Let the second-guessing, the mock horror, the disbelief, the crowing begin.

Google CEO Eric Schmidt has acknowledged he realized upfront that he was overpaying to acquire YouTube, to the tune of $1 billion, judged by any conventional measures.

The many critics of Google's $1.65 billion deal to acquire the video-sharing site three years ago will claim this confirms everything they have always said about the deal. Not quite.

In fact, not really at all.

Schmidt came clean in a deposition by lawyers in the Viacom copyright lawsuit that there was very little revenue coming into YouTube to justify the price his company paid.

No surprises here. There were intangibles to consider:

1. YouTube's popularity was sky-rocketing, making it the runaway market leader among video-sharing sites.
2. It was crushing his company's own site, Google Video.
3. YouTube was up for auction and would be sold to a competitor unless Google jumped first.
4. Google overbid to ensure YouTube didn't fall into rival hands.

The Google CEO said he told his company's board of directors that the 18-month-old video-sharing site was worth $600 million to $700 million, according to CNet, which obtained a transcript of his testimony. Of course, he fails to mention the potential costs of copyright lawsuits that already loomed for YouTube.

"In the deal dynamics, the price, remember, is not set by my judgment or by financial model or discounted cash flow. It's set by what people are willing to pay," Schmidt says.

So the real justification for the 150 percent premium Google paid was in derailing, or at least delaying, the rise of a potential competitor. Of course, Google has faced a long struggle to find ways to make advertising work on the site in order to pay the costs of free video. Only last quarter could Google say YouTube would be profitable in the "not long, not-too-distant future."

Of course, all the fuss over YouTube's valuation is not really Google's problem. The real issue is the extrapolation of valuations of all the Web 2.0 companies since then which have used the YouTube price as the benchmark for all the other-worldly valuations of their unproven business models.

Here are the relevant excerpts from Schmidt's deposition by Viacom lawyers, via CNet:

Viacom attorney Stuart Jay Baskin: And what was management's valuation?

Eric Schmidt: Much lower than we paid for it.

Baskin: And how was that communicated to the board?

Schmidt: I told them.

Baskin: So why don't you tell us what you remember telling the board in connection with the valuation?

Schmidt: I believe YouTube was worth somewhere around $600 million to $700 million.

...
Baskin: What methodology did you use to come up with that number?

John P. Mancini, an attorney working for Google, objects.

Schmidt: My judgment.

Baskin: Was it based on cash flow analysis? Comparable companies? What were you using as the basis for your judgment?

Mancini objects.

Schmidt: It's just my judgment. I've been doing this a long time.

...
Baskin: I'm not very good at math, but I think that would be $1 billion or so more than you thought the company was, in fact, worth.

Mancini objects.

Schmidt: That is correct.

(Photo credit: Reuters/Jonathan Ernst)

Few observers expressed much surprise over Google CEO Eric Schmidt’s decision Monday to step down from Apple’s board. Analysts said the writing was on the wall, as Google’s Android smartphone software competes in the same market at Apple’s iPhone, and Google’s forthcoming Chrome operating system prepares to enter a market against Apple’s Mac OS.

Schmidt said earlier this month he expected to chat with Apple about his role on its board, and what with increased regulatory scrutiny about the company’s ties, many say it was only a matter of time.

“It’s the collision course that they’ve been on for a while, I think they’ve managed it well up to until now,” said Todd Dagres, a venture capitalist whose firm Spark Capital funded Twitter. “I think Eric getting off the board may be an indication of sort of the last straw here.”

The ties between the two companies do run deep, he said, noting that current Google director Ann Mather was CFO at Pixar while Apple’s Steve Jobs was CEO. But he said competitive juices among folks at both companies will start to flow as their empires bump into one another and “it affects your performance, your bonus and your market share.”

This is not the first time a CEO has stepped down as a director of another Silicon Valley company against a backdrop of competitive concerns, noted JMP Securities analyst Sam Wilson, who mentioned Carly Fiorina — then CEO of Hewlett-Packard — who left the board of Cisco Systems in 2003.  The two companies partner in some areas but are increasingly competitors in others.

Wilson said technology companies are always looking to branch into new markets, meaning today’s allies are tomorrow’s rivals. “Tech overall isn’t growing that fast, the pie isn’t growing that fast, so everybody is looking at everybody else’s piece of the pie.”

He said Apple’s recent rejection of the Google Voice app for the iPhone should be read as a sign.  “They’re no longer friends. I think when Apple turned off Google Voice it was clear they’re no longer friends.”

