The last thing that the complex negotiations between India's Bharti and South Africa's MTN Group to create the world's third largest mobile phone company needed is more complexity. The existing deal involving an intricate mix of cash and stock is further complicated by currency fluctuations and diverging growth rates between the maturing Indian market and the wide-open African one.

But if a third company, Zain of Kuwait, succeeds in starting up a full-scale bidding war for itself, the Bharti-MTN deal could come off the rails and fall apart.  Zain's CEO told Kuwaiti daily Al-Rai on Monday that it is in talks with three major, but so-far unnamed telecom firms, including one from India. Last month, Zain said it was reviewing the possible sale of its far-flung African operations after French conglomerate Vivendi called off talks to buy a majority of Zain's African business.  A Vivendi spokesman says nothing has changed since then. There's no word yet from other obvious suspects -- France Telecom or Vodafone -- on whether they are interested.

The most likely Indian bidder for Zain looks like Reliance Communications, India's distant No. 2 mobile operator to Bharti. There's history here, as Reliance tried to nab MTN a year ago. That move came after Bharti's first try to strike a deal with MTN, South Africa's second largest operator, fell apart over which company's management would end up controlling the combined entity.

At least temporarily, the only two parties we can rule out as bidders for Zain are Bharti and MTN. The two would be entirely likely candidates, except that they remain locked in exclusive talks with one another until the end of August. Zain's assets make it an obvious alternative should Bharti and MTN fail to make their belaboured third effort to strike a deal work after more than a year of trying. 

There may be too much sheer complexity in merging India's most successful company with the diverse strengths of MTN, a big player from South Africa to Nigeria to Iran and Afghanistan. Both companies have corporate egos to match their roughly US$30 billion market capitalizations. 

The outright acquisition of Zain's comparable assets looks a whole lot simpler. Clearly Zain, valued at around $20 billion on the Kuwaiti exchange, is trying to stoke a bidding war for itself by talking up mystery bidders. Coming just weeks ahead of the Bharti-MTN deadline, the Zain CEO's comments suggest he is trying to entice either Bharti or MTN or both into bidding for it.

Until recently, the two merger speculations appeared to be two separate events that happened to be taking place over some of the same battleground -- mobile phone markets across Africa and the Middle East. Maybe a good old fashioned frontier bar brawl is the easiest way of working this all out. 

(Images: Zain; Reuters: Abed Omar Qusini, Nablus)

The “Business Call to Action,” hosted by the British prime minister, drew some 80 CEOs of the world’s biggest companies including Microsoft, Coca-Cola and Vodafone as well as top politicians to discuss how big business can stamp out global poverty.

The lure? Big profits. Ghana’s President John Kufuor said it will be easier for U.S. and European businesses to make their next million in Africa rather than anywhere else. The credit crunch has made a few more believe this might be true.

“Three billion of the world’s 6 billion people have mobile phones,” Vodafone CEO Arun Sarin said. “And three-quarters of the new customers are in the developing world. This is a huge opportunity.”

Two companies laid out how they were using technology to tackle issues unique to developing nations in a race to win market share. British telecom company Vodafone has made some headway, while Telefonica O2 is launching new products to allow migrant workers to send money home using their mobiles.

Vodafone CEO Sarin:

• Vodafone already has 2 million Kenyan and Tanzanian customers, out of 10 million in total, signed up to M-PESA, which allows customers to send much-needed money to loved ones using their mobile phones.
• The company operates in Afghanistan. To get around the problem of illiteracy, the firm has developed voice recognition software. Luckily you don’t have to shout out your bank details or the amount you’re sending - you give voice instructions and plug in the numbers.

O2 CEO Matthew Key:

• Telefonica has plans to for a similar service in Latin America, where many leave for the United States and send part of their wages home.
• Telefonica wants 200 million people to sign up for “a new suite of banking products,” Key said.
• The company estimates there are 650 million money transfers back to Latin America each year, and its mobile phone products will slash the average $10 cost per transfer.

–Reporting by Chris Wills in London