What’s that? Jay Leno is moving to prime-time? You don’t say!

Frankly, it’s hard to remember the last time there was such hubbub about a TV show. It was, after all, the cover story in Time magazine. Not to be outdone, The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, Reuters, AP, and probably every local news outlet between New York and Hollywood had a story about the talk show host — more often than not raising the question of whether he’s going to save network TV.

(You’ve got to give it to the public-relations machine on this one. They really worked the story. Of course, their spinning was augmented by a huge marketing effort. Stuart Elliott of the New York Times today estimated that NBC put out more than $10 million in promoting the show).

But there is more to the fall TV season than Jay Leno. The media buyers and planners over at  RPA offer a useful road map to the season in a recent report.

Their take on the fall season is fairly upbeat (maybe network TV doesn’t really need Leno to save it).

“For the first time in two years, network fortunes will not be held hostage to the industry’s labor problems, but will be determined, as they used to be, by content quality and scheduling… Based on what we’ve seen, the overall quality of that content looks better than it has in the past two seasons,” the report says.

Here, according to RPA, are some things to keep in mind heading into the season:

• The five broadcast networks will debut 21 shows, accounting for 22 percent of scheduling hours.

• Dramas and dramedies (a mix of comedy and drama) will increase from 43 percent to 48 percent of the schedule’s hours. Comedies will rise from 10 percent to 17 percent.

• Not a single new fall show is a foreign co-production (which had been looking like a trend until now).

• Medicine is hot, with three hospital dramas debuting this fall and a fourth starting midseason (”Trauma,” “Mercy”, “Three Rivers,” and “Miami Trauma”).

• Paranormal is big, too. Four new shows built around that theme will land this fall (”V,” “Eastwick,” “Flash Forward,” and “Vampire Diaries”).

Oh, and Jay Leno is moving to prime-time.

Bankrupt publisher and TV broadcaster Tribune Co filed for bankruptcy last December, and it’s looking increasingly like next December might be the first time we see what the new company will look like. Here is what the company’s Chicago Tribune newspaper reported Tuesday morning:

The parent company of the Chicago Tribune is scheduled to deliver a plan Aug. 4 but wants to extend that deadline to Nov. 30.

Citing the complex nature of the case, Tribune said in a filing it needs more time to build consensus around a plan. It also said the outcome of the pending sale of the Chicago Cubs could have a “material impact” on the plan.

A spokesman called the request “routine.”

This would be the second time that Tribune gets an extension, if the bankruptcy court judge approves it. Our question for you: Will it be the last? We’re talking about $13 billion in debt, not exactly a foreclosed house. What do you think?

Keep an eye on

• Media companies! They’re not dead! If you don’t believe us, read it here too. (Dow Jones Newswires)
• Freshly departed NBC executive Ben Silverman discovers he really is a rogue outsider after all — and everyone knows it. (The Hollywood Reporter)
• Here is why most people who say they can arrange a viral marketing campaign usually can’t. (The Wall Street Journal)

A year ago, the big story around Emmy nominations was the acclaim showered on cable programs like “Mad Men” and “Damages.” A quick glance at today’s nominations indicates little has changed.

Just look at the best drama category, where Fox’s “House” and ABC’s “Lost” will face stiff competition from cable’s “Big Love” (HBO), “Mad Men” (AMC), “Damages” (FX), and “Breaking Bad” (AMC).

While the Emmy awards aren’t everything — ratings are still the holy grail — they certainly don’t hurt. Particularly when it comes to cable networks, which have built a reputation for developing more sophisticated, bolder programs than the broadcast counterparts.

While ABC, NBC, CBS and Fox are under heavy pressure from advertisers (and their corporate parents) to show immediate results, the cable networks can take more care with their programs. After all, they draw some revenue from carriage deals and subscriptions, which buys shows like “Breaking Bad” some time to develop.

That seems to be paying dividends — and not only when it comes to awards. While broadcast TV advertising rates are still at a sizable premium to cable, most advertising executives say the gap is shrinking. Couple that with carriage fees and a generally lower cost structure and you see why TV executives like NBC Universal’s Jeff Zucker spend so much time talking up their cable assets.

