For years we have interviewed media analyst/newsletter editor/industry maven Jack Myers about the television upfronts. We have tried to track him down at upfront parties, cocktail napkin in hand, to get his initial reaction on the new shows trotted out by the networks while he talks to the most senior executives. We have written up his forecasts and predictions on how many billions of advertising dollars the nets will say they have booked.

And now, in what may be the most definitive sign that more than 50 years of upfront fanfare has come to an end, Myers says he will no longer prognosticate on their outcome, according to an e-mail newsletter sent round today:

This year, I am not offering predictions nor will I report after-the-fact on network Upfront revenues. The Upfront is no longer a representative indicator of network performance and the information released by the networks is, at best, questionable. If a network ever actually reports poor performance in the Upfront, then we can be assured it was a disaster.

The change of heart makes sense given the total overhaul of the television industry. Networks are selling more and more advertising for shows not only when they appear on air, but on the Internet as well. A television writers’ strike over the winter that brought pilot production to a standstill means they have very few shows to preview to advertisers this year. The introduction of a new ratings system to account for DVR use has wreaked havoc on the numbers used to set advertising rates.

And of course, there’s the economy.

But we are definitely sad to hear this from Jack, whose predictions were so on target:

My own performance has generally been on-the-money, although last year I believed the market would be considerably softer than it, in fact, turned out to be.

Aside from the specific revenue forecasts, Myers does give general conclusions about the state of upfront negotiations. Based on his talks with industry leaders, he sees a reasonably quick haggling season that should end before the July 4 holiday weekend. He expects the networks to boost their CPM pricing and incremental revenue from their new digital distribution models.

(Photo: Reuters / ABC’s “Desperate Housewives” at the more festive 2007 upfronts)

That was fast. Already, in its first week, Grand Theft Auto IV sold more than 6 million copies globally, rocketing past expectations that were hardly modest to begin with.

So what is it with this game? Well, for one thing, it has been praised by gamers and critics alike who hail it as satirical and multi-layered, the equal of films like “The Godfather” or TV shows like “The Sopranos.”

Made by Take-Two Interactive Software’’s Rockstar studio, the game also has its share of detractors, who say it’s too violent and sends the wrong message to kids and young adults. Given the big sales the first week, the criticism doesn’t appear to have hurt its popularity.

But the real question is what does more than $500 million of first week sales of GTA IV mean for Take-Two?

Silicon Alley Insider says this: “Take-Two management has long argued that Wall Street didn’t understand what a hit GTAIV would be. When they did, the argument held, they’d bid the shares up. Time to find out. ”

And the Wall Street Journal points out, “Depending on how the sales figures impact shares of Take-Two, they could strengthen the company’s argument that videogames rival Electronic Arts Inc. needs to raise its unsolicited bid for Take-Two above $2 billion. EA has launched a hostile tender offer of $25.74 for Take-Two shares, which Take-Two has rejected as too low.”

Keep an eye on:

• Cablevision Systems will acquire Sundance Channel from General Electric Co’s NBC Universal, CBS Corp’s Showtime Networks and entities controlled by Hollywood actor and director Robert Redford.
• Clearwire Corp and Sprint Nextel Corp plan to combine their next-generation wireless broadband businesses to form a new $14.5 billion communications company (Reuters)
• Major studios and the Screen Actors Guild broke off three weeks of contract talks without agreement, stoking fears of renewed Hollywood labor unrest after a 100-day writers strike that ended in February (Reuters)
• Five years have passed since the Jayson Blair scandal shook the New York Times and the media world. MarketWatch’s Jon Friedman takes a look at how media organizations have fared in trying protect themselves from a similar situation (MarketWatch).

(Photo: Reuters)

It may not seem as sexy as Yahoo-Microsoft, but there is another notable takeover saga brewing in media. This one is between WPP, the British advertising group, and Taylor Nelson Sofres, the market research firm.

Why does WPP want TNS badly enough that it continued to urge the research firm to engage in talks even after its $1.9 billion bid had been rejected?

It’s partly because research has become so much more essential to advertising these days. With so many media outlets, it doesn’t come as a shock that advertisers are desperate for more information about their products and markets.

