Anybody out there in TV land riding an Olympic buzz (NBC’s ratings have been scorching) will be brought back down to earth by these numbers from SNL Kagan.

Cable TV ad revenue is forecast to grow at just 4.7 percent in 2009, the firm says. That compares to growth of about up 10 percent for 2008, when cable has been one of the few bright spots for media.  Or as paidContent sums it up, ”This year appears bad enough for media revenues, but for cable TV, 2009 is nothing to look forward to.”

The SNL Kagan numbers back up concerns that were voiced in an article by Reuters’ Kenneth Li after Viacom’s quarterly earnings report last month.

Although the portfolios of each conglomerate varies, making sweeping generalizations difficult, what unites them is a fear that a dramatic halt in newspaper and local advertising could seep into national advertising, namely cable and broadcast networks.

It is all the more troubling because cable networks are seen riding a high as their shows vie for award nominations as aggressively as they court broadcast viewers.

Here’s what the Wall Street Journal says about the SNL Kagan report:

In recent weeks, several cable-network groups have reported double-digit ad-revenue growth in the first half of 2008, bucking the weakness in the rest of the ad market. In part, TV advertisers have been saving money by shifting dollars from broadcast to cable networks, which cost less. “But that can’t go on forever,” says Derek Baine, a senior analyst at SNL Kagan. “Cable networks are already seeing demand slow, and that trend will likely continue and get worse as broadcast networks roll out their fall season.” 

Well, there’s always booming Internet advertising.  

Or not. Bloomberg reports on another study that says Internet advertising spending in the US will be lower than expected this year and next.

EMarketer plans to cut its forecast for 23 percent growth in 2008 by “a few percentage points,” said analyst David Hallerman. The New York-based research firm had predicted almost $26 billion in ad sales this year. Hallerman said his estimate for 16 percent growth in 2009 is “also probably too high.”

Keep an eye on:

• The decision to have a pretty face lip-synching during the Beijing Olympics opening ceremony instead of the actual singer was taken after consulting with broadcasters (Reuters)
• Former HBO Chief Executive Chris Albrecht has left talent agency IMG (Reuters)
• Best Buy will be the first national retailer to sell Appe’s iPhone in the United States in a partnership that could help drive sales of a device expected to be one of the hottest gadgets this holiday season (Reuters)

 NBC is putting up big numbers so far in the Olympics.

Start with the opening ceremony. While some complained that the event couldn’t be seen live in the United States, the move to delay the broadcast and run it during prime-time paid dividends. Some 34 million viewers tuned in, up about 35 percent since the last summer games.

Indeed, helped by the splashy opening ceremony and the star power of swimmer Michael Phelps, NBC is setting the stage for what could be record Olympic viewership in America.  Over the first two days of its coverage, NBC has attracted a record 114 million total viewers - 4 million more than Atlanta in 1996 and nearly 20 million more than Athens in 2004.

Those numbers suggest that Web coverage hasn’t taken away from NBC’s TV audience.

As the Wall Street Journal writes:

In the first two days of the games, 90% of viewers watched the Games on TV alone, with nearly 10% watching on TV and online, according to Alan Wurtzel, NBC’s president of research. Only 0.2% watched on the Internet alone, Mr. Wurtzel said.

“The streaming will not diminish the ratings,” said Neal Pilson, a sports-media consultant who advised the International Olympic Committee in negotiations for broadcast rights. “It encourages viewers and provides them with information. There will be no dilution or fragmentation of the national audience.”

The results so far are likely a big relief for NBC, which, as MarketWatch points out, is hoping for a spillover effect from the Olympics:

The Beijing Games will have far-reaching benefits, NBC fervently hopes. The network believes that the widely watched and discussed Games will serve as the ideal lead-in for NBC’s fall prime-time line-up. In addition, Walt Disney’s ABC morning and evening news programs have been nipping at the heels of NBC’s pace-setting “Today” and “Nightly News” shows.

Keep an eye on: 

• WPP says that German market researcher GfK was misleading the market about its intentions to acquire British rival Taylor Nelson Sofres (Reuters)
• Internet conglomerate IAC/InterActiveCorp is moving ahead with plans for splitting up the company, saying spin-offs of its divisions would occur on August 21 (Reuters)
• A major shareholder says cable television operator Cablevision Systems Corp should sell one of its units to raise cash for an aggressive stock buyback rather than break up the whole business (Reuters)

(Photo: Reuters)

NBC Universal has officially locked up more than $1 billion in advertising sales for the Olympics — and says it has more to sell as the games begin on Friday.

