Video game executives are some of the most optimistic you’ll ever meet. But you have to think they dream of the good old days (of only one year ago) when the industry was called “recession resistant”, thanks to the idea that “cocooning” consumers would, ad infinitum, plop down $60 for games.

Those days may be gone — just ask Nintendo. Now game makers are eyeing the holiday shopping season, with a lot on the line. Still, many are upbeat. Activision Blizzard Chief Executive Bobby Kotick, for one, says that at its core, the industry slowdown is about the wicked recession, not a shrinking appeal for games.

Reuters: Has the appetite for games dwindled?
Kotick: I think the reason why the take-up rates over the last 6 or 7 months have been what they have been, as compared with where they were, has much more to do with macroeconomics than fatigue in the category. Once you are getting to that gift giving (season), my sense is that you are going to see a change in consumption.

One thing you won’t see this the holiday season: a drop in prices from the standard of $60 and up for top shelf games such as Activision’s highly anticipated “Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2″ and “DJ Hero Renegade Edition” ($199). Kotick says that the price is right, given the rising cost of development, and the fact that that prices have been steady for a long time compared to that of other entertainment forms.

Reuters: Any chance for price movement?
Kotick: Not that I’m aware of. If you look at the cost of development ten year ago to today and the cost of marketing, our ability to hold prices firm over ten years (is worth noting). If I told you that we had a 4x increase in 10 years in production expenses and even more than that in marketing and selling, we are still holding firm on those low price points.

Reuters: So prices could have been even higher?
Kotick: Yes — (even) if you just added some inflation adjustment. We have tried to maintain no-price-increases and making sure that the products we are delivering are always the highest quality.

Photo: Reuters Archive

Video game publisher Electronic Arts will report first-quarter earnings after the bell today, amid Wall Street’s hopes of an industry comeback in the second half of the year. June video game sales in the U.S. were pretty dismal, but investors are probably betting on big-name game titles and possible game console price cuts to pump some life back into the slump in the second half of 2009.

Analysts say EA, the publisher of hit football game Madden NFL, likely had a strong June quarter, even though they are predicting a loss per share of 13 cents. Last week, UBS initiated coverage of EA and Activision with “buy” ratings. The firm expects the $39 billion industry to grow to $55 billion in 2012, and believes EA is a compelling turnaround story because of its re-energized game strategy.

Activision, which reports Wednesday, of course remains the industry darling, with an enviable stable of franchises, including Guitar Hero and Call of Duty, new installments of which will be released later in the year.

Will the video game publishers see a better second half?

Keep an eye on:

• Twitter, a threat to football’s success. (The New York Times)
• Time Warner could sell less-successful magazines and keep profitable ones. (Washington Post)
• Spotify, tipped to be a potential iTunes challenger, secures funding. (Financial Times)

Photo: Tinlyn Jacobson plays EA’s Sports Active game for the Wii at E3/Reuters.

The news media may be preoccupied with Swine Flu and the Banking Crisis and the Auto Industry meltdown, but look beyond those hot topics and you will see a familiar story — you know, the advertising-business-is-getting-slammed story.

Advertising group WPP today said it would not meet its 2009 forecasts after quarterly sales fell 5.8 percent, as companies slashed marketing budgets. This comes after rival Omnicom on Monday reported that its first-quarter revenue fell 14 percent.

Interpublic needed a heap of cost-cutting moves — including job cuts — to help it post a loss that was smaller that Wall Street expected. Revenue fell nearly 11 percent — maybe that’s a case of it-could-have-been-worse for a company that counts General Motors as one of its single largest clients.

Perhaps a recent run-up in the shares of media stocks portends better days for advertisers, right?

Not really. Experts warn that advertising spending is not yet showing any indication of bouncing back. Omnicom’s CEO John Wren says even those who are “at all optimistic” are looking toward the back end of this year and the beginning of 2010 for any kind of recovery.

And certainly the Swine Flu, the Banking Crisis and the Auto industry’s woes aren’t likely to help.

Keep an eye on:

• McGraw-Hill’s broadcast revenue in the first quarter fell almost 23 percent reflecting softness in both local and national advertising. (Broadcasting & Cable)
• The U.S. Supreme Court upheld a government crackdown on profanity on television. (Reuters)
• Activision may pick Van Halen for its next Guitar Hero game (PaidContent)

(Photo: WPP Chief Executive Officer Sir Martin Sorrell, Reuters)

How do entertainment retailers come up with the prices they charge? Why is a movie theater ticket $10, a music CD $15, a rental DVD $3-$5 and a top video game $60?

