If you’ve ever listened to Time Warner chief executive Jeffrey Bewkes speak, you’ll be used to his breezy, languid style. But he sounded even more so than usual on Friday at a conference in Washington D.C.  when asked about the big media story of the year so far: Comcast’s bid to take control of NBC Universal.

Comcast’s bid, led by CEO Brian Roberts, is exactly the opposite of what Bewkes has been doing at Time Warner, where rather than buying he’s spun off the cable assets and hopes to do the same with AOL by the end of this year.  So Bewkes couldn’t resist a little jab at his rival and sometimes partner:

“I don’t want to say anything that would discourage Brian from continuing in this pursuit that he has,” Bewkes said to laughter from the audience.

Bewkes agreed with suggestions that Comcast might be doing this for a share in the growing cable business. 

“They may have concerns about their future in cable and they may want to hedge into what they think is a better long-term business, which is the branded content business. It’s a good business, it’s one that everybody should want to get in. We’re in it, we’re very nicely placed in it.”

But the executive who lived through one of the worst corporate mergers of all time — AOL-Time Warner — is far less supportive of the idea of big combinations, especially in the media space.

“It’s probably true if you look at media deals — not just ours – in the entire industry. In the last 10 or 15 years there’s a lower percentage of deals that have delievered what they said they were going to deliver and have had an actual return on investment versus  what you would find in other more rationally based businesses where you don’t call the CEO ‘a mogul’. So whoever that is doesn’t get lost thinking about what they’re going to write in tomorrow’s paper.”

And while many journalists, investors and Wall Street analysts continue to try to decide whether this deal makes sense, Bewkes has a simple test.

 ”If it’s a synergy idea that takes a week and nine articles to fully plumb the mysterious depths, you’re probably wrong.”

Nice to know someone feels our pain.  

News about the media industry:

Google Makes a Case That It Isn’t So Big (NYT)
“Google has begun this public-relations offensive because it is in the midst of a treacherous rite of passage for powerful technology companies — regulators are intensely scrutinizing its every move, as they once did with AT&T, I.B.M., Intel and Microsoft,” writes Miguel Helft.
> Graphic about Google share of all ads and online ads (Lost Remote)

Media and cable now the riskiest sector (Reuters)
“Default risk for the media and cable sector has risen from its already high levels a year ago, CreditSights said. Rising leverage, along with a protracted decline in advertising revenues that was accelerated by the U.S. recession, are behind the higher risk,” writes Dena Aubin.

Sun-Times seeks more time to reorganize (Crain’s)
“Lawyers for Sun-Times Media are asking for three more months to come up with an exit strategy, a request they considered “neither surprising nor remarkable.” The publisher currently has until July 29 to submit a reorganization plan,” writes Lorene Yue.

Vibe magazine shutting down (Daily Finance)
Jeff Bercovici writes: “Vibe enjoyed significant success in the late ’90s and early part of this decade as hip hop and R&B became the nation’s predominant forms of pop music. But in recent years the title has fallen on hard times under its new owner, the Wicks Group, which bought it in 2006.”

MSNBC Beat CNN on Weeknights in Second Quarter, Fox Still on Top (NYT)
Bill Carter writes: “The trend of cable news viewers moving away from CNN continued in the second quarter of 2009 with MSNBC beating CNN in weeknights for the first time ever for a full quarter of a year.”

In other news:

• Gannett Said to Prep Massive Layoffs (Gannett Blog)
• Times’ retirement plan hit by $154M loss (Boston Business Journal)
• Cable Hits a Big Winner With DVRs (WSJ)

Here is a selection of the day’s stories about the media industry:

US TV prepares for $2bn ad shortfall (FT)

“Digital video recorders that allow viewers to skip through commercials have knocked confidence in broadcast and cable advertising while younger, tech-savvy audiences are deserting their TV sets to spend more time online,” writes the Financial Times.

Smartphones, social networks to boost mobile advertising (Reuters)

Reuters reports: “As more consumers embrace new technologies and devices such as smartphones, personified by Apple’s iPhone, mobile advertising is seen growing at an annual average of 45 percent to reach $28.8 billion within 5 years from a current $3.1 billion, according to Ineum Consulting.”

