UK Politics and Economics Correspondent
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Oct 4, 2011

18 more months of gloom ahead for UK retail – BRC

MANCHESTER, England (Reuters) – More British retailers will go bust in the coming months, others are likely to shed jobs and sales look set for a prolonged slump, the head of the British Retail Consortium told Reuters on Tuesday, warning of 18 months of hard times for the high street.

Stephen Robertson, who represents many of Britain’s biggest retailers, said consumer morale was heading towards levels not seen since the collapse of U.S. investment bank Lehman Brothers despite near-unprecedented levels of discounting in shops.

“We are going into an extended period where we are going to be under huge pressure,” Robertson said in an interview at the Conservative Party’s annual conference in Manchester.

“The next six months are going to be characterised by very low levels of growth. I think we’ve probably got another 18 months of real challenge,” he said.

The coalition government is looking to the private sector to ignite Britain’s stalling economy while ministers slash billions of pounds in spending and hundreds of thousands jobs in the public sector over the next four years to tackle a record budget deficit.

There has been little sign so far that the private sector will expand rapidly enough to offset a shrinking state – Britain’s economy has hardly grown for the last three quarters.

Robertson said the government needed to do more to help businesses take up the slack.

Oct 3, 2011

Interview – UK may face more fiscal pain after 2015 – IFS

MANCHESTER (Reuters) – Britain is likely to face a further fiscal squeeze after the 2015 election because the economy is not growing as fast as the coalition government had hoped, the head of an influential think tank told Reuters on Monday.

Paul Johnson, Director of the Institute of Fiscal Studies, said the independent Office for Budget Responsibility was likely to cut its economic growth forecasts next month, making it harder for the Conservative-Liberal Democrat government to achieve its goal of eliminating Britain’s structural deficit by 2015.

“My guess is that the next set of growth forecasts will say the job won’t be done and there’ll be a couple of years of squeeze going into the next parliament,” Johnson said on the sidelines of the Conservative Party’s annual conference in the northern city of Manchester.

“It will most likely be that we’ll get that balance later than they were hoping a year ago … They will still actually have to be tightening.”

The government’s current borrowing forecasts are based on OBR March growth estimates of 1.7 percent growth this year, rising to 2.5 percent in 2012 and then 2.9 percent in 2013.

But the euro zone debt crisis, concerns about global demand and a continued lack of credit will most likely mean growth will remain sluggish in Britain for some time to come.

In addition, signs have increased that the financial crisis has done more lasting damage to the economy’s potential to grow.

Oct 3, 2011

Osborne flags new scheme to allow credit easing

MANCHESTER, England (Reuters) – Chancellor George Osborne flagged a new scheme on Monday to funnel lending directly to companies starved of credit by banks, in an attempt to get economic growth back on track without breaking his pledge to cut public spending.

Facing appeals from across the political spectrum to do more to prop up growth, Osborne’s determination to stay the course on fiscal cutbacks got support from rating agency Standard & Poor’s, which warned against any let-up in the drive to reduce Britain’s budget deficit.

His speech to the Conservative Party’s annual conference frustrated some colleagues’ calls for lower taxes or more spending, but pointed to ways both the Bank of England and the Treasury could support lending.

He said the government’s tough austerity plan allowed the Bank to keep monetary policy loose and that he would give the green light for more asset purchases if the Bank decided to launch a second round of quantitative easing.

But he also flagged a new scheme by the Treasury to help firms get access to cheap borrowing.

“Because banks are damaged they won’t lend at current low rates,” he said. “We have got to get credit flowing in our economy.”

“I have set the Treasury to work on ways to inject money directly into parts of the economy that need it such as small business. It is known as credit easing,” he said.

Oct 3, 2011

Osborne douses hopes for growth boost

MANCHESTER (Reuters) – Chancellor George Osborne confined pro-growth steps to measures including a freeze in council tax on Monday, pinning his hopes for recovery on a resolution of the euro zone debt crisis.

Facing calls across the political spectrum for the government to do more to prop up growth, Osborne’s determination to stay the course on fiscal cutbacks adds to pressure on the Bank of England to ease monetary policy further.