We asked Strauss Zelnick, executive chairman of game publisher Take-Two. He says it’s simple math, based upon the value of that experience.

Prices are determined by the marketplace — if folks stopped buying stuff, prices would fall, etc. (Think gasoline). Balance that with cost. A game like Halo or Grand Theft Auto takes years to develop and costs as much to make as a Hollywood film.

Here’s Zelnick in his own words:

The reason the consumer is willing to pay $60 for front-line product is because they are going to get 20-plus hours of game play out of that product.

I’m a big believer that there is an equation for the pricing of front-line entertainment products, which is: The hours of expected consumption times the value per hour, plus the catalog value.

The price per hour is pretty stable across media. For example, a motion picture: You have two hours of experience in the theater, a very high-quality experience, zero catalog value. So what’s that worth? I guess about $5 an hour (on a per capita basis). If you apply that to a video rental, also zero catalog value, there’s multiple people watching typically, it’s a lower quality experience, that’s how you get a video rental of three bucks. Recorded music, you will listen to the album (up to 10 times — or hours — on average). The same equation applies.

There’s more:

What’s driving that front-line price point is the perceived quality of the experience, times the number of hours you are going to have that, so that the price per quality hour of the experience, times the hours, plus catalog value. And I understand why that number would be, for the sake of argument, $60, versus for sake of argument, $15 for an album, versus $3 for a video rental, versus 10 to see a front line movie.
They are not so far off.

So it’s not that we came up with that price point out of the blue. If we came up with it out of the blue, we wouldn’t be selling anything at that price point.

For the record, the industry walks the walk. Take-Two’s Grand Theft Auto has sold more than 10 million units in less than a year. And other huge industry sellers such as Metal Gear Solid, Fable, Halo, Madden NFL, Rock Band and Guitar Hero? Most have sold more than a million copies — at $60 a pop, or more.

I admit that I’ve bought $5 DVDs, cheered, and watched them only once. I’ve also paid $60 for games, grumbled about it, and played them for months. Now I’m thinking about buying Rock Band 2 ($189) or Guitar Hero: World Tour (also $189) for the holidays. (grumble grumble grumble)

So what do you think? Are video games fairly priced?

(Photos: Screenshot from Amazon.com; Zelnick, Reuters)

Microsoft's videogame chief Shane Kim came by our New York office this morning for the Reuters Media Summit and shared his thoughts on XBox 360 sales ("cautiously optimistic") and the outlook for the gaming industry amid the economic doom-and-gloom ("Who knows, maybe flat performance will be considered a remarkable achievement").

He also gazed into his crystal ball and served up some insights on the trends shaping the gaming business.

Consolidation is going to continue, he thinks, especially among the smaller videogame publishers as they search for hit games while keeping costs in check.

"There are a number of mid-tier publishers behind the Electronic Arts and Ubisofts and Activisions of the world who are struggling."

Another exciting trend for Kim is the return to videogame content developed by small creative teams, which he thinks could reduce the industry's dependence on sequels of hit games.

"That would be a good thing... because one of the challenges the industry has had, in my opinion, over the last five to 10 years is a growing reliance on sequels and licensed properties as opposed to those new creative hits. If we can find those nuggets that start smaller and can grow into big hits, that's a great thing."

He did wonder how smaller creative shops could find funding for their pitches, given that dollars could be hard to come by these days. But at the same time, it's an opportunity for bigger publishers, he said, since nothing rocks the gaming world like a hit game.

(Photo: Reuters)

    At Europe’s biggest video games convention in Leipzig last week, evidence of a distinctive European flavour was largely absent, apart from in karaoke-style titles such as Activision’s Guitar Hero or Sony’s SingStar and sports games.
    Music from local bands and singers is a necessity for these titles, and the new World Tour edition of Guitar Hero delivered it in the form of artists such as Germany’s emo-lite Tokio Hotel, Swedish rockers Kent and Spanish 80s classic Radio Futura.
    Sony offered a more unusual twist with a Turkish Party edition of SingStar for release in Germany in November, to capitalise on the country’s large Turkish population as well as nostalgic holidaymakers.
    In the case of sports games, a title such the next annual revamp of Konami’s Pro Evolution Soccer is understandably expected to sell better in Europe than the United States.
    But outside these two genres, industry executives struggled to pin down differences. Konami’s head of Europe, Kunio Neo, noted that Europeans did not take to games with manga-style graphics as readily as gamers in the company’s Japanese homeland. Konami also said it expected one game in development, Lords of Shadow, to appeal particularly to European sensibilities — early artwork leans heavily on director Guillermo del Toro’s film Pan’s Labyrinth, which was set in Spain.
    Neo’s counterpart at Electronic Arts, Jens Uwe Intat, made similar claims for Mirror’s Edge, which he said had a high-end aesthetic which he hoped would be particularly successful in Europe.
    But Intat in general saw little difference between what made a hit game in Europe compared to the United States.
    “With the exception of American football all franchises that work in the U.S. work in Europe too — though as in the movie industry you see slightly different top tens,” he told Reuters just before the start of the Leipzig event.
    Yet critics can easily point to distinctive traditions of French, Italian and British film alongside Hollywood and Japanese movies, which has no equivalent in video games. Why do you think this is? Does it bother you?