The media company majority-owned by General Electric has said all along that it was aiming for sales in excess of $1 billion, and has trumpeted the 3,600 hours of coverage it is running across the NBC network, cable channels, and online sites.

By some estimates, 30-second TV spots have been going for around $750,000, showing that live events are commanding top dollar from advertisers because they represent one of the few programming choices that consistently draw mass audiences. Moreover, viewers tend to watch such broadcasts in real time, rather than on digital video recording devices that allow viewers to skip through commercials.

Oh yeah, presidential candidates John McCain and Barack Obama have bought spots, too, undoubtedly for the same reasons.

That’s all very good news for NBC Universal, which can take the first victory lap of the games.

But there is more to consider looking out over the next couple of weeks. Namely, are the ratings going to justify all this spending? After all, since the last summer Olympics, media choices have only expanded. The same movement to online that NBC is trying to take advantage of, with its streaming web video, is the very thing that could hurt its ratings.

What about the potential for violence? Protests? Marketers have largely stuck to the argument that the Olympics are a showcase for athletes and they aren’t concerned about the politics — but are any of them going to be all that happy if commercials end up running against a backdrop of violence?

We’ll see how this plays out.

(Photo: Reuters)

The big three networks — and their big three evening news anchors — are all over Barack Obama’s trip to the Middle East. Extensive coverage is planned, interviews will be touted, and ABC, NBC and CBS are sure to document his every more.

So is this attention on his trip just more evidence that the media plays favorites with Obama, as some have argued? (Who can forget the SNL skit?)

One evening news anchor, CBS’ Katie Couric,  made her feelings on the subject quite clear in a talk with TV critics. She believes there are “a number of really critical questions” Obama needs to answer about foreign policy.

“It’s not as if it’s going to be,  you know, ‘How do you like the weather in Jordan, Senator?’”

Here’s more on her take:

I think we’ve made a very conscious effort to be fair about how much attention we pay to each campaign and in the primary process as well.  I know there’s been a lot of discussion about Barack Obama’s upcoming trip and how much media attention it will receive, but I think editorially if you look at the fact that there have been questions about his foreign policy expertise and about his national security experience, prompted largely, quite 
frankly, by his Republican critics, and the fact that Iraq remains front and center in terms of how the United States may or may not extricate itself from that theater, then this is a really important trip newswise and editorially in terms of really being able to pin down Barack Obama on his foreign policy vision, if you will.

So much for the weather question.

 (Photo: Reuters)

So Tribune Co is cutting jobs at The Sun in Baltimore and Hartford Courant.

Not to sound callous, but by this point should anyone be surprised by news that a publisher is getting rid of jobs? After all, this is shaping up to be one of the worst years in memory for the newspaper business.

The upshot: The Sun will lose 100 jobs, 60 of them in the newsroom, and the Courant will cut about 60 jobs. (Don’t forget, Tribune is also cutting jobs at the Los Angeles Times and Chicago Tribune)

But it’s not just Tribune. It seems everyone is cutting jobs as advertising revenue plunges thanks to the one-two combination of a weak economy and competition from the Internet for marketing dollars.

Here’s what the union had to say about Tribune’s cuts:

“Baltimore Sun employees are being punished for Tribune’s mismanagement,” Cet Parks, chief negotiator for the Washington-Baltimore Newspaper Guild, said in a statement. “Tribune’s answer to solving declining circulation and readership is to slash employees from the payroll and cut the news hole, salaries and benefits.”

Perhaps that is their answer — but is there a better one out there? So far, nobody seems to have found one.

Keep an eye on:

• WPP Group chief Sir Martin Sorrell is warning that Google is trying to do an end-run around ad agencies. But French rival Publicis is keen to partner with the search giant - and just about anyone else in the online realm (NY Post)
• Video games are known to improve hand-eye coordination but can they help someone quit smoking or lose weight? (Reuters)
• NBC has settled a lawsuit filed by the family of a man who killed himself when confronted with cameras for the documentary series “To Catch a Predator” (NY Times)
• It costs less to run run ads during “The Office” on Hulu than NBC.com. But keep in mind you can’t buy individual shows on Hulu, just demographics across a number of shows (Silicon Alley Insider)

(Reuters photo of Tribune Tower)

It’s one of the big weeks for advertising (well, in terms of parties and sunshine), so we couldn’t pass up the opportunity to check in on Cannes. More than 12,000 advertising types have gathered in the South of France to toast the industry — and perhaps even collect an award.