Journalism Rules Are Bent in News Coverage From Iran (NYT)

Brian Stelter writes: “In a news vacuum, amateur videos and eyewitness accounts became the de facto source for information. In fact, the symbol of the protests, the image of a young woman named Neda bleeding to death on a Tehran street, was filmed by two people holding camera phones.”

MSNBC Aims to Raise Profile with HD (B&C)

“If a news network is going to attract casual viewers and turn them into loyal viewers, it helps to be in the same HD neighborhood as their cable news competitors. MSNBC in HD will launch at different times on different MSOs. It will debut on Cablevision on June 29 and on Time Warner in July. By the end of August, MSNBC HD will be available in 11 million homes,” writes Marisa Guthrie.

US: Decline in time spent at top 30 global news sites (Editors Weblog)

“Average time spent per visit decreased for more than half of the top 30 global news websites in May compared to last year, according to the latest Nielsen data. The trend mirrors the drops seen at the top newspaper sites,” writes Liz Webber.

In other news:
> Centenarians show it’s never too late to tweet (Reuters)
> FACTBOX-Viewer statistics for U.S. sports networks (Reuters)
> Tim Rutten: Too much Michael Jackson? (LAT)
> Why the New York Times Co. Will Be in Business Until at Least 2012 (Adverstising Age)

Location, Location, Location.

The World Wide Web has never had it, because there was no ordinary way for advertisers to know where someone was sitting as they surfed. That has made it impossible for the local hardware store to advertise to its neighborhood, or for national advertisers to target their ads geographically. It has also meant that cities did not have the means to warn residents surfing the web of a broken water main, an approaching storm, a forest fire, or a flash flood.  That may be about to change.

Feeva, a Silicon Valley start-up, has invented a way for advertisers to pay for “geo-demographic” placement. In effect, that means advertisers can choose their own zip or postal code — just as they do for mailers.

“What you get in your mail is all based on zip code,” said Miten Sampat, Feeva’s chief architect. “Zip code defines your income level, whether you have kids, how urban your environment is. But you can’t do this on the web, because geography is tough to guess.”

Feeva is teaming up with with Internet service providers — such as phone and cable companies– to detect the zip code of any computer surfing the web. Others who have tried to pinpoint computers, such as Phorm, have stumbled over privacy issues and Feeva is determined not to make the same mistakes.

“It’s not about what you are doing. We track no activity. It’s about what type of consumer you are,” Sampat said.  “All we do is say ‘This user is making a request for a web site. We know his or her demography with a high level of accuracy.’” The demographic information is sent nearly instantly to companies that place ads on web sites, and they can serve appropriate ads — or government notices.

That means that as three people in different zip codes surf any site — such as Yahoo, the New York Times, Google, or the one you are on now  — they will see different ads, based on their location. A surfer in a heavily student zip code might see an ad for cheap student travel, or for work as a tutor. A surfer living in a zip code with many young parents and homeowners might go to the same site and see ads for mortgages, or a local toy store. A person in a prosperous zip code with an older population surfing the same site might see ads for ocean cruises.

In an emergency, cities or other governments will be able to send warnings to their on-line residents.  As soon as someone refreshes their browser on a site that accepts advertising the warning will pop up.

“Our data informs advertisers about where they should focus their efforts,” said Nitin Shaw, chief executive of Feeva. “They get a better return on their investment, better efficiency.”  Shaw says web sites will be able to charge more for ads, at the same time that advertisers will get a far better deal because their ads are more likely to hit home. Feeva will get a small slice of the advertising revenue, as will the Internet service provider.

Shah expects the service to go live in 2010. For now, his company is still negotiating contracts with the many different kind of comanies, from Internet providers to ad servers.

Nobody likes to be wrong, including the people who run media companies. That’s why you haven’t heard them say things like, “We think the advertising market is recovering!” At a time when every day might bring a fresh descent into financial hell as financial companies and automakers totter, media companies reeling from ad revenue declines are hesitant to say that they’ve hit a bottom.

