Comcast Chief Executive Brian Roberts took time out from strategizing over his company’s reported bid to buy NBC Universal to speak at the Web 2.0 Conference in San Francisco on Tuesday. As expected, Roberts declined to comment on any ”specific” deals including NBC. But he did indicate as he has done in the past that content will be an important part of his company’s future and that it is always “prudent” to take a look at opportunities as they come up.

While he remained on message (or is that off message?), Jeff Immelt, his counterpart at NBC Universal’s parent General Electric, was a little more forthcoming, saying the company is considering its options for NBC Universal which could include keeping it.

In this 43 minute interview, Roberts also talked on a range of other topics including the importance of building faster Internet services and gave a demostration of his company’s On Demand Online service which he said will be launching nationally before the end of the year.

When most Americans think of where to catch up with episodes of their favorite TV shows on the Web, they more than likely think of Hulu, the online video site owned by NBC, News Corp and Disney that offers free viewing of TV broadcast shows and archive movies. Second to Hulu would probably be YouTube.

But not Fancast. Despite being owned by the largest U.S. cable TV operator Comcast, it doesn’t even make the top 10 video sites in the U.S., according to comScore data. (Hulu is No. 5). One of the ways Hulu became better known was by launching a national TV advertising campaign which kicked off during this year’s Super Bowl TV extravaganza. Hulu’s user numbers jumped after those ads — and Fancast hopes for a similar boost.

Fancast has dubbed its debut TV campaign “See It For Yourself” and will feature a series of five spots with recaps of shows including CSI Miami, Glee, NCIS, How I Met Your Mother and Gilligan’s Island. Three TV spots will debut on CBS and also on targeted national cable networks. See the Fancast/CSI ad here: The campaign also features an online push and an outdoor drive with interactive bus shelters around the San Francisco area.

In truth, beating Hulu might not be Comcast’s biggest prize. It’s more likely to have its eye on its On Demand Online /TV Everywhere initiatives, which aim to make popular cable shows available on demand to paying subscribers. Fancast will be one of Comcast’s key platforms for that new service when it fully rolls out so building awareness of the site now is important.

(Photo: CSI Miami’s David Caruso/Reuters)

YouTube executives and spinmeisters have been pushing back more aggressively at the perception that the video site is a great big drain on Google’s bottomline, probably  losing $200 million to $500 million a year by some estimates. These execs say that hundreds of major advertisers are taking spots on YouTube against “hundreds of millions” of video views every week.

The problem with this is the lack of precise details. How much revenue is YouTube generating from these monetized videos exactly (even approximately)? And how much does it cost to stream and store those hundreds of millions of videos every week? Google and YouTube decline to provide any numbers other than to say things are moving in the right direction. Wall Street and investors are yet to be convinced.

Goldman Sachs analyst James Mitchell is the latest to have a shot at a respectable estimate for YouTube. He says it will generate around $300 million in 2009. He also thinks the best is yet to come from YouTube — and that Google will see some benefit.

We believe YouTube revenue will grow at 40 percent year-over-year or faster in 2010 as YouTube is generally under-monetizing its home page traffic versus peers, and as its home page is a natural venue for studios to advertise new movies.

For Google investors, the most important part of Mitchell’s analysis is that he thinks display advertising, of which YouTube is a major part alongside DoubleClick, could add 1-2 percent to Google’s revenue growth.

In the meantime, the majority of the videos uploaded to YouTube are done so by its users — and as the world’s most popular Web video site YouTube has a lot of users. Over a 100 million in the U.S. alone according to comScore. Goldman Sachs’ Mitchell says:

We do not expect serving query-specific video advertisements to represent a substantial business for the foreseeable future given branded advertiser discomfort with unknown content, and given consumer unwillingness to tolerate 30-second advertisements against 60 seconds or less of content; however, Google does not need such advertising to make YouTube profitable given YouTube’s cost leverage against Google’s existing assets and homepage traffic.

YouTube is signing up more so called professional content such as its latest deal with Time Warner on Wednesday with shows like “Ellen Degeneres Show” and “Gossip Girls”. For now, most of what they’re getting from Time Warner and others like Disney is promotional clips. We asked about getting more full-length shows like Hulu, and executives gave a very ‘watch this space’ type of response.

YouTube, meanwhile, is working hard to show that getting people to watch more and more video online is not as easy as it looks and involves lots of clever technology and algorithms that its engineers have been working on.  The idea — as the Wall Street Journal’s Digits blog explains — is to  make sure “people don’t just watch one video when they come to  the site”.

The company’s engineers are looking for ways to predict what topics will pique a user’s interest after they’re done watching a certain video, based on data about their viewing behavior.

Technology market research firm Gartner Inc has published the 2009 "Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies," its effort to chart out what's hot or not at the cutting edge of hi-tech jargon. It's just one of an annual phalanx of reports that handicap some 1,650 technologies or trends in 79 different categories for how likely the terms are to make it into mainstream corporate parlance.

