One day soon you’ll be able to watch your TV everywhere: online, on-the-go, your phones, just about everywhere and Time Warner chief Jeff Bewkes wants you to know about it and believe it.

Bewkes, perhaps relieved to talk about something other than how best to get rid of AOL , took the opportunity on Time Warner’s first quarter earnings call to share more of his vision for how he plans to free your favorite TV shows from the shackles of the cathode ray tube box (yes, some of us still own those).

The way Bewkes sees it if you’re already subscribing to a TV channel at home, you should be able to watch it for free on broadband from any provider, wherever and whenever you want.

As he told analysts on Wednesday:

Over 90% of U.S. households already paying for television, programmers will be able to give consumers even more for their money. There’s a tremendous level of interest in TV Everywhere across the industry, and we’re working with several distributors on a trial slated for the second half this year.

But Bewkes was light on the details, such as how you overcome the technical challenge of “authenticating” subscribers’ access to programming when they might take video from one company; Internet from another and wireless connection from a third provider. Bewkes told analysts:

It seems pretty simple from the network’s point of view, it’s also pretty clear any channel network that’s got dual revenue streams has clearly got a benefit in making that channel and brand loyalty move across any platform or device because if I just speak for our company, it’s good for TNT or HBO that if you’ve got it in your home you can watch it out of your home and on (video on demand), and that we can then maintain the subscription payment you’re already making and the ad sales cross platform ability that’s in the media.

What seems to be simple is the principle, say most analysts, but execution may be another thing. Sanford Bernstein Michael Nathanson thinks Bewkes is probably looking at the bigger picture. Sometimes saying the right things can almost be as important as execution, said Nathanson.

I think what Time Warner is talking about in trying to examine what these digital models are and trying to ensure there is no value destruction is the right thing. Even if it doesn’t amount to anything I still think there’s value in trying to educate the market and some of its competitors about they should approach it.

(Photo: Reuters)

Far be it for us to be the umpteenth person to assail Wired editor Chris Anderson’s much quoted and yet much maligned book, The Long Tail, but Time Warner would rather keep churning out more “Dark Knights” and “Harry Potters” than fiddling down its long tail, thank you very much

The Long Tail, as you may recall, argues that thanks to the digitization of content and much lower cost of distribution, content producers will see more of their sales and profits being generated by niche content i.e. the long tail of their sales graph.

But Time Warner, by many measures the world’s largest media company, says that while it is seeing more niche content sales, it would rather the humongous profits you can make with a super hit like “The Dark Knight.”

The executive charged with minding the tills,  Chief Financial Officer John Martin, told a Citi investor conference that the future of Time Warner is in the big hits — even on digital outlets like iTunes, where he said it is beginning to see sales trends getting closer to the physical stores’ with their focus on blockbusters.

As consumers have more flexibility and more control over the way they actually consume media, we see more and more of the usage going to the long tail niche content and more and more of the usage going to the long tail and more and more of the usage moving to the very very biggest hits and the biggest brands and that’s really the space we’re playing in.

Martin said his company, which owns cable networks CNN and HBO,  magazines like Time and Sports Illustrated, and movie studio Warner Bros, is seeing evidence of an increasing affinity for hits across all areas of its business.

Fewer and fewer DVDs account for more and more of sales according to Martin, the same thing is seen in magazine subscriptions with the top titles growing while some of the smaller titles slow down and more Top 10 shows are being recorded on DVRs by cable subscribers.

(Photo: Reuters)

Christmas was good to Hollywood.

The top holiday movie, “Marley & Me,” sold an estimated $37 million worth of tickets during the traditional three-day weekend beginning on Friday, and overall Christmas Day sales reached $75 million, up about $10 million from last year.

While that’s good news, particularly during the downturn, it won’t be nearly enough to salvage an otherwise rough year in the movie business, as Reuters points out.

Still, Hollywood is on course for a down year. With three days left, year-to-date sales are off about 1 percent at $9.5 billion, while the number of tickets sold has slid 5.2 percent, Media By Numbers said.

“Bedtime Stories” was No. 2 for the weekend with $28.1 million and its Christmas Day haul of $10.5 million drove its total to $38.6 million, said Walt Disney Pictures. Sandler plays a man whose bedtime stories come true in real life.

“Benjamin Button,” in which Pitt’s character ages backward, did better on Christmas Day with a $12 million opening. Its weekend tally of $27 million took its total to $39 million, said Paramount Pictures.