But consider some of the comments that Viacom executives made during their conference call with Wall Street bean counters this morning to discuss quarterly financial results. Here they are as they appeared in the alerts we sent out on the wire:

• 08:12 30Apr2009 RTRS-VIACOM INC’S <VIAb.N> CEO SAYS NOT SEEING ANY FURTHER DETERIORATION IN THE ADVERTISING MARKET
• 08:33 30Apr2009 RTRS-VIACOM INC’S <VIAb.N> CEO SAYS CUSTOMERS ARE STARTING TO FEEL MORE CONFIDENT ABOUT A RECOVERY EMERGING LATER IN THE YEAR AND GOING INTO NEXT YEAR
• 08:34 30Apr2009 RTRS-VIACOM INC’S <VIAb.N> CEO SAYS “WE’RE FEELING CONSIDERABLY BETTER” THAN TWO OR THREE MONTHS AGO

That sounds suspiciously like optimism. It also fits in with some of the comments that we’ve heard from newspaper publishers such as USA Today owner Gannett Co Inc. Magazine publisher and local TV station owner Meredith Corp had similar thoughts about the ad outlook.

The general story is: We’re still dealing with ad declines when we look forward to the rest of the year, and we’re not saying we’re all that happy about it, but knowing the rate of decline is not worsening is a good sign… if you think about it.

So, what will Rupert Murdoch tell us when News Corp reports its results next week? Murdoch’s recent statements have been pessimistic, but maybe Viacom Chief Executive Philippe Dauman is laying a path for Rupert to tell his employees and investors something they want to hear.

Keep an eye on

• Peter Chernin. The outgoing News Corp No. 2 might do many things after he splits, but joining Viacom isn’t one of them. (Los Angeles Times)
• Swine Flu! It might be bad for you, but it sure is good for companies that get rich from you going hog wild over trying to keep your hands clean. (The Wall Street Journal)
• Baltimore Chainsaw Massacre. Welcome to the new, leaner, meaner Baltimore Sun, courtesy of Tribune Co. The Sun’s management calls it a plan for success, not just survival. (Reuters)(The Sun)

(Photo:Reuters)

How do you sell TV advertising in this environment? If you’re Scripps Networks, you trumpet the product integration available in your make-over and do-it-yourself programs. You also make no bones about how difficult things are for advertisers and consumers.

At Tuesday’s Scripps upfront presentation (held at Cipriani 42nd Street), executives talked about these “very difficult and challenging times” and described viewers as “disillusioned,” “anxious,” and “frustrated.”

“There has never been a more important time than right now to reach out to viewers about their homes” said one Scripps executive.

Of course, Scripps is in a different spot than many other networks. Home to HGTV, The Food Network, DIY Network, Fine Living Network, and Great American Country, many of its shows are highly aspirational and played to an eager audience when money was flowing and houses were flying off the market.

Now the media company is betting that viewers will look to shows like “The Unsellables” or “For Rent” or “Income Property” as they trudge through the recession.

As HGTV President Jim Samples told the crowd of ad executives and press, “audiences look to us as an authority and they look to us for answers to their questions.”

Now, if you’re the Lifetime Networks, you take a completely different approach to this upfront season. As one executive said to me, “You don’t want to be too flashy, and you don’t want to be too depressing.”

In fact, at the Lifetime luncheon, held in a more modest room in the Hearst Tower, there was almost no mention of the current economic situation. Instead, executives chose to concentrate on the programming slate at the female-focused cable network.

The headliner was the arrival of unscripted fashion competition “Project Runway” this season, a show that Lifetime CEO Andrea Wong said she was “absolutely thrilled” to welcome to the network.

Wong has made no secret of her wish to bring big names to Lifetime, and Tuesday’s presentation gave her a chance to run through a list of well-known Hollywood stars who can be seen on Lifetime channels, either in returning shows and movies or new ones: Kim Delaney, Valerie Bertinelli, Cybill Shepherd, Joan Cusack, Michelle Pfeiffer, Ashton Kutcher, Julia Ormond, Gina Gershon, Rob Lowe, Jeremy Irons and Joan Allen, among others, will soon be turning up on Lifetime Network or Lifetime Movie Network.

As it turned out, Allen made one of the only references to the economy, saying it is a “tough time to make movies” and an “even tougher time to make movies about women.”

(Reuters photo of Joan Allen at the UK premiere of the Bourne Ultimatum in Leicester Square in London August 15, 2007)

Looking to expand its options for video content,  Verizon has quietly started to emulate DVD video technology in its FiOS television system. This means that its on-demand video offerings will eventually include interactive options such as extra chapters, subtitles or files with information about the actors in a show, just like movie DVDs have offered for years.