Jackie Fenn, the report's lead analyst and author of the 2008 book "Mastering the Hype Cycle," delivers the main verdict:

Technologies at the Peak of Inflated Expectations during 2009 include cloud computing, e-books (such as from Amazon and Sony) and internet TV (for example, Hulu), while social software and microblogging sites (such as Twitter) have tipped over the peak and will soon experience disillusionment among corporate users.

Click to enlarge

What's most interesting in the report, now in its 14th year, is what the corporate research firm says is a long way off from the mainstream.

It will take up to five years for many of today's trendy technologies to become mainstream, including Web 2.0, cloud computing, Internet TV, virtual worlds, and a true corporate mouthful, service-oriented architecture (SOA).

Funny how long hype cycles take to pay out. Three years ago, in its 2006 Hype Cycle Report, Gartner predicted Web 2.0 would go mainstream within just two years.

More than five years out, which means nearly dead in terms of industry attention, are technologies such as the once hot radio-frequency ID (RFID) concept, along with mobile robots and human augmentation and some absurdly high concepts like context-delivery architectures.

The second chart, on the right, describes Gartner's methodology. It's all very imprecise, but a game worth playing.

Images: Gartner (August 2009)

Emerging Technology Hype Cycle archives
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That question has got louder and louder from investors and Wall Street analysts concerned that YouTube owner Google is racking huge profit-hindering costs to be the free online video platform for the world. It seems Google’s top guys don’t know the answer either — or if they do, they’re choosing not to share it with reporters on Thursday.

Google CEO Eric Schmidt told a media briefing at Sun Valley that he believes YouTube, which his company spent $1.65 billion to acquire three years ago, will come good thanks to its recent launch of new advertising formats such as pay-to-promote and pre-roll ads. “We’re optimisic that YouTube will be a strong revenue business for us because of these products,” he told reporters.

But the problem is investors are more concerned with the huge costs involved in streaming millions of videos globally everyday with a very small percentage of them covered by advertising. In other words when will YouTube make money from its dominance?

“We don’t make predictions,” said Schmidt. But then co-founder Larry Page piped in “It’s not that important.” Really? “I’m not worried it will be profitable, we want it to be very profitable,” Page said.

For Schmidt, an important part of YouTube’s future will involve more premium content from small three-man production teams to Hollywood studios. He acknowledged he’d like for YouTube to have some of the content of Hulu.com, which now features Disney-owned shows as well as NBC and News Corp programming. All three companies own Hulu. “We think we need premium content,” he said.

(Photo: Reuters/Rick Wilking)

Here are some of the day’s stories on the media industry:

‘Tonight Show’ Audience a Decade Younger (NYT)
“In Mr. O’Brien’s first month as host, the median age of “Tonight Show” viewers has fallen by a decade — to 45 from 55, a startling shift in such a short time. This audience composition means advertisers can now address almost exclusively young viewers on “Tonight,” and NBC is already contemplating a shift in how it sells the show,” writes Bill Carter.

Springer’s daily Welt dreams of going international - again (Reuters)

“German publisher Axel Springer plans to launch an international weekly edition of its flagship daily, Die Welt, in a 48-page tabloid format starting February 2010. Springer is still mulling distribution options but the paper will likely be available from airlines,” writes Nicola Leske.

Just the Messenger: Mediaite.com Focuses on Celebrity of Journalism (WP)
On the newly launched website, Howard Kurtz writes: “Mediaite paints with a colorful palette, even if its hues will appeal mainly to journalists and those who obsess over them. By hiring bloggers who worked for Mediabistro and the Huffington Post, Abrams has put together a sassy critique of media missteps and foibles, an overall take not driven mainly by ideology.”

Cubs sale finalized for TribCo (Crain’s)
“Tribune Co. has finalized a deal to sell the Chicago Cubs to a bidding group led by bond salesman Thomas Ricketts. Documents describing the fully financed deal were sent to Major League Baseball over the weekend, a source familiar with the negotiations said Monday. The value of the deal is between $850 million and $900 million, the source said.”

Food Network magazine is media’s next wave (MarketWatch)
“Hearst executives are very pleased with the magazine’s progress. The company started out by printing 300,000 copies last fall. Hearst now projects the publication’s rate base, the circulation figure that publishers promise to advertisers, will climb to 900,000 later this year and to 1.1 million in 2010,” writes Jon Friedman.

Hulu plans September bow in U.K. (Variety)
Steve Clarke writes: “Hulu, co-owned by News Corp., NBC Universal and Providence Equity Partners, is believed to be offering broadcasters equity stakes in the U.K. service plus a share of online advertising revenues. (Disney has a deal pending to become a co-owner.)”

In other news:

• Two new blogs offer daily tips for business journalists (BusinessJournalism.org)

• Behind the launch of the Rocky Mountain Independent (Westword)

• Talking Point$ Memo (CJR.org)

Starting today Disney content will go live on Hulu, consumating a deal that was struck earlier this year to join the two-year venture with NBC Universal, News Corp and Providence Equity Partners.

The first few shows include popular fare from ABC such as Grey’s Anatomy,  Desperate Housewives and Ugly Betty. This means Hulu is going from strength to strength in locking down its leadership as the place for watching TV on the Web.

