Just how much worse could ratings get for ABC, CBS, NBC and Fox with the screenwriters strike? Much worse, perhaps twice the losses the big networks suffered in the fall when their live audience ratings were down 10 percent.

Forecasts of ratings drops due to the strike ranged from 2 percent to 10 percent in interviews with MPG Chief Operating Officer Steve Lanzano, RPA Entertainment Specialist David Scardino, Horizon Media Director of Research Brad Adgate, Hill Holliday Chief Media Officer Baba Shetty, Carat USA Director of National Broadcast Andy Donchin.

Obviously, some networks will fare worse than others. Here’s how Scardino sees it playing out: 

I would say Fox is in the best position because they have less hours to program, “American Idol” coming back, and they held back stuff in the fall like “The Sarah Conner Chronicles” and “New Amsterdam”. And they’ve got the Super Bowl.

Probably ABC will be next, mainly because they have “Dancing With The Stars” as well as some slightly more original programming. And they’ve 8 episodes of “Lost”.

CBS is in tougher straits because they had to go to their bench when “Viva Laughlin” tanked and bring in “The Amazing Race”. They are going to move some summer stuff like “Power of 10″ and “Big Brother” and run that in January. the rest of their stuff is mostly repeats basically.

NBC is probably in the worst position of the big four. Their ratings have continued to slide. They have a lot of reality coming on. They’ve got Law and Order, but it’s been eroding for three or four years. Monk and Psych will be brought in from USA.

(Photo: Reuters)