U.S. manufacturing flashing warning signs

September 29, 2015

U.S. manufacturing may be in trouble. Nearly all key indicators measuring the health of manufacturers in the world’s largest economy have disappointed over the past year.

The new Godot: waiting for wage inflation

September 7, 2015

Actors Maertens and Stoetzner perform on stage at Vienna's BurgtheaterBoth of the two top central banks considering an interest rate rise from near-zero are hoping for a significant pickup in wage inflation and have been waiting a long time for it to turn up.

Tale of two ISMs: another reason for the Fed to pause?

September 1, 2015

Depending on which report you read from the same source, the U.S. economy is doing extremely well and also in danger of slowing sharply.

Breakout for U.S. services economy?

August 6, 2015

It’s not very often you come across a chart like this. Usually this kind of thing happens once every 10 years or so.

Is the dollar taking over the Fed’s job?

May 5, 2015

US trade










While the surge in the greenback since July has turned up in all sorts of economic data, much of it not good, the big one may have just landed.

U.S. growth outlook snowed under yet again

April 29, 2015

SFor many years in a row, since a form of feeble recovery began from the worst financial crisis in more than 80 years, a similar pattern of déjà vu has set in for the U.S. economy.

U.S. May non-farm payrolls may be a calmer affair after April shock

June 4, 2014


The May U.S. non-farm payroll report on Friday may be a much less volatile affair than last month, when shock news of 288,000 new jobs topped even the most optimistic views.

Most accurate U.S. growth forecasters say to brace for stronger data this week

April 30, 2014

Arrows shot by Olympic hopeful and member of the U.S. archery team Gibilaro are seen in the target in BranfordThe two forecasting teams that came closest to predicting the U.S. economy would nearly stall in the first quarter expect other key economic data due this week to be strong.

Forecasters more accurate on U.S. payrolls: perhaps a good sign

June 7, 2013

Financial and economic forecasters have long been the punching bag of punters and traders for making spectacularly wrong calls. But a clutch of economists looked exceptionally good on Friday. Nine of them, or about 10 percent of the latest Reuters Polls sample on U.S. non-farm payrolls, got the net number of new jobs created in May exactly right at 175,000. And a whole lot of them came very close.

‘Cliff’ deal is one part relief, one part frustration for Fed

January 2, 2013

When Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke was last in New York, he joked about his past research into the effect of uncertainty on investment spending. “I concluded it is not a good thing, and they gave me a PhD for that,” he said, drawing laughter from a gathering of hundreds of economists in a packed Times Square conference room.