Part of the attraction of Hulu is that it is free for U.S. residents, since most of the content can be watched for free over the air in the U.S. But we wouldn’t be surprised if Hulu’s owners added a paid service as part of the TV Everywhere initiative players like Time Warner have been promoting. Such a ‘paid-for’ service would actually be free if the customer is already a paying cable/satellite TV subscriber.

Hulu is also making strides to launch in the UK soon.

In the meantime, if you’re stuck at your desk tomorrow at 9.30am PST (12.30pm EST) you can watch the Michael Jackson service live from the Staples Center in Los Angeles.  The broadcast is being provided to Hulu by half-sister network Fox News. After the live-stream, Hulu will also offer on-demand access of the entire memorial service.

News broke this week that Anheuser-Busch has told NBC that the brewer will spend only about half as much on advertising packages during the upcoming 2010 Vancouver Winter Olympic Games and 2012 Summer Games in London, compared to previous years.

Over at 30 Rock, they aren’t too worried about it. NBC Universal Chief Executive Jeff Zucker, who won wide praise for the company’s coverage of the Beijing Olympics, feels that there are plenty of advertisers ready to step in and replace any company that wants or needs to cut their spending on the sporting event.

When we asked Zucker about the Anheuser-Busch situation, he said, “The interest in the Olympics — because it’s such a unique event — has been extraordinary. Where certain companies decide it doesn’t work for them anymore, it provides an opportunity for their competitors to come in. That works out just fine for us.”

As for Hulu, which Disney joined yesterday, Zucker said he’s very happy with its progress, calling it the “preeminent site” for online videos. Even so, he’s not about to cannibalize either NBC Universal’s own TV networks or its website by handing over content like the Olympics. “I think the Olympics is something that’s pretty proprietary and is unique to our owned properties.

Oh, and don’t expect NBC Universal to become a big buyer of media properties even as valuations for some web properties have sunk like a stone. “We’ve been very proud of what we’ve grown organically here. Between Hulu and NBC.com and CNBC.com and MSNBC.com. Our digital strategy now is to enhance what we’ve grown here in the last 18 months.” In other words, focus on organic growth rather than acquisitions.

Keep an eye on:

• Don’t sweat the recession and depressed DVD sales, because Hollywood might be headed for its best year ever at the box office (WSJ.com)

• Is the Boston Globe about to be closed? It’s deadline day for the New York Times Co. (Reuters)

• You could soon see prices dipping on some of the most popular Macs — a big change for Apple (AppleInsider)

(Photo: Reuters)

Hulu continues its rapid ascent up the video charts, cracking the top three online video sites in the U.S. for the first time in March.

Some 380 million videos were viewed on Hulu.com, up 14.3 percent from February, according to market research firm comScore.

That allowed the NBC Universal and News Corp joint venture to steal the No.3 spot from Yahoo, whose total number of videos viewed in March actually declined by roughly 5 percent from February. Hulu held a 2.6 percent share of the 14.5 billion videos viewed in the U.S. last month.

Hulu has seen its popularity grow following TV ads that ran during the Super Bowl in January. In December, it was the No.7 ranked video site in the U.S.

Impressive as Hulu’s growth has been, the site is still not even in the same universe as YouTube, owned by Google. Google remained the No.1 video site in March, according to comScore, with 5.9 billion videos viewed, for a 40.9 percent market share.

Fox Interactive Media, owner of MySpace, held on to its spot as the No.2 place for online vids, although its market share shrank from 3.5 percent in February to 3 percent in March.

This may seem obvious to anybody who’s sat beside an iPhone user on the subway but ComScore’s latest research confirms it anyway. Games are one of the hottest iTunes Apps downloaded, and those who download them are well-paid social-site viewers ripe for some kind of new advertsing scheme.

According to the research firm twelve of the 25 most popular mobile apps were games including oldies like Hangman and Pac-man, and newer titles like “Cube Runner”, ”Crazy Penguin Catapult“, and (the top game) Tapulous’s “Tap Tap Revenge”. 

It cited Stylem Media’s “Backgrounds” applications as most downloaded of non-games, just ahead of social network apps like Facebook and MySpace. 

ComScore did not measure how much advertising already comes along with Apple apps, but did offer stats that seemed to say: “psst… there’s lots of advertising opportunity right here. “  

Among the facts about Apps Store shoppers:

• Apple app users are a “particularly desirable audience” for advertising with a higher-than-average income and a fondness for online media. 
• About 35 percent of app users are part of a household with an annual income of $100,000 or more while 54 percent make $75,000 or more, according to the research. 
• They are also at least three times more likely to visit entertainment, social networking and communications sites than the average Internet user, ComScore said. It named online destinations such as AOL Instant Messenger, Hulu, Twitter, Digg.com, iMeem MTV.com.

ComScore analyst Mark Donovan said the Apps store could become an even more effective place to sell adds after Apple starts to support new payment models such as subscriptions and the sale of add-on modules for existing applications, such as the addition of new destinations for a travel guide. But he said that advertisers will have to be careful not to be too intrusive on the app users.  

“We saw pop-up ads come and go. We’re in the process of learning the most effective ways of delivering mobile advertising” he said.

(Photo: Reuters)