Keep an eye on:

• Google will be under the spotlight when it reports second quarter earnings later today. How much of a toll has the downturn in advertising and the competition from Microsoft taken on the web leader? (Reuters)

• Speaking of Microsoft, its share of the U.S. market increased in June as it rolled out Bing (Reuters). And its not just focussed on search and Google — the company plans to open some retail stores “right next door” to those of Apple Inc. (Reuters)

• Don’t get too comfortable watching your favorite TV show on the web with only a few commercials. Media companies are pressing ahead with plans to put more ads in web videos. (Wall Street Journal)

Here are some of the day’s top stories in the media industry:

TV Networks Fight Drug-Ad Measure (WSJ)
“Advertising costs are deductible to any company as a business expense. The plan being considered by Rep. Rangel’s Ways and Means committee would eliminate the deduction with respect to prescription drug advertising,” writes Martin Vaughan.

Big media seek 21st century business models (Reuters)
“Media moguls at this week’s Sun Valley conference have spent as much time discussing how to reconfigure business models disrupted by the Web as they have worrying about the weak economy,” reports Yinka Adegoke.

Zucker Says Marketplace Has Reached Bottom (B&C)
Ben Grossman writes: “NBC Universal chief Jeff Zucker said Thursday that while the overall marketplace is still challenged, he thinks it may have bottomed out. ‘It’s still quite uncertain and we don’t really see the full recovery we are all hoping for,’ he said.  ’It’s still tough out there, but I think we have seen a bottom.’”

The Financial Times and New York Times make further syndication deals (Editors Weblog)
“Both the Financial Times and the New York Times have announced their international syndications will include additional countries. The FT has confirmed content sharing arrangements with publications based in Turkey, France, and South Korea,” writes Christie Silk.

NBC Reveals Displeasure as U.S.O.C. Unveils Plan (NYT)
Richard Sandomir writes: “The head of NBC Sports said Thursday that he broke off talks in April about combining the Olympic channel that it partly owns with the one being planned by the United States Olympic Committee.”

AP Works Toward Universal Online News Format (Mediapost)
Gavin O’Malley writes: “The Associated Press, along with fellow non-profit The Media Standards Trust, on Friday unveiled a digital news “microformat” to effectively encapsulate the content and key meta-data of every news story online.”

In other news:

• Detroit Free Press exempt from latest round of Gannett layoffs (Crain’s)
• AOL: More Layoffs Inevitable (Business Insider)

Here are some of the day’s stories on the media industry:

‘Tonight Show’ Audience a Decade Younger (NYT)
“In Mr. O’Brien’s first month as host, the median age of “Tonight Show” viewers has fallen by a decade — to 45 from 55, a startling shift in such a short time. This audience composition means advertisers can now address almost exclusively young viewers on “Tonight,” and NBC is already contemplating a shift in how it sells the show,” writes Bill Carter.

Springer’s daily Welt dreams of going international - again (Reuters)

“German publisher Axel Springer plans to launch an international weekly edition of its flagship daily, Die Welt, in a 48-page tabloid format starting February 2010. Springer is still mulling distribution options but the paper will likely be available from airlines,” writes Nicola Leske.

Just the Messenger: Mediaite.com Focuses on Celebrity of Journalism (WP)
On the newly launched website, Howard Kurtz writes: “Mediaite paints with a colorful palette, even if its hues will appeal mainly to journalists and those who obsess over them. By hiring bloggers who worked for Mediabistro and the Huffington Post, Abrams has put together a sassy critique of media missteps and foibles, an overall take not driven mainly by ideology.”

Cubs sale finalized for TribCo (Crain’s)
“Tribune Co. has finalized a deal to sell the Chicago Cubs to a bidding group led by bond salesman Thomas Ricketts. Documents describing the fully financed deal were sent to Major League Baseball over the weekend, a source familiar with the negotiations said Monday. The value of the deal is between $850 million and $900 million, the source said.”

Food Network magazine is media’s next wave (MarketWatch)
“Hearst executives are very pleased with the magazine’s progress. The company started out by printing 300,000 copies last fall. Hearst now projects the publication’s rate base, the circulation figure that publishers promise to advertisers, will climb to 900,000 later this year and to 1.1 million in 2010,” writes Jon Friedman.