    The rise of casual video gaming may have grabbed the headlines over the past couple of years, but the more hardcore end of the market dominated at Europe’s biggest gaming convention in Leipzig last week.
    Apart from new iterations of popular karaoke-style games such as Activision’s Guitar Hero, Electronic Arts‘ RockBand and Sony’s SingStar, which arguably kick-started the trend of easy-to-play casual fare, the world’s biggest games publishers focused on products for their core audience.
    Upcoming release Command and Conquer Red Alert 3 was a case in point. Not only does the game involve sending dozens of types of futuristic military unit across apocalyptic landscapes, but EA was marketing it in part on the basis that one of the
actresses in it, Jenny McCarthy, is a former Playboy playmate of the year.
    Most publishers were playing it safe, focusing on sequels such as a new version of The Sims – the virtual doll’s house franchise which has sold over 100 million copies since launch in 200? — or movie tie-ins such as a game based on new James Bond film Quantum of Solace.
    True innovation was thin on the ground, at least on a whistle-stop tour view of the main publishers’ offerings. Ubisoft demoed a game in the same genre as Command and Conquer which could be fully voice-controlled — apparently a first for consoles — while Sony previewed LittleBigPlanet. This marries the hot theme of user-designed content (think YouTube or MySpace) to an age-old platforming mechanic, the basics of which that would be familiar to anyone who had played Nintendo’s Mario games.
    Cute sack-doll characters jump over flames and on to rising platforms, but the novelty is that most of the game, from the characters’ outfits and personalities to the landscapes over which they clamber can be modified by players and shared online.
    But for two of the other most hotly awaited games of the season, there was no news, albeit for opposite reasons. EA’s Spore, in which players guide a lifeform in the Darwinian struggle from primaeval soup to interplanetary conflict, is due out on Sept. 4 and had already been presented in near-final form at other events, so did not get a spot in EA’s main presentation.
    World of Warcraft: Wrath of the Lich King, the next installment of the online role-playing game that has over 10 million subscribers — was available to play in an early form, but it remained unclear when the final version would be on sale. A spokesman for Activision unit Blizzard could not even confirm it would definitely be out before Christmas.

    * Where do you think gaming is going in the run-up to this year’s holiday season? Were you at the Leipzig Games Convention? Tell us what you think below.

Talk about passing the buck.

During a panel discussion on media and entertainment at the Milken Institute Global Conference on Wednesday, former Yahoo! CEO Terry Semel swiftly deflected questions about the Internet company’s current pickle with Microsoft to his fellow panelist and Yahoo! board member Activision CEO Bobby Kotick.

Asked by moderator Dennis Kneale of CNBC how Yahoo had gotten itself in the position of being courted by Microsoft, Semel pointed to Kotick, who was sitting next to him.

“Ask the board member,” he said.

But Kotick wouldn’t bite. In fact, he said nothing at all.

Later on, Kneale tried again, asking another panelist, News Corp. President Peter Chernin, to tell Semel and Kotick what Yahoo! should do in response to Microsoft’s $44 billion bid.

“Can you tell us what Yahoo should do with itself?” Kneale pleaded.

Chernin also deferred to Kotick, who again said nothing. When pressed by Kneale to give the Yahoo board member his advice, Chernin finally gave a response that could only be characterized as diplomatic.

“I have no advice for Yahoo!, it seems to be doing just fine,” he said.

Semel gave a similarly deferential response when asked by Kneale whether News Corp. should spin off a portion of its MySpace business to the public.

“It’s a very good asset and I’m sure ultimately he will find a better way to monetize it and bring more and more advertising,” Semel said.

And they all lived happily ever after.