From the bearish forecast department: Screen Digest, a media research firm, issued an outlook today predicting a 5 percent decline in online advertising in 2009. Folks, we’re not talking about newspapers or network television or radio here. We’re talking about the Web.

Screen Digest put out the forecast in response to the IAB’s recent report on 2008, which showed Web advertising rose 10 percent. But the number that turned heads over at Screen Digest was IAB’s fourth quarter figure, which put online growth at a mere 2.6 percent.

Here’s what Screen Digest says:

Following the fourth quarter 2008 tipping-point, Screen Digest has revised its 2009-2010 forecasts for online advertising in the US. We now predict that all categories and subcategories except video will decline in 2009. Banner advertising (-8.8 per cent) will not be fully compensated by the double digit growth of online video, so that the Display category will be down 3.6 per cent. Search will shrink by two per cent and non-Display categories such as Classifieds will experience double digit falls. Overall, the total internet advertising market will shrink by five per cent (-4.8) in 2009 and only stabilize (+0.4 per cent) in 2010.

Still, some perspective… Screen Digest figures that even with a slump in Web advertising, it will still fare better than the broader market. It seen total US advertising spending down in double-digits this year, and some areas (like local TV) dropping by up to 20 percent.

Keep an eye on:

• Boston Globe employees reacted with a mix of resignation and anger on learning of the pay and benefit cuts and the lost job security that The New York Times Company wants them to accept as the price of keeping the money-losing Globe in business (NY Times)
• Nintendo Co Ltd said sales of its Wii game console have lost some steam in Japan, but it aims to boost demand again by launching a new version of its blockbuster “Wii Sports” software in June (Reuters)
• Three months after Democratic Presidential contender Barack Obama took the White House, Fox News is beating its rival cable news networks, General Electric Co’s MSNBC and Time Warner Inc’s CNN in the ratings game (Reuters)

(Photo: Reuters)

The Interactive Advertising Bureau and PricewaterhouseCoopers issued their latest web spending figures, which are helpful if you care about what happened in the first six months of the year.

The trouble is what companies spent on Web banner or search ads in February or April or June suddenly seems almost quaint, if not irrelevant.

Will advertising budgets and plans look any different after a complete restructuring of the financial services sector? After a $700 billion rescue package? After the Dow Jones industrial average sunk below 10,000? Seems very likely.

But, as the IAB made clear, they aren’t about making forecasts.

“I want to remind everyone that we don’t engage in predicting,” an IAB executive said during a conference call to unveil their report. “And I’m very happy given what’s going on in the big broad world that we’re not engaged in predicting.”

So, here’s a look back at what was happening when people were still talking about “economic concerns” rather than “economic crisis.” From the IAB report:

Internet advertising revenues (U.S.) for the first six months of 2008 were $11.5 billion, setting yet another new half-year record that represents a 15.2 percent increase over the first half of 2007. The second quarter of ‘08 was up 12.8% over the same period of 2007 and showed a slight decline of 0.3% from the first quarter.

Search and Display-related advertising continue to set records. Search revenues totaled almost $5.1 billion for the first six months of 2008, up 24 percent from the $4.1 billion for the same period in 2007. Display-related advertising totaled close to $3.8 billion for first six months of 2008, compared to the $3.2 billion reported for the same period in 2007, showing about a 19% increase.