From the bearish forecast department: Screen Digest, a media research firm, issued an outlook today predicting a 5 percent decline in online advertising in 2009. Folks, we’re not talking about newspapers or network television or radio here. We’re talking about the Web.

Screen Digest put out the forecast in response to the IAB’s recent report on 2008, which showed Web advertising rose 10 percent. But the number that turned heads over at Screen Digest was IAB’s fourth quarter figure, which put online growth at a mere 2.6 percent.

Here’s what Screen Digest says:

Following the fourth quarter 2008 tipping-point, Screen Digest has revised its 2009-2010 forecasts for online advertising in the US. We now predict that all categories and subcategories except video will decline in 2009. Banner advertising (-8.8 per cent) will not be fully compensated by the double digit growth of online video, so that the Display category will be down 3.6 per cent. Search will shrink by two per cent and non-Display categories such as Classifieds will experience double digit falls. Overall, the total internet advertising market will shrink by five per cent (-4.8) in 2009 and only stabilize (+0.4 per cent) in 2010.

Still, some perspective… Screen Digest figures that even with a slump in Web advertising, it will still fare better than the broader market. It seen total US advertising spending down in double-digits this year, and some areas (like local TV) dropping by up to 20 percent.

Keep an eye on:

• Boston Globe employees reacted with a mix of resignation and anger on learning of the pay and benefit cuts and the lost job security that The New York Times Company wants them to accept as the price of keeping the money-losing Globe in business (NY Times)
• Nintendo Co Ltd said sales of its Wii game console have lost some steam in Japan, but it aims to boost demand again by launching a new version of its blockbuster “Wii Sports” software in June (Reuters)
• Three months after Democratic Presidential contender Barack Obama took the White House, Fox News is beating its rival cable news networks, General Electric Co’s MSNBC and Time Warner Inc’s CNN in the ratings game (Reuters)

(Photo: Reuters)

It’s inauguration day – and that means media will be going all out. From wires to newspapers to TV and radio, correspondents will be covering every possible angle of the event. And they won’t have a problem finding an audience.

The Hollywood Reporter writes that this could be the most widely viewed inauguration in U.S. history, surpassing the 42 million who watched Ronald Reagan’s first swearing in.

Like everything surrounding the 2008 presidential campaign, the inauguration of Barack Obama dawns with broadcast media swinging for the fences. Not only are the usual suspects bringing their A teams, but cablers as diverse as BET, TV One, Al Jazeera and ESPN are offering live coverage of Obama’s swearing-in. MTV will focus on inaugural coverage in the evening.

“CBS Evening News” executive producer Rick Kaplan, a veteran of every inauguration since 1973, said there is pressure on every network to make sure this one is covered perfectly.

“It’s an extraordinary event, and you want to get it right,” he said. “What everyone wants to do is report in a way fitting the amazing importance of the event. This is a critical period in our country’s history — you want to have your A game on this story.”

One network particularly keen to put its best foot forward is CNN. AdAge said CNN has signed more than 20 sponsors for two days of coverage.

Greg D’Alba, CNN’s exec VP-chief operating officer of ad sales, said the total client list is the largest the network has ever had for any one- or two-day event. “The election trail was more than any of us bargained for in many ways. Our brand became more, our coverage became more, the viewers became more and our users became more,” he said. “This is about the attraction and the empowerment of a brand. It’s no longer about a single medium; it’s about a network.”

Keep an eye on:

• Facing the worst ad downturn in a decade, Madison Avenue is eager to avoid any labor strife in its upcoming negotiations with commercial actors (NY Post)
• In an effort to increase their online exposure without breaking the bank, marketers are looking beyond the biggest Web search engines to find new places for their search ads (WSJ.com)

(Photo: Reuters)

Far be it for us to be the umpteenth person to assail Wired editor Chris Anderson’s much quoted and yet much maligned book, The Long Tail, but Time Warner would rather keep churning out more “Dark Knights” and “Harry Potters” than fiddling down its long tail, thank you very much

The Long Tail, as you may recall, argues that thanks to the digitization of content and much lower cost of distribution, content producers will see more of their sales and profits being generated by niche content i.e. the long tail of their sales graph.