The adaptation of an F. Scott Fitzgerald short story has racked up five nominations from the Golden Globes and eight from the Critics Choice Awards. Women accounted for 60 percent of the audience and 70 percent of ticket buyers were over the age of 25, Paramount said.

Tom Cruise’s fact-based thriller “Valkyrie,” about a failed plot to kill Adolf Hitler, opened at No. 4 with $21.5 million for the weekend and $30 million for the four days — much better than skeptics had predicted. The United Artists movie has been plagued by bad publicity and shifting release dates.

“We had obstacles to overcome,” said Erik Lomis, head of worldwide distribution at the studio’s closely held Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer parent. “But the movie speaks for itself.”

Keep an eye on:

• A top advertising researcher says U.S. ad spending actually fell in full-year 2007, with bigger drops seen in 2008 and expected in 2009. If true, it would mark the first three-year decline since the Great Depression (AdAge)
• The premiere episode of HBO’s offbeat comedy “Flight of the Conchords” has drawn 250,000 streams in its first 10 days on FunnyOrDie (The Hollywood Reporter)
• Stuart Elliott, of the New York Times, recaps the best and worst of advertising for 2008 (NYTimes)

(Photo: Reuters)

• Step right up and take your best shot. Think you’ve got a digital music player that can compete with Apple’s iPod? Bring it. Go ahead. Others have. Look what happened to them.

Think Microsoft’s Zune or Sandisk’s Sansa.

But one of these days somebody, somewhere is going to come up with a device that trumps the iPod. It’s only a matter of time. The question is, who will that be?

Well, one contender might just be News Corp. Its MySpace could eventually be interested in developing a player to go along with the big music venture it recently launched, it seems.

“It’s possible,” MySpace co-founder and Chief Executive Chris DeWolfe said at a conference in San Francisco when asked if the company would ever develop a player, Reuters reports. He added, however, that there are no immediate plans to make or sell such a device.

The advantage MySpace might have over others that have tried is its MySpace Music site. Launched in September with major music labels such as Sony BMG Music, Universal Music Group and Warner Music Group, the site lets users access a range of new music services, including streaming, music and ringtone downloads, videos, ticketing and merchandising.

If successful, MySpace Music could be a perfect launching pad for a digital device. Think of how iTunes and the iPod currently go hand in hand.

What’s more, News Corp’s Rupert Murdoch is always looking for a new mountain to climb — just ask the Bancroft family.

Keep an eye on:

• Several big advertising agencies have been reducing staff this year — and now the layoffs are coming even more quickly (NY Times)
• Time and Newsweek say the special election issues are selling out at newstands in major metropolitan markets (NY Post)
• Regal Entertainment Group, the largest operator of movie theaters, has seen its stock cut in half over the last year, and it could have further to fall (MarketWatch.com)
• HBO has closed a seven-figure deal for U.S. rights to an untitled Barack Obama documentary. (Hollywood Reporter)

(Photo: Reuters)

The Redstone family knows drama. Late last week, Sumner Redstone’s family holding, National Amusements, announced that it was making a substantial stock sale in each of its key holdings, CBS and Viacom to comply with debt covenants. 

But the sale raised questions about whether some of the proceeds from the sales were actually earmarked to fund and expansion of National Amusements movie theater business, as reported by the Wall Street Journal.

Sumner Redstone’s daughter, Shari, who runs National Amusements, issued a statement to the Wall Street Journal denying that the stock sale had anything to do with expanding the theater business.

“The implication that this stock sale was required by the operation and expansion of the company’s theater circuit is not accurate,” Ms. Redstone’s movie theater unit said in an emailed statement Tuesday. “National Amusement’s recent sale of a portion of its Viacom and CBS non-voting stock was the direct result of last week’s historic financial crisis, which included the precipitous drop in value of CBS and Viacom stock.”

Sumner Redstone has not publicly weighed in on the reason for the stock sale, and people familiar with the situation told the Wall Street Journal that he was caught off guard by the events. 

The sale — and the reason behind it — fueled more speculation about tension between Sumner and his daughter. For some time, the two have been at odds over a number of issues, including the direction of the movie theater business and her own professional goals.

Is more family drama ahead? Stay tuned.

Keep an eye on:

• EBay plans a major expansion of its fast-growing U.S. web classifieds unit, but experts doubt it can overtake well-loved rival Craigslist and build a viable business as its online auctions slow (Reuters)
• Financial Times-owner Pearson Plc said its adjusted 2008 earnings per share should be toward the top end of current market estimates if the dollar maintains gains versus sterling (Reuters)
• Colin Callender will leave his job as president of HBO Films by the end of the year to start his own entertainment production company (NY Times)

(Photo: Reuters)

Anybody out there in TV land riding an Olympic buzz (NBC’s ratings have been scorching) will be brought back down to earth by these numbers from SNL Kagan.