Hulu plans September bow in U.K. (Variety)
Steve Clarke writes: “Hulu, co-owned by News Corp., NBC Universal and Providence Equity Partners, is believed to be offering broadcasters equity stakes in the U.K. service plus a share of online advertising revenues. (Disney has a deal pending to become a co-owner.)”

In other news:

• Two new blogs offer daily tips for business journalists (BusinessJournalism.org)

• Behind the launch of the Rocky Mountain Independent (Westword)

• Talking Point$ Memo (CJR.org)

Starting today Disney content will go live on Hulu, consumating a deal that was struck earlier this year to join the two-year venture with NBC Universal, News Corp and Providence Equity Partners.

The first few shows include popular fare from ABC such as Grey’s Anatomy,  Desperate Housewives and Ugly Betty. This means Hulu is going from strength to strength in locking down its leadership as the place for watching TV on the Web.

Part of the attraction of Hulu is that it is free for U.S. residents, since most of the content can be watched for free over the air in the U.S. But we wouldn’t be surprised if Hulu’s owners added a paid service as part of the TV Everywhere initiative players like Time Warner have been promoting. Such a ‘paid-for’ service would actually be free if the customer is already a paying cable/satellite TV subscriber.

Hulu is also making strides to launch in the UK soon.

In the meantime, if you’re stuck at your desk tomorrow at 9.30am PST (12.30pm EST) you can watch the Michael Jackson service live from the Staples Center in Los Angeles.  The broadcast is being provided to Hulu by half-sister network Fox News. After the live-stream, Hulu will also offer on-demand access of the entire memorial service.

Who says lightning never strikes twice? Conan O’Brien, famous for finding humor in the mundane, is set to revisit Intel Corp on Thursday’s “The Tonight Show” — two years after the talk-show host devised a memorable 2007 skit spoofing the Silicon Valley chipmaker.

An Intel spokeswoman declined to talk about the details but said the upcoming segment was part of a broader Intel sponsorship of O’Brien’s new show on NBC. O’Brien took over the Burbank, California-based show from Jay Leno on June 1.

Financial details of the sponsorship weren’t disclosed by Intel, which noted that “this partnership leverages O’Brien’s unique ability to humorously convey to his viewers Intel’s unique personality, cutting-edge technology and futuristic innovations.”

Not to mention all the bunny-suited engineers and office workers toiling anonymously in a sea of cubicles at Intel’s Santa Clara, California headquarters.

When O’Brien last visited Intel as host of NBC’s New York-based “Late Night with Conan O’Brien,” he joined a group of second-graders on a field trip at the site and asked them, “Can you say ‘cubicle’? Can you say ‘confined space’? Can you say ‘lifeless environment?’”

So how low can it go? One percent? Three percent? Five percent? Let’s try a decline of 6.9 percent — since that’s the latest forecast for global advertising spending from ZenithOptimedia.

To the surprise of few, the agency, part of French advertising group Publicis, revised downward its outlook for 2009, predicting that only Internet ad spending now looks like it will rise for the year.

“Since we released our last forecasts in December the global ad market has taken a substantial turn for the worse,” said ZenithOptimedia. (Back then, the agency was calling for a flat market).

The trouble is that nobody seems to have accurately pegged the severity of the advertising downturn. Everybody’s forecast has been lowered — often more than once — in trying to keep up with the swan dive in spending. And now experts can’t seem to agree on whether ad spending with be a leading or lagging indicator, or whether the worst has passed or is still to come.

Experts can hardly be blamed for getting it wrong. After all, as ZenithOptimedia puts it, the business has seen “unprecedented economic problems.”

But the size of the revisions should send chills up the spine of media-watchers, who are desperate for some clarity. Here’s what ZenithOptimedia offered up on Tuesday:

We are currently in the middle of a period of steep deterioration in ad expenditure. The downturn began in Q3 2008, accelerated in Q4, and Q1 2009 was at least as tough as the preceding quarter. As we enter Q2, there is limited long-term visibility in the market as most advertisers wait until the last moment to confirm their spending commitments. Many are treating advertising as a discretionary expense, and one they find convenient to cut. Ad expenditure correlates strongly with corporate profits, and the ad market is unlikely to start its recovery until profits start to pick up again.