It’s also a way for the company to offer interactive advertising, currently on display under the marketplace option in its FiOS TV service menu. So if you like a car ad, you could click on a option to see more before you buy.

And because the adverts can be made in the DVD format it means “advertising sooner, easier and cheaper,” according to Joseph Ambeault, consumer video product development director of Verizon.

He says that because “more than 70 percent of consumers who use DVDS use the extras” Verizon sees the technology becoming very popular and “opening up a larger pool of content.” That potentially includes user generate content that could be sent to a FiOS1 local station, like the one due to launch soon in New York.

While Verizon is fond of adding “this is not something you find on cable” after describing its FiOS features, it looks like interactive advertising on cable rivals is right on Verizon’s heels.
In a story dated April 7, Associated Press describes how Ford could potentially send you an information packet on its new Mustang car after you’ve simply clicked on the yes button during an ad, a feature the wire service describes as “the future of cable TV advertising”

(Photo: Reuters)

There is no better way to learn about the art of product placement than to learn from the masters. Today, that means Microsoft Corp and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, both of which were the subject of articles about how they’re delivering their messages like little pills wrapped in the sugar coating of the entertainment you consume.

Ad Age:

Can Microsoft market its way out of the search basement? Probably not, but it’s going to try, entrusting [ad] agency JWT to craft a campaign for its new search engine, alternately dubbed Kumo or Project Kiev or Live Search, depending on who’s talking about it. … The service is being tested and is expected to make its debut in the summer. … Industry executives expect JWT, part of WPP, to unveil an estimated $80 million to $100 million push for the new search engine in June, with online, TV, print and radio executions. Microsoft spent $361 million on U.S. measured media in 2008, the bulk of it devoted to brand advertising and smaller chunks to other Microsoft brands such as Xbox and MSN, according to TNS Media Intelligence data.

The New York Times:

The huge [Gates] foundation, brimming with billions of dollars from Mr. Gates and Warren Buffett, is well known for its myriad projects around the world to promote health and education. It is less well known as a behind-the-scenes influencer of public attitudes toward these issues by helping to shape story lines and insert messages into popular entertainment like the television shows “ER,” “Law & Order: SVU” and “Private Practice.” The foundation’s messages on H.I.V. prevention, surgical safety and the spread of infectious diseases have found their way into these shows.

Now the Gates Foundation is set to expand its involvement and spend more money on influencing popular culture through a deal with Viacom, the parent company of MTV and its sister networks VH1, Nickelodeon and BET. It could be called “message placement”: the social or philanthropic corollary to product placement deals in which marketers pay to feature products in shows and movies. Instead of selling Coca-Cola or G.M. cars, they promote education and healthy living.

The Times story uses expert comments from the Kaiser Family Foundation, which has been doing this issue placement for years, and gave advice to the Gates Foundation about how to do this. One of the Kaiser officials told the Times that this “is not about planting a message.”

That’s exactly what Viacom must have been thinking when it was depositing Gates’s check.

Keep an eye on:

• Job cuts at Conde Nast and Forbes made an inordinate amount of news on Wednesday, even though they’ve already been gut-gut-gutting away. (MediaMemo at AllThingsD)
• Old media cable TV executives discuss strategies for making money when there’s less of it running around. (PaidContent)
• The Newspaper Association of America doesn’t generally crave publicity about the sad state of the business these days, but there’s an exception to every rule. Maybe that’s why the NAA got CEO John Sturm onto the Colbert report of all places. Our favorite part: Colbert suggested newspapers consider product-placement in stories, took a shot at the New York Times and asked Sturm: “If you’re serious about wanting to compete on the Internet, why don’t newspapers have a huge porn section?” (Chicago Tribune)

(Photo: Reuters)

The big story in the media for the rest of the week is the annual National Cable Telecommunications Association Show, or “the cable show,” as its commonly called.

This year’s primary topic looks like it will be how the big, traditional operators in the business will adapt to an age when the Internet is giving people more options to watch shows, and not always in a way that feeds the bank.

Here is our own take on the show from the Reuters wire:

Both sets of companies will be brainstorming on how to cope with or benefit from disintermediation: consumers can now watch decent-quality video online whenever they want, and often for free.

“Last year, cable companies were in a more probelgradetectionist mode but now they’re facing up to the inevitable trend, because online video is really here to stay,” said Tuna Amobi, equity analyst at Standard & Poor’s.

