in all Reuters polls since January 2008, before the financial crisis.