Cable TV ad revenue is forecast to grow at just 4.7 percent in 2009, the firm says. That compares to growth of about up 10 percent for 2008, when cable has been one of the few bright spots for media.  Or as paidContent sums it up, ”This year appears bad enough for media revenues, but for cable TV, 2009 is nothing to look forward to.”

The SNL Kagan numbers back up concerns that were voiced in an article by Reuters’ Kenneth Li after Viacom’s quarterly earnings report last month.

Although the portfolios of each conglomerate varies, making sweeping generalizations difficult, what unites them is a fear that a dramatic halt in newspaper and local advertising could seep into national advertising, namely cable and broadcast networks.

It is all the more troubling because cable networks are seen riding a high as their shows vie for award nominations as aggressively as they court broadcast viewers.

Here’s what the Wall Street Journal says about the SNL Kagan report:

In recent weeks, several cable-network groups have reported double-digit ad-revenue growth in the first half of 2008, bucking the weakness in the rest of the ad market. In part, TV advertisers have been saving money by shifting dollars from broadcast to cable networks, which cost less. “But that can’t go on forever,” says Derek Baine, a senior analyst at SNL Kagan. “Cable networks are already seeing demand slow, and that trend will likely continue and get worse as broadcast networks roll out their fall season.” 

Well, there’s always booming Internet advertising.  

Or not. Bloomberg reports on another study that says Internet advertising spending in the US will be lower than expected this year and next.

EMarketer plans to cut its forecast for 23 percent growth in 2008 by “a few percentage points,” said analyst David Hallerman. The New York-based research firm had predicted almost $26 billion in ad sales this year. Hallerman said his estimate for 16 percent growth in 2009 is “also probably too high.”

Keep an eye on:

• The decision to have a pretty face lip-synching during the Beijing Olympics opening ceremony instead of the actual singer was taken after consulting with broadcasters (Reuters)
• Former HBO Chief Executive Chris Albrecht has left talent agency IMG (Reuters)
• Best Buy will be the first national retailer to sell Appe’s iPhone in the United States in a partnership that could help drive sales of a device expected to be one of the hottest gadgets this holiday season (Reuters)

New York Times columnist Frank Rich plainly was missing something in his life: a creative consulting gig at a major cable network. See the release for details:

In this capacity, Rich will both initiate and help develop projects at the pay-TV network.
“Frank is one of the smartest and most astute observers of popular culture, and we are thrilled that we can call upon his judgment and superb instincts,” said Plepler and Lombardo.

And the important part for ethics-types, considering Rich will stay at the Times:

Rich will recuse himself from writing about HBO and Time Warner in his weekly OpEd column, which is largely about politics and public affairs.

The New York Times covered the story as well (circles within circles!):

Andrew Rosenthal, the editorial page editor of The Times, said that he had signed off on Mr. Rich’s deal with HBO, and that the top newsroom editors and the publisher, Arthur Sulzberger Jr., were informed and did not raise any objections. “There was no concern that there was a conflict of interest, because he no longer has any connection to news coverage of HBO or any related entity,” he said.

He added that Mr. Rich has severed his connections to The Times’s culture desk, which covers HBO. He has been an adviser to that desk, and from 2003 to 2005, his column appeared in the Arts & Leisure section, rather than on the Op-Ed pages.

Apple’s deal to start selling HBO shows will please fans of “Sex and the City” and “The Sopranos.” But will it open up a can of worms when it comes time for renewal talks with other TV show owners?

Since iTunes’s launch, Apple has stuck by a strict policy to keep pricing simple to attract new users. But seven years since its launch, it may be time to tweak the model. For years, content owners have demanded flexible pricing — perhaps charging more for some shows than others. What works for Wal-Mart, where bargain bins overfill with discount DVDs, will work on the Internet’s busiest content storefront.

With the HBO deal, Apple appears willing to explore the time-honored retail concept. A more flexible pricing policy could also bring NBC Universal back to the U.S. store.

Keep an eye on:

• Fox forms new branch to co-produce, finance and distribute local language films in Japan, Germany, India and Russia. (Hollywood Reporter via Reuters)
• Clear Channel settlement imminent. (WSJ)
• Dish Network posts higher profit, but subscriber growth slows. (Reuters)