Executives will also have the economy on their minds.

“The current recession has cut into consumer spending for household TV and telecommunications, while also causing most marketers to reduce their advertising budgets,” said Collins Stewart analyst Thomas Eagan.

Longer term, the industry hopes to forge new tie-ups to capitalize on the online trend.

Broadcasting & Cable approaches the same topic, but with the requisite “it’s still early days” comment:

But with online viewing still amounting to a tiny fraction of actual viewing (not to mention revenue), the debate over a viable business model may be a lot louder than it needs to be. Cable networks, however, have to work with their pipelines to protect everyone’s interests.

“We’re constantly looking at evolving our economic models on our shows to ensure that we’re protected well into the future,” says Andrea Wong, president and CEO of Lifetime Networks. “I don’t think anyone has the magic answer yet. I think that we’re all trying to experiment and find new ways to do business together. I think we have to.”

Those last two sentences could have been taken from a newspaper executive.

MarketWatch reports on operators freaked out about the economic recession causing people to simply give up cable and do something else with their time.

Since last May’s Cable Show in New Orleans, the price of cable stocks have dropped by an average of 31%, with most of the declines coming after the September collapse of Lehman Brothers that triggered a worldwide financial meltdown.

The phenomenon of “cord-cutting” has been a concern of some cable executives, most notably Time Warner Cable (TWC) Chairman Glenn Britt, who has voiced his belief that the wide availability of free, ad-supported television shows online through sites like Hulu, Veoh and others has made it feasible to stop paying for cable or satellite service.

Keep an eye on:

• Speaking of cable and the Internet, Google’s YouTube signed a deal with Disney to offer ABC and ESPN clips on its Web video service. Disney might also put full-length shows on the Hulu joint venture betwen News Corp and NBC Universal. This is something that the cable guys mentioned above are watching with some alarm because, as we noted above, this stuff would be free, and no one wants to wind up like newspapers who gave away the store online for the past decade. (PaidContent and The Wall Street Journal)
• Speaking of newspapers, the Journal and The New York Times had the same bright idea: Profiles of the Detroit Free Press and Detroit News on their first day of delivering the news without a print newspaper. It was either genius, dumb luck or just plain dumb, depending on how you lookat it; big events in the collapsing auto industry, not to mention some other noteworthy stuff, made for a huge news day. That either spurred online interest or made readers scream because they had no paper to read about it. (The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times)
• More from newspaper land: The New York Times cut its staff and sought pay concessions on Thursday. Now the axe is swinging at the Times-owned Boston Globe. Thirty buyouts, 20 layoffs. (Boston Business Journal)
  Also, online ad growth “screeches to a halt.” Sigh. (Silicon Alley Insider)
• Google commits $100 million to its venture capital fund, according to unnamed sources, like it’s some kind of scandal. Google also names folks who will run it, fortunately showing its confidence in them by saying so on the record. (The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times)
• Google Maps is good at catching cheating husbands for free, if you can believe this report. (The Sun)

(Photo: Reuters)

Paul Allen’s Charter Communications has officially filed for bankruptcy, citing $24.2 billion in debt and $13.1 billion in assets.

The move has been expected for months. Still, it makes you wonder: Is this a good or bad thing for the company? For the industry?

That depends on who you are. As far as the company is concerned, the action gets its a $3 billion injection from investors.

It will reorganize so that it can better deal with its debt, although it may have to sell off certain assets before it emerges from bankruptcy.

That hefty debt makes it an unlikely takeover target, experts say, but that doesn’t mean that Time Warner Cable or Comcast or some other rival might not consider taking a closer look at Charter now that it has filed for bankruptcy protection.

And the plan is supported by Allen, Microsoft co-founder and one of the world’s richest men. One analyst however said it unlikely that those rivals will swoop in at this point. It is possible that Charter may revive itself in a few months, with much less of a debt load.

Charter's 2-year stock chart

Pity its shareholders though. At 3 cents a share, Charter’s shares are down more than 96 percent in the last year, and light years from the $5 mark its in 2007.

And it’s too soon to tell how all of this will affect Charter’s more than 5 million subscribers, which span 18 states.

Keep an eye on:

• Anchor Dylan Ratigan out at CNBC? (NY Post)
• Disney may get an equity stake in Hulu (Paid Content)

(Photo: Reuters)