Allen & Co might have thought they were being helpful to executives by shutting out the working press from the usual mingling with the executives at the Sun Valley Lodge bar. Its annual media and technology conference includes the reminder to its attendees that they’re not supposed to talk to the reporters who fly out, uninvited but not unwelcome, to try to get the big guys to talk

Maybe it wasn’t so helpful. At least four CEOs told MediaFile and other reporters privately here that they were less than impressed with the decision. Executives who wanted to speak with individual reporters or hold court with several at a time had to do it outside the bar. And that’s just what many of them did, opting to hang with each other and various journalists in the lobby outside the bar, leaving the wonderful staff of the lodge’s bar to ferry drinks out to the crowd.

Google CEO Eric Schmidt held his annual sit down with reporters on Thursday by the fireplace in the lobby of the Sun Valley Inn, and a bunch of other top movers in the media world from Hearst Magazines chief Cathleen Black to News Corp CEO Rupert Murdoch and Time Warner Inc CEO Jeff Bewkes seemed to think little ill of jawing with the press during cocktail hour.

The hired security at the event said Allen & Co made the decision on Tuesday after someone complained. The decision reversed years of tradition here where the press and executives mingle in the evenings to have off-the-record chats and trade gossip.

On Saturday, the last day with just one (MediaFile) reporter left, the security seemed to relax a little. The head of security told this reporter, “I’m letting you get away with murder because you’re the last guy here.”

Let’s see if we can apply that policy to the bar next year. Everyone can use a little social lubricant, especially executives and the reporters who make their living off covering what they do.

Has Google stopped offering staff bottled water as it cuts back on costs during the recession? It’s not clear even after journalists spent time with CEO Eric Schmidt and co-founder Larry Page at the Sun Valley conference this week.

Page and Schmidt couldn’t seem to agree on whether bottled water is still available for free at Google’s Mountain View, California campus, which is renown for its generous buffet-style lunches free for all employees.

Schmidt was telling reporters how the company has worked to get itself “right-sized” to perform well financially regardless of the ongoing economic downturn. One of those cuts was water he claimed.

Page, ever the tech geek, backed this comment with data. “We did a long analysis and discovered that reducing bottled water didn’t cause people to drink less water and more soda.” So they got rid of the bottled water.

Schmidt at first agreed, then seemed uncertain: “I’m sure I’ve seen bottled water somewhere.”

Any Googlers’ care to share on the bottled water situation out there?

Nearly every powerful media and technology executive you can imagine has swung through the idyllic and affluent ski resort town of Sun Valley this week. Here are a few more snapshots from Reuters photographer Rick Wilking…

Michael Dell, CEO of Dell Inc, arrives at the Sun Valley Inn

Harvey Weinstein, of the Weinstein Co arrives at the Sun Valley Inn

Les Moonves, CEO of CBS Corp arrives

Cleveland Cavaliers basketball star LeBron James talks on a phone outside the Sun Valley Inn

Eric Schmidt CEO of Google, Bill Gates former CEO of Microsoft and Nathan Myhrvold of Intellectual Ventures in Sun Valley

(Photos: Rick Wilking)

That question has got louder and louder from investors and Wall Street analysts concerned that YouTube owner Google is racking huge profit-hindering costs to be the free online video platform for the world. It seems Google’s top guys don’t know the answer either — or if they do, they’re choosing not to share it with reporters on Thursday.

Google CEO Eric Schmidt told a media briefing at Sun Valley that he believes YouTube, which his company spent $1.65 billion to acquire three years ago, will come good thanks to its recent launch of new advertising formats such as pay-to-promote and pre-roll ads. “We’re optimisic that YouTube will be a strong revenue business for us because of these products,” he told reporters.

But the problem is investors are more concerned with the huge costs involved in streaming millions of videos globally everyday with a very small percentage of them covered by advertising. In other words when will YouTube make money from its dominance?

“We don’t make predictions,” said Schmidt. But then co-founder Larry Page piped in “It’s not that important.” Really? “I’m not worried it will be profitable, we want it to be very profitable,” Page said.

For Schmidt, an important part of YouTube’s future will involve more premium content from small three-man production teams to Hollywood studios. He acknowledged he’d like for YouTube to have some of the content of Hulu.com, which now features Disney-owned shows as well as NBC and News Corp programming. All three companies own Hulu. “We think we need premium content,” he said.

(Photo: Reuters/Rick Wilking)

Social media is a big topic of discussion at Sun Valley. And Google, the king of Internet search, has been talking to the various players.

Google CEO Eric Schmidt said on Thursday that he’s “chatted” with the MySpace folks while at the conference, and noted that Google has had many conversations with Twitter in the past.

Google’s $900 million advertising deal with MySpace will expire next year. Some analysts believe any new deal will involve Google paying considerably less money to run ads on MySpace, whose popularity been eclipsed by Facebook.

Asked whether Google would pay $900 million again, Schmidt replied “we never say never.”

“Remember the economics are different, the traffic is different, market positions are different. That’s why these deals expire,” he said.

