Who’s Facebook going to buy next? Put your money on Foursquare

April 10, 2012

Facebook Director of Marketing Mike Hoefflinger announces a new "Premium on Facebook" service in New York City

The news Facebook is buying mobile photo app start-up Instagram has sparked off speculation that social networking giant might go on a buying spree in the run-up, and after, its expected $100 billion initial public offering in a few weeks.

Irish betting house Paddy Power, in a fairly transparent PR stunt, has sent out the odds it’s offering punters who want to bet who would be next on Facebook’s list. In a sure sign that the list of names was rustled up overnight right after the news (a bit like today’s blog actually) the list starts off with more than a modicum of respectability with solid names like location-based check-in app company Foursquare at odds of  4 to 1  and note-taking service Evernote at 9 to 2. It follows with some other interesting names like Dropbox, Spotify and Pinterest all in single digit odds.

But towards the end of its list  Paddy Powers seem to have run out of ideas and suggest odds as low as 40 to 1 of Facebook buying YouTube. Really? From Google’s cold dead hands? Even weirder it has the same odds of Facebook buying two failed social networks MySpace and British network Friends Reunited.

The odds on Facebook’s next acquisition according to PaddyPower.
4/1       Foursquare
9/2       Evernote
5/1       Dropbox
7/1       Spotify
8/1       Pinterest
16/1      Rara
16/1      Audiboo
25/1      Tumblr
25/1      Flickr
40/1      YouTube
40/1      MySpace
40/1      Friends Reunited

I’m no bookie but 1000-1 might be fairer odds of those latter deals happening. But then again, PaddyPower has odds at just a 100 to 1 of Al Gore winning this year’s Democratic Presidential nomination.

Still, who would have bet a  less than two year old start-up with around a dozen employees led by a non-engineer with no revenues could sell for $1 billion? Anything’s possible.


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Nope, don’t see it happening. Here’s why.

1) Facebook has way more check-in data than Foursquare.

2) Pinterest, on the other hand, is growing faster than anything ever in the entire existence of the internet. Facebook is looking to get people to stay on it’s site as long as possible — Pinterest is that ticket. Users spend more time on Pinterest than Facebook. Plus it has tones of potential to be really profitable through commissions.

3) Check-ins are a feature, and Facebook already has this feature built-in. Foursquare DOES have check-in deals, but they are very scarce. Simply put, foursquare lacks buzz.

Posted by CLiDED | Report as abusive

I think to put video and advertising on the mobile platform and in the face of the user when they open or pull out their mobile device. The icing on the cake would be to buy Vringo. They have the patent for video ring tones, and had settled with Facebook on some technology disagreements a while back. Why they haven’t been bought out my guess is their stock is slowly being walked up to prevent market shock. Most of the other companies were Private and didn’t have to deal with market flux. I was in Vringo for the ring tones but now they have a Search Engine portfolio of patents, yip! pee! I’m betting my eggs on Vringo.

Posted by OddsVestor | Report as abusive