“The single biggest boost for British economy that can take place this autumn is nothing I can announce, it is the resolution of the euro crisis,” Osborne told BBC Radio 4 ahead of a speech at the Conservative Party’s annual conference in Manchester, where fellow Tories and business leaders called for a more coherent growth strategy.

The chancellor urged the European governments to find a solution by the time Group of 20 leaders meet in Cannes in early November.

“If we come out of that meeting with the euro zone crisis still unresolved that would be terrible not just for Britain, not just for Europe, but for the whole world economy,” he said. “This instability is really debilitating.”

NO MONEY

The Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition government, in power since May 2010, is slashing spending and raising taxes to virtually eliminate a record budget deficit by the next election due in 2015, leaving next to no extra cash to support a struggling economy.

Oct 3, 2011

Government freezes tax, douses hopes for growth boost

MANCHESTER, England (Reuters) – Cancellor George Osborne confined pro-growth steps to measures including a freeze in the tax households pay for local services on Monday, pinning his hopes for recovery on a resolution of the euro zone debt crisis.

Facing calls across the political spectrum for the government to do more to prop up growth, Osborne’s determination to stay the course on fiscal cutbacks adds to pressure on the Bank of England to ease monetary policy further.

“The single biggest boost for British economy that can take place this autumn is nothing I can announce, it is the resolution of the euro crisis,” Osborne told BBC Radio 4 ahead of a speech at the Conservative Party’s annual conference in the northern English city of Manchester, where fellow Tories and business leaders called for a more coherent growth strategy.

The chancellor urged the European governments to find a solution by the time Group of 20 leaders meet in Cannes in early November.

“If we come out of that meeting with the euro zone crisis still unresolved that would be terrible not just for Britain, not just for Europe, but for the whole world economy,” he said. “This instability is really debilitating.”

NO MONEY

The Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition government, in power since May 2010, is slashing spending and raising taxes to virtually eliminate a record budget deficit by the next election due in 2015, leaving next to no extra cash to support a struggling economy.

Oct 3, 2011

Cameron urges eurozone action

MANCHESTER (Reuters) – Europe must urgently fix its banks and deal with its debts, Prime Minister David Cameron said on Sunday, warning that the euro zone crisis risked harming Britain’s economy and stunting global growth.

Speaking on the opening day of his Conservative Party’s annual conference, Cameron said that he would stick to his coalition’s deficit-cutting plans despite signs that the British economy is stalling.

He also said Britain must remain part of the European Union, disappointing right-wingers in his party who see the continental crisis as a chance for an abrupt end to four decades of closer integration with EU partners.

Any prolonged economic crisis in the rest of Europe, the UK’s main export market, would hurt Britain when the government is trying to rebalance a struggling economy by increasing the sale of British goods and services overseas.

“The euro zone is a threat not just to itself but also a threat to the British economy and a threat to the worldwide economy,” Cameron told BBC television.

“Action needs to be taken in the next coming weeks to strengthen Europe’s banks, to build the defences that the euro zone has, to deal with the problems of debt. They’ve got to do that now. They’ve got to get ahead of the markets now.”

The Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition government, in power since May 2010, is increasingly concerned about a lack of growth in the economy, with critics saying its tough austerity plan is only making matters worse.

Oct 2, 2011

UK’s Cameron urges eurozone action, defends cuts

MANCHESTER, England (Reuters) – Europe must urgently fix its banks and deal with its debts, British Prime Minister David Cameron said on Sunday, warning that the euro zone crisis risked harming Britain’s economy and stunting global growth.

Speaking on the opening day of his Conservative Party’s annual conference, Cameron said that he would stick to his coalition’s deficit-cutting plans despite signs that the British economy is stalling.

He also said Britain must remain part of the European Union, disappointing right-wingers in his party who see the continental crisis as a chance for an abrupt end to four decades of closer integration with EU partners.

Any prolonged economic crisis in the rest of Europe, the UK’s main export market, would hurt Britain when the government is trying to rebalance a struggling economy by increasing the sale of British goods and services overseas.

“The euro zone is a threat not just to itself but also a threat to the British economy and a threat to the worldwide economy,” Cameron told BBC television.