This is an interesting year for Cannes, where a lot of the chatter at parties and meetings will likely be about either the recession or the rise of online advertising, Reuters notes.

The festival, in its 55th year, awards excellence with the so-called Lions trophies and hosts seminars and workshops. In a sign of how crucial the Internet has become to advertising, the Film Lions awards now includes films for Internet and mobiles.

The $40 billion online advertising market remains a bright spot in a global industry facing dire times with soaring oil prices and an economic slowdown denting clients’ budgets.

Even though Cannes gives a nod to new media these days, AdWeek writes that the event is nonetheless struggling to keep up with the times. Like the industry itself, Cannes is ”an old institution struggling to reinvent itself in a new-media environment.” 

In many ways, Cannes is a perfect reflection of the ad industry. The city itself is glamorous and beautiful, yet downright gauche and a little scruffy at times. The week of seemingly non-stop events and parties is inspiring and fun, while at the same time depressing in its ephemeral hedonism.

As for economic worries, well, ad executives won’t let those stop them from having some fun, AdAge tells us.   

Skyrocketing gas prices, credit crises, procurement officers: none of these can stop the ad-world extravaganza that is Cannes. This year’s festival will be the biggest ever, complete with more entries, more delegates (especially more marketers), more agencies planning beach bashes or lavishly catered parties, and an even bigger presence — and yacht — for Microsoft.

The Australian also noted that the hot ticket of the week is no less than its boss, News Corp Chairman Rupert Murdoch and Chief Operating Officer Peter Chernin.

Meanwhile, USA Today points out that the first batch of winners on Monday “illustrate more than ever that agencies are crossing into each other’s areas of expertise as mediums continue to converge.”

The top direct advertising award went to JWT India for a print ad in The Times of India. While it was an ad promoting the newspaper, it was also the launching pad for a campaign, which included TV, mobile, video and outdoor, urging people to get involved and “lead India” in honor of the country’s 60th anniversary of independence.

In sales promotion, HBO won the Grand Prix for a multimedia campaign by BBDO, New York.

Keep an eye on: 

• One of Walt Disney’s biggest jobs is uncovering talent that appeals to 8- to 12-year-olds “tweens” so it can keep flowing the pipeline of clean-cut Disney Channel stars (WSJ.com)
• The U.S. newspaper business still has not seen the bottom of a persistent deterioration in advertising revenue, and growing Internet revenue will not compensate for the declines, McClatchy Co Chief Executive Gary Pruitt said after the publisher cut about 10 percent of its work force (Reuters)
• NBC Sports is investing in World Championship Sports Network, a small TV network that broadcasts Olympic sports year-round (The Hollywood Reporter)

(Reuters photo of seafront in Cannes)

What’s all this talk about the struggles of the TV industry?

Sure, ratings were down again last season. Screenwriters walked off the job, and while they eventually settled, the actors may be next to strike. No new shows really caught fire, and that Web thing sure does seem to be stealing advertising dollars. Then there’s $4/gallon gasoline, a housing slump, job losses — which all adds up to a generally lousy economy.

And yet… the upfront market looked pretty strong. Last week, NBC gave an early indication that the market was healthy and moving more quickly than expected as reports surfaced that it had booked deals worth about $1.9 billion, with prices up by mid-single digits to high-single digits on a percentage basis.

Yesterday, word spread that ABC’s prices were up about 9 percent and CBS landed gains of 7 percent to 9 percent. Fox is believed to have done even better.

So what happened? The general consensus is that advertisers are worried about the economy and thus have turned to what they know best — the good old TV.

“In tough times, I think advertisers gravitate to what they know,” Andy Donchin, director of national broadcast for Carat North America, the ad-buying arm for media firm Aegis, told the New York Post. 

Or as one ad buyer told ADWEEK: “When national advertisers looked at their media plans to determine what worked most effectively, the bottom line was that it is television, particularly broadcast television.”

AdAge also points out that advertisers wanted to lock in prices out of fear that rates could be higher in the spot  — or scatter — market come fall.