As for Twitter, which was previously rumored to be a Google acquisition target, Schmidt said Google talks to Twitter a lot, though he did not specify about what.

“We’ve had a lot of conversations. There’s nothing to announce,” he said.

Google is moving to steal Microsoft’s lunch with its plan to release a PC operating system that competes with Windows. But when Eric Schmidt and Bill Gates crossed paths in Sun Valley on Thursday, lunchtime was all pleasantries.

As Gates was walking out from one of the morning conference panels for lunch, reporters naturally surrounded him to ask for his thoughts about the new Chrome OS announced by Google this week.

Before Gates had a chance to answer though, Schmidt appeared from behind and joked “it would be better if you don’t make that comment,” provoking laughter all around.

The pair shook hands and walked off together in conversation towards the garden where lunch was being served. Since reporters weren’t allowed in, the rest of the conversation is anyone’s guess.

(Photo: Eric Schmidt and Bill Gates talk outside the Sun Valley Inn on July 9, 2009. REUTERS/Rick Wilking) 

Reuters reporters Robert MacMillan, Yinka Adegoke and Alexei Oreskovic will be sending live updates from the Sun Valley gathering. Read their updates below or follow us on Twitter.

Allen & Co’s 27th Sun Valley media and technology conference starts on July 7 and ends on July 12. In the meantime, expect media writers to breathlessly report, blog, tweet, photograph and record the event. Why the fuss? There are literally hundreds of people coming who are known to do nothing else than run the universe when it comes to TV shows, movies, telecoms, the Internet and all sorts of other electronic communications. We have lists of all the people who bankroll them as well, along with a list of other interesting people you will find there.

Here, meanwhile, are the big men and women of media and technology who justify the travel budgets that increasingly hard-up news organizations have to put out for your favorite folks in the press corps to hide behind the hedges and hope for a handout that will break news, move markets and excite our editors. Keep in mind: this list is not a guarantee that these people are showing up; it’s just an invitation list (arranged alphabetically by company). We’ll update it as we learn more. (Our boldface names indicate some general viewpoint that they’re the stars of the stars.)