“Action needs to be taken in the next coming weeks to strengthen Europe’s banks, to build the defences that the euro zone has, to deal with the problems of debt. They’ve got to do that now. They’ve got to get ahead of the markets now.”

The Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition government, in power since May 2010, is increasingly concerned about a lack of growth in the British economy, with critics saying its tough austerity plan is only making matters worse.

Oct 2, 2011

UK’s Cameron urges swift euro zone action

MANCHESTER, England Oct 2 (Reuters) – Europe must urgently fix its banks and deal with its debts, British Prime Minister David Cameron said on Sunday, warning that the euro zone’s problems were threatening the global economy.

Any prolonged economic crisis in the rest of Europe, the UK’s main export market, would hurt Britain when the government is trying to rebalance a struggling economy and increase the sale of British goods and services overseas.

Cameron, speaking on the first day of his party’s annual conference in the northern English city of Manchester, said there was little that Britain could do to “insure” itself against what was happening on the continent.

“The euro zone is a threat not just to itself but also a threat to the British economy, but a threat to the worldwide economy,” Cameron told BBC television.

“Action needs to be taken in the next coming weeks to strengthen Europe’s banks, to build the defences that the euro zone has, to deal with the problems of debt. They’ve got to do that now. They’ve got to get ahead of the markets now.”

The Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition government, in power since May 2010, is increasingly concerned about a lack of growth in the British economy, with critics saying its tough austerity plan is only making matters worse.

But the coalition argues that dealing with Britain’s debts decisively is the only way to restore long-term growth and stability, and to also keep financial markets at bay.

Sep 28, 2011

Analysis – Labour struggles to rebuild after defeat

LIVERPOOL, England (Reuters) – Ed Miliband has a long way to go to convince voters — and some in his own Labour party — that he is a credible prime minister in waiting who can manage the economy.

At their annual conference in Liverpool this week, a year after Miliband won the leadership in the wake of national electoral defeat, Labour officials said the coalition is likely to hold together until an election in 2015.

But, rather than forecasting victory under Miliband, some in the party fear it may take longer than four years to win back voters and heal the internal wounds of infighting between rival supporters of former premiers Tony Blair and Gordon Brown.

The 41-year-old, who narrowly defeated his elder brother in a leadership vote, has benefited little in polls from economic worries troubling the new government. And within the party, the conference has shown him struggling to appeal to both centrists and left-wingers.

“He has still got a lot to learn,” Dave Prentis, the leader of Britain’s biggest public sector trade union Unison, told Reuters. “He still has to develop an appeal to the electorate.

“But that may come with confidence.”

Miliband used the conference, held in the party’s northern heartland, to sketch out his direction for the party. A keynote speech on Tuesday was touted as a radical rethink, repudiating both Blair and Brown by talking up social responsibility over market greed and distancing government from big business.

Sep 27, 2011

Labour’s Miliband wants voters trust on UK economy

LIVERPOOL, England, Sept 27 (Reuters) – The leader of Britain’s opposition Labour party sought on Tuesday to regain voters’ trust on the economy, responding to accusations that high government spending during the party’s 13 years in power contributed to the country’s big budget deficit.

Ed Miliband, elected Labour leader after former prime minister Gordon Brown lost the 2010 parliamentary election, told his party’s annual conference he would offer voters a “new bargain” based on wealth creation for all.

“I am determined to prove to you that the next Labour government will only spend what it can afford. That we live within our means. That we will manage your money properly,” he told the party’s annual conference in Liverpool.

Miliband has made a lacklustre start as head of the centre-left party, which is still regrouping after it suffered one of its worst electoral defeats set against a backdrop of financial meltdown and bitter internal rivalries.

Labour’s economic credibility will have to be rebuilt if it is to beat the Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition in an election not due until 2015.

Miliband’s plans include breaking the dominance of big energy companies, curbing pay for high earners and awarding government contracts to firms that take on apprentices.

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    • About Matt

      "I cover all aspects of government policy from the British parliament, but concentrate on Number 10, fiscal policy at the Treasury, and monetary policy at the Bank of England. I am based in our parliament office in Westminster and in our UK bureau in East London."
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