What’s more, the TV networks “would rather have the money upfront, and they’ll play the scatter game later,” said Ed Atorino, a media analyst with The Benchmark Co., told AdAge.  ”What advertisers are doing is locking in, [but] by taking it out of scatter, they’re leaving a potential hole in the market.”

Keep an eye on:

• A joint venture made up of six of the leading cable companies is expected to announce that it has completed its long search for a chief executive officer, naming former Aegis Group executive David Verklin to the post. (WSJ.com)
•  Screen Actors’ Guild leaders declared war on another actors’ union, increasing the odds of new labor trouble in the entertainment industry. (NY Times)
• Paltalk is releasing a version of its multi-person video chat service on the Web in beta. It is called Paltalk Express and will allow thousands of people to participate in a video chat session at the same time. (TechCrunch)

(Photo: Reuters)

TV strike? What TV strike?

Seems that Fox survived the 14-week writers strike, and arguably thrived if you stack its prime-time ratings up against major broadcast networks. It has  finished the season as the undisputed ratings leader for the first time, thanks to a combination of the Super Bowl and that little talent show known as “American Idol.”

Sure, “American Idol” ended its latest run with year-to-year declines in both overall audience and ratings for viewers aged 18 to 49 – and the show notched some record ratings lows this season. But let’s be honest here, it’s coming off pretty tough comparisons.

Even if the talent show is fading a bit, the network has built a strong supporting cast around “American Idol,” one that includes “House,” “Bones,” and “24,” which will be back next year after the strike kept it off the schedule this season.

Simply put, Fox is dominating right now. As per usual, it winds up the season as the most popular network with young adults, but now, for the first time in its two-decade history, it also wears the crown of the most-watched network in prime-time. CBS had long owned that title.

Not that Fox is free and clear. In a year when the five largest English-language broadcasters — ABC, CBS, NBC, Fox and the CW — ended the season down 10 percent collectively among young-adult viewers and 7 percent in overall audience, everybody in the industry is worried. Fox is just a bit less worried.

(Reuters)

 Keep an eye on:

• Yahoo has nominated nine of its 10 existing directors for reelection to the company’s board.

• Why hasn’t online online video advertising taken off as quickly as many expected? Executives attending the Reuters Global Technology, Media and Telecoms Summit this week cite inexperienced creative and sales staff and fear of the unknown among the roadblocks for online video advertising (Reuters)
• Steven Spielberg’s fourth “Indiana Jones” installment is one of the most highly anticipated films of the year – one that many in Hollywood hope will revive a sluggish box office (Reuters)
• The leading contenders to buy the Weather Channel in an auction are Time Warner and a partnership between General Electric Co’s NBC Universal and Blackstone Group LP, people familiar with the auction tell The Wall Street Journal.

(Photo: Reuters)

For years we have interviewed media analyst/newsletter editor/industry maven Jack Myers about the television upfronts. We have tried to track him down at upfront parties, cocktail napkin in hand, to get his initial reaction on the new shows trotted out by the networks while he talks to the most senior executives. We have written up his forecasts and predictions on how many billions of advertising dollars the nets will say they have booked.

And now, in what may be the most definitive sign that more than 50 years of upfront fanfare has come to an end, Myers says he will no longer prognosticate on their outcome, according to an e-mail newsletter sent round today:

This year, I am not offering predictions nor will I report after-the-fact on network Upfront revenues. The Upfront is no longer a representative indicator of network performance and the information released by the networks is, at best, questionable. If a network ever actually reports poor performance in the Upfront, then we can be assured it was a disaster.

The change of heart makes sense given the total overhaul of the television industry. Networks are selling more and more advertising for shows not only when they appear on air, but on the Internet as well. A television writers’ strike over the winter that brought pilot production to a standstill means they have very few shows to preview to advertisers this year. The introduction of a new ratings system to account for DVR use has wreaked havoc on the numbers used to set advertising rates.

And of course, there’s the economy.

But we are definitely sad to hear this from Jack, whose predictions were so on target:

My own performance has generally been on-the-money, although last year I believed the market would be considerably softer than it, in fact, turned out to be.

Aside from the specific revenue forecasts, Myers does give general conclusions about the state of upfront negotiations. Based on his talks with industry leaders, he sees a reasonably quick haggling season that should end before the July 4 holiday weekend. He expects the networks to boost their CPM pricing and incremental revenue from their new digital distribution models.

(Photo: Reuters / ABC’s “Desperate Housewives” at the more festive 2007 upfronts)