• James McCann, CEO, 1-800-flowers.com.
• Bobby Kotick, CEO, Activision Blizzard Inc. Also Brian Kelly, co-chairman.
• Jeff Bezos, CEO, Amazon.com Inc.
• Tim Armstrong, chairman and CEO, AOL
• Michael Ovitz, AMSEF LLC, former uber-talent agent at Creative Artists Agency and former Walt Disney Co executive.
• Gerhard Zeiler, CEO, RTL Group, Bertelsmann AG.
• Bill and Melinda Gates, of the foundation of the same name. Bill, of course, co-founded Microsoft Corp.
• Mark Vadon, executive chairman, Blue Nile Inc.
• James Dolan, president, CEO, Cablevision Systems Corp.
• Leslie Moonves, president, CEO, CBS Corp. Also Neil Ashe, president, CBS Interactive. Also Quincy Smith, CEO, CBS Interactive. (And a former Allen & Co man.)
• Charlie Rose, interviewer and anchor on the Charlie Rose Show
• Anthony Bloom, Cineworld plc
• Richard Parsons, chairman, Citigroup Inc. Former CEO, Time Warner Inc.
• Lowry Mays, chairman, Clear Channel Communications Inc.
• Ralph Roberts, founder, chairman emeritus, Comcast Corp. Also Stephen Burke, president and COO, Comcast Cable.
• Patrick Condo, president, CEO, Convera Corp.
• Jimmy Hayes, CEO, Cox Enterprises Inc.
• Richard Lovett, president, Creative Artists Agency Inc. Also Bryan Lourd, managing partner.
• Michael Dell, chairman and CEO, Dell Inc.
• Richard Rosenblatt, chairman and CEO, Demand Media. He used to work at MySpace’s parent company before News Corp bought it.
• Chase Carey, former DirecTV CEO and Rupert Murdoch’s new No. 2 man at News Corp.
• John Hendricks, founder and chairman, Discovery Communications. Also president and CEO David Zaslav.
• Jeffrey Katzenberg, CEO, DreamWorks Animation SKG.
• John Donahoe, president and CEO, eBay Inc.
• Dara Khosrowshahi, president and CEO, Expedia Inc.
• Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg. (We’ve heard conflicting reports about whether he’ll show. Either way, he’s still on our list.)
• Tom Freston, principal, Firefly3 LLC. Former Viacom executive.
• Martin Varsavsky, CEO, FON
• Jeff Immelt, chairman and CEO, General Electric Co.
• Jeff Zucker, CEO, NBC Universal. (GE)
• Ronald Meyer, president and COO, Universal Studios. (GE)
• Eric Schmidt, chairman and CEO, Google. Also co-founders Sergey Brin and Larry Page.
• Juan Luis Cebrian, CEO, Grupo Prisa. Also Ignacio Polanco, chairman.
• Emilio Azcarraga, chairman and president, Grupo Televisa. Also Alfonso de Angoitia, executive vp.
• Christopher Schroeder, CEO, HealthCentral. Also former CEO of Washingtonpost.Newsweek Interactive.
• Cathleen Black, president, Hearst Magazines.
• R. Todd Bradley, executive vp, personal systems group, Hewlett-Packard Co. Also CEO Mark Hurd.
• Barry Diller, chairman, CEO, IAC/InterActiveCorp. Also chairman, Expedia Inc. Also Victor Kaufman, vice chairman, IAC/InterActiveCorp.
• Lachlan Murdoch, executive chairman, Illyria Pty Ltd. Son of News Corp CEO Rupert Murdoch.
• Craig Barrett, former CEO, chairman, Intel Corp. Also Sean Maloney, executive vp, chief sales and marketing officer.
• Jeffrey Berg, chairman and CEO, International Creative Management. Also president Christopher Silbermann.
• Michael Volpi, formerly of Cisco Systems Inc and Joost.
• Eric Eisner, L+E Pictures. Son of former Walt Disney Co. CEO Michael Eisner.
• Kevin Reilly, CEO, Lamar Advertising Co.
• Michael Fries, president and CEO, Liberty Global Inc.
• John Malone, chairman, Liberty Media Corp. Also Greg Maffei, president and CEO.
• Reid Hoffman, chairman, president of products, LinkedIn Corp.
• Sam Altman, co-founder and CEO, Loopt Inc.
• Craig Mundie, chief research and strategy officer, advanced strategies and policy, Microsoft Corp. Also Robbie Bach, president of the entertainment and devices division, and Henry Vigil, senior vp, strategy and partnership.
• Rupert Murdoch, CEO, News Corp. Also with him is his second son, James Murdoch, chairman and CEO of News Corp’s Europe and Asia operations. Also Jonathan Miller, News Corp’s chairman and CEO for its digital media group. Former president and COO Peter Chernin, whose last day was June 30, is coming along too, in tow with CFO David DeVoe and new MySpace CEO Owen Van Natta.
• Gina Bianchini, CEO, Ning Inc.
• Jorma Ollila, chairman, Nokia Corp.
• Greg Wyler, founder, O3B Networks Ltd.
• Jeffrey Jordan, president and CEO, OpenTable Inc.
• Jeffery Boyd, president and CEO, priceline.com Inc.
• Maurice Levy, chairman and CEO, Publicis Groupe.
• Paul Jacobs, chairman and CEO, Qualcomm Inc.
• Robert Johnson, founder and chairman, the RLJ Companies.
• Jay Y. Lee, Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd.
• Kenneth Lowe, chairman, president and CEO. Scripps Networks Interactive.
• Mel Karmazin, CEO, Sirius XM Radio Inc.
• Max Levchin, CEO, Slide Inc.
• Sir Howard Stringer, chairman and CEO, Sony Corp. Also Kazuo Hirai, president of networked products and services group; Robert Wiesenthal, executive vp and CFO, Sony Corporation of America; Michael Lynton, chairman and CEO, Sony Pictures Entertainment; Hiroshi Yoshioka, executive deputy president, president of consumer products and devices group; and Nicole Seligman, top lawyer.
• Nick Grouf, CEO, Spot Runner Inc.
• Thomas Glocer, CEO, Thomson Reuters Corp, along with Niall FitzGerald, deputy chairman.
• Michael Eisner, the Tornante Company LLC. Former Walt Disney Co CEO.
• Lars Buttler, CEO, Trion World Network Inc.
• Evan Williams, co-founder and chairman, Twitter Inc.
• David Levin, CEO, United Business Media plc.
• James Berkus, chairman, United Talent Agency.
• Brad Grey, chairman and CEO, Paramount Pictures Corp (Viacom).
• Sumner Redstone, chairman, Viacom. Also Philippe Dauman, president and CEO.
• Jean-Bernard Levy, CEO, Vivendi.
• Robert Iger, president and CEO, Walt Disney Co. Also Thomas Staggs, CFO.
• Edgar Bronfman Jr, chairman and CEO, Warner Music Group.
• Donald Graham, chairman, CEO, The Washington Post Co.
• Casey Wasserman, chairman and CEO, Wasserman Media Group LLC.
• Harvey Weinstein, co-chairman, The Weinstein Co.
• Shelby Bonnie, CEO, Whiskey Media LLC.
• Jim Wiatt, William Morris Endeavor.
• Terry Semel, chairman and CEO, Windsor Media. Former Yahoo CEO.
• Martin Sorrell, CEO, WPP.
• Anne Mulcahy, chairman, Xerox Corp.
• Jerry Yang, chief Yahoo.
• Mark Pincus, founder, CEO, Zynga Inc.