WPP Chief Executive Martin Sorrell expressed surpise and disappointment that the board of TNS turned down WPP’s offer. But perhaps this is just a bit of cat-and-mouse, with WPP prepared to come back with a bigger number for TNS, which is also talking with Germany’s Gfk. 

“Given the potential for greater returns, we believe WPP could afford a higher offer,” analysts at UBS said in a note to clients.

Of course, nearly everyone was saying the same thing about Microsoft over the last few weeks, and we know where that went.

(Reuters)

Keep an eye on:

• NBC Universal has reach an exclusive deal with with the “Project Runway” production team, less than a month after it was outbid for rights to the cable show by Lifetime Networks. Now a new production team has to be put in place. (LA Times) 
• Microsoft is adding TV shows to its Zune marketplace, offering rougly 800 TV shows, each for $1.99, for download from places such as Comedy Central, MTV and NBCU. (paidContent)
• CBS Radio CEO Dan Mason, meeting with advertisers, dismissed the notion that the iPod and satellite radio will kill radio. “To say that an iPod or satellite radio, with little or no human connection will ever replace radio is absurd.” (paidContent)

(Photo: Reuters)

Hold on to your hats, it’s time for the upfronts!

Or maybe it’s “hold your horses” instead. We forgot for a moment that this year the annual advertising bonanza is supposed to be a bit more subdued.

Still, CBS chief executive Les Moonves sounded fairly pumped up about the presentation on May 14, telling analysts that he felt “truly excited about this year’s show because it clearly showcases the way we are refining our media assets and updating our programming to match the needs of today’s market.”

Advertising prices, he said during CBS’s earnings conference call, have been up in the double digits in the scatter market, leading him to forecast a “healthy upfront selling season.”

But before negotiations get into full swing, there is the issue of the upfront presentations themselves. What will they look like after the screenwriters’ strike cut short the development season and prompted the industry to rethink (sort of) how it does business?

Moonves said that many of the network’s new 2008-09 shows were made as presentations rather than pilots. Presentations, he said, could be shot in five or six days rather than 10 or 12 for pilots, cost 50 percent less, and contain only what would be the key scenes of the storyline.

“To say we’ve saved tens of millions of dollars in development costs would be an accurate statement,” he said.

It remains to be seen what impact the shortened development season will have on quality, although Moonves said a “compressed” season could pressure writers into doing better work.

By the sound of it, that’s an educated guess by Moonves, who said he’s seen just two of the new CBS shows, “One which I absolutely adore.”

If CBS tosses its news operation and channels that of CNN, would you care? That conundrum brings to mind a tough question for the media industry as a whole: content may be king, but does brand matter, especially with news?

The New York Times says executives from CBS and Time Warner have discussed reducing CBS’s news-gathering capacity while keeping its top personalities, such as Katie Couric, and paying a fee to buy CNN’s news feeds. Or CBS might keep its correspondents in certain regions but pair them with CNN crews. Anchors like Anderson Cooper already appear on both networks.

Variety says insiders at the two companies “downplayed” the report.

Sure broadcasting legends like Fred Friendly and William Paley may be turning in their graves, but in a world of declining viewership for network news and increased popularity of news consumed on the Web or mobile devices with aggregators like Drudge and Google News, one wonders if this is a smart cost-cutting move for CBS. CBS news is mired in last place amid the continuing struggles of Couric, who was given a $15 million a year contract, to attract new viewers, the Times said.

UPDATE: CBS News officially denies there are ongoing negotiations with CNN.   CBS News spokeswoman Sandy Genelius:  “We’re extremely satisfied with and proud of our news gathering operation. No outside arrangements are being negotiated.” 

(New York Times)

Keep an eye on:

• Entrepreneur Media is up for sale — the first round of bids are over and it hopes to get around $200 million. (PaidContent)
• Facebook is close to settling a lawsuit brought by three former Harvard students who say the original idea for the social networking site was theirs. (NY Times)
• Hollywood studios urge the Screen Actors Guild to embrace the framework of the earlier deals reached with the directors and screenwriters unions. (Reuters)
• An online advertising network owned by News Corp, Fox Networks, has bought a majority stake in European video ad network Utarget as part of a move to expand in Europe and Asia. (Reuters)

(Photo: Reuters)