But Time Warner, by many measures the world’s largest media company, says that while it is seeing more niche content sales, it would rather the humongous profits you can make with a super hit like “The Dark Knight.”

The executive charged with minding the tills,  Chief Financial Officer John Martin, told a Citi investor conference that the future of Time Warner is in the big hits — even on digital outlets like iTunes, where he said it is beginning to see sales trends getting closer to the physical stores’ with their focus on blockbusters.

As consumers have more flexibility and more control over the way they actually consume media, we see more and more of the usage going to the long tail niche content and more and more of the usage going to the long tail and more and more of the usage moving to the very very biggest hits and the biggest brands and that’s really the space we’re playing in.

Martin said his company, which owns cable networks CNN and HBO,  magazines like Time and Sports Illustrated, and movie studio Warner Bros, is seeing evidence of an increasing affinity for hits across all areas of its business.

Fewer and fewer DVDs account for more and more of sales according to Martin, the same thing is seen in magazine subscriptions with the top titles growing while some of the smaller titles slow down and more Top 10 shows are being recorded on DVRs by cable subscribers.

(Photo: Reuters)

The Obama administration looks like it’s getting a 3-for-1 deal in CNN Chief Medical Correspondent Sanjay Gupta if it really turns out to be true that he will be tapped for the new U.S. surgeon general: He’s a celebrity, a journalist AND a doctor!

Here’s Howard Kurtz of The Washington Post with the scoop:

President-elect Barack Obama has offered the job of surgeon general to Dr. Sanjay Gupta, the neurosurgeon and correspondent for CNN and CBS, according to two sources with knowledge of the situation.

Gupta has told administration officials that he wants the job, and the final vetting process is under way. He has asked for a few days to figure out the financial and logistical details of moving his family from Atlanta to Washington but is expected to accept the offer.

When reached for comment today, Gupta did not deny the account but declined to comment.

Not only that, the telegenic Gupta actually has been known to assemble well-crafted, real-life, heartwarming stories while in the field doing journalism.

Here’s an example, again from Kurtz:

His role as journalist and physician have sometimes overlapped. During the 2003 Iraq invasion, Gupta was embedded with a Navy unit called Devil Docs and, while covering its mission, performed brain surgery five times, the first of which was on a 2-year-old Iraqi boy.

What’s next? Defense Secretary Rupert Murdoch? Then the administration would be fair and balanced.

(Photo: Reuters)

Today’s a key day for Time Warner. Despite all the worries about a downturn in advertising and consumer spending, the media company managed to post higher-than-expected results. What helped? The summer blockbuster “The Dark Knight” for certain, as well as CNN.

Strength at CNN shouldn’t come as too much of a surprise given the closely followed U.S. presidential election. But some of the numbers are nonetheless pretty impressive: for example, CNN.com yesterday saw 27 million unique visitors and 276 million page views. Compare that to normal traffic of about 35 million page views.

Here at MediaFile, we just wish we could have demonstrated all of this noteworthy news with a Magic Wall or Hologram.

Keep an eye on:

• Demand for last-minute television ad time is falling sharply (NY Post)
• NBC’s “Saturday Night Live” and Comedy Central’s “Daily Show” were among the big winners in the presidential campaign (AdAge)
• U.S. News & World Report has decided to become a monthly magazine (NY Times)

(Photo: Reuters)

It’s a tough time for the news business, so Time Warner’s venerable CNN is looking for a new revenue stream: custom-made t-shirts . Click on a tiny icon next to the site’s top news stories, and you can add the headline to an attractive “high quality American Apparel t-shirt” for the low price of $15.99. The Web 2.0 goodness doesn’t stop there: You can also share your t-shirt on Facebook or submit photos to CNN’s iReport citizen journalism site.

There’s more! Waxy.org ’s Andy Baio discovered that with some rudimentary URL hacking, you can create a shirt — at least online — that displays whatever message you choose (it doesn’t seem to be possible to order up the shirt itself). This presents mischievous blogger-types with the opportunity to poke fun at various scandals and controversies.

Here’s one that’ll never see the light of day:

Submit your own CNN T-shirt headline in the comments section.

(Photo: Screenshot of CNN’s t-shirt site)