Anybody out there in TV land riding an Olympic buzz (NBC’s ratings have been scorching) will be brought back down to earth by these numbers from SNL Kagan.

Cable TV ad revenue is forecast to grow at just 4.7 percent in 2009, the firm says. That compares to growth of about up 10 percent for 2008, when cable has been one of the few bright spots for media.  Or as paidContent sums it up, ”This year appears bad enough for media revenues, but for cable TV, 2009 is nothing to look forward to.”

The SNL Kagan numbers back up concerns that were voiced in an article by Reuters’ Kenneth Li after Viacom’s quarterly earnings report last month.

Although the portfolios of each conglomerate varies, making sweeping generalizations difficult, what unites them is a fear that a dramatic halt in newspaper and local advertising could seep into national advertising, namely cable and broadcast networks.

It is all the more troubling because cable networks are seen riding a high as their shows vie for award nominations as aggressively as they court broadcast viewers.

Here’s what the Wall Street Journal says about the SNL Kagan report:

In recent weeks, several cable-network groups have reported double-digit ad-revenue growth in the first half of 2008, bucking the weakness in the rest of the ad market. In part, TV advertisers have been saving money by shifting dollars from broadcast to cable networks, which cost less. “But that can’t go on forever,” says Derek Baine, a senior analyst at SNL Kagan. “Cable networks are already seeing demand slow, and that trend will likely continue and get worse as broadcast networks roll out their fall season.” 

Well, there’s always booming Internet advertising.  

Or not. Bloomberg reports on another study that says Internet advertising spending in the US will be lower than expected this year and next.

EMarketer plans to cut its forecast for 23 percent growth in 2008 by “a few percentage points,” said analyst David Hallerman. The New York-based research firm had predicted almost $26 billion in ad sales this year. Hallerman said his estimate for 16 percent growth in 2009 is “also probably too high.”

Keep an eye on:

• The decision to have a pretty face lip-synching during the Beijing Olympics opening ceremony instead of the actual singer was taken after consulting with broadcasters (Reuters)
• Former HBO Chief Executive Chris Albrecht has left talent agency IMG (Reuters)
• Best Buy will be the first national retailer to sell Appe’s iPhone in the United States in a partnership that could help drive sales of a device expected to be one of the hottest gadgets this holiday season (Reuters)

New York Times columnist Frank Rich plainly was missing something in his life: a creative consulting gig at a major cable network. See the release for details:

In this capacity, Rich will both initiate and help develop projects at the pay-TV network.
“Frank is one of the smartest and most astute observers of popular culture, and we are thrilled that we can call upon his judgment and superb instincts,” said Plepler and Lombardo.

And the important part for ethics-types, considering Rich will stay at the Times:

Rich will recuse himself from writing about HBO and Time Warner in his weekly OpEd column, which is largely about politics and public affairs.

The New York Times covered the story as well (circles within circles!):

Andrew Rosenthal, the editorial page editor of The Times, said that he had signed off on Mr. Rich’s deal with HBO, and that the top newsroom editors and the publisher, Arthur Sulzberger Jr., were informed and did not raise any objections. “There was no concern that there was a conflict of interest, because he no longer has any connection to news coverage of HBO or any related entity,” he said.

He added that Mr. Rich has severed his connections to The Times’s culture desk, which covers HBO. He has been an adviser to that desk, and from 2003 to 2005, his column appeared in the Arts & Leisure section, rather than on the Op-Ed pages.

Apple’s deal to start selling HBO shows will please fans of “Sex and the City” and “The Sopranos.” But will it open up a can of worms when it comes time for renewal talks with other TV show owners?

Since iTunes’s launch, Apple has stuck by a strict policy to keep pricing simple to attract new users. But seven years since its launch, it may be time to tweak the model. For years, content owners have demanded flexible pricing — perhaps charging more for some shows than others. What works for Wal-Mart, where bargain bins overfill with discount DVDs, will work on the Internet’s busiest content storefront.

With the HBO deal, Apple appears willing to explore the time-honored retail concept. A more flexible pricing policy could also bring NBC Universal back to the U.S. store.

Keep an eye on:

• Fox forms new branch to co-produce, finance and distribute local language films in Japan, Germany, India and Russia. (Hollywood Reporter via Reuters)
• Clear Channel settlement imminent. (WSJ)
• Dish Network posts higher profit, but subscriber growth slows. (Reuters)