The current barriers to recovery include lack of trust in the credit markets, and low confidence in prospects for short-term growth. If governments manage to tackle the bad debt poisoning the credit markets, and if their stimulus programmes kick-start economic growth, then advertisers should start to regain their confidence. This will take time, and occur at different speeds in different markets. At this point we forecast 1.5% growth in global ad expenditure in 2010 followed by 4.5% growth in 2011, but these forecasts will be revised in the light of new information

Keep an eye on:

• PepsiCo, taking umbrage over a nationwide advertising campaign accusing its Gatorade energy drink of missing crucial electrolytes, sued Coca-Cola Co for false advertising and taking scientific liberties (Reuters)

• NBC’s Boston affiliate has reversed course and decided to carry the network’s new Jay Leno primetime talk show after all (The Hollywood Reporter)

• Amazon, in response to angry online commentary, said that “an embarrassing and ham-fisted cataloging error” had caused thousands of books on its site to lose their sales rankings and become harder to find in searches (The New York Times)

(Photo: Reuters)

Adweek is out today with its annual ad agency report cards — and it looks like nobody took home an “A” for 2008. The trade publication covers 25 companies, picked based on size and influence. Agencies are judged on creative performance, management and revenue growth profitability (these final two factors were a challenge in 2008 for obvious reasons).

Top marks for 2008 (in this case “B+”) went to Crispin Porter + Bogusky; Goodby, Silverstein & Partners; The Martin Agency; Publicis USA; and Wieden + Kennedy.

Ogilvy and Draft FCB were handed “C-” grades. Here’s what Adweek said, in part, about Draft FCB (which, it should be noted, rang up a bit of good news last week in landing the Miller Lite account).

Qwest spot communicates that nothing is as bad as waiting for the cable guy with news style interview of stranded airline passengers. Oddball yet riveting yodeling theme song and uber-violent quick-cut imagery combine in hit viral spot for EA’s Mercenaries title. Coors Light effort integrating real football coach banter with antics of four guys trying to open a cooler provides a mild diversion. Kraft commercial with American and Asian girls forging a bond as they watch each other dunk Oreos in different trains at a railroad station is too cute for its own good. Out-of-home effort with giant Oreo riding a mall elevator into a huge vat of milk was, quite literally, a slam dunk. Texting campaigns efficiently link Coors to events like the NFL draft and Nascar.

For the full, Adweek report cards,  click here.

Keep an eye on:

• The chief executives of Microsoft and Yahoo met last week to discuss potential partnerships between the companies’ Internet search and advertising operations (WSJ.com)

• Sixteen-year-old actress Miley Cyrus became one of the biggest stars in Hollywood on Sunday as her first nonconcert movie topped the North American box office, earning twice as much as Disney had forecast (Reuters)

• A pair of series premieres Thursday night gave NBC hope for an eleventh-hour comeback this season (The Hollywood Reporter)

(Photo: Reuters)

CBS’s stock may be in the tank (now under $4 a share),  but Chief Executive Les Moonves is still pretty darn optimistic. That may be because his network — home to the “CSI” franchise, “Survivor,” and “The Mentalist” — is the only one of the big four that’s been pulling in more prime-time viewers. For months it has been crushing ABC, NBC, and Fox in the ratings game.

What’s the payoff? CBS won’t have to make wholesale changes to its 2009-10 schedule and should be able to hang on to more advertising dollars than its rivals,  Moonves told an audience at the Deutsche bank Deutsche Bank Annual Media & Telecommunications Conference.

Moonves figures CBS will need to shoot six fewer pilots than it did a year ago, and bring only 2 or 3 new shows to air next season. He also says that with known hits — like “The Mentalist” — and few question marks about its schedule the network should fare well in this spring’s upfront market.

What’s more, if advertisers get too skittish, CBS will simply hold back inventory during negotiations, Moonves said. “”We’ve never been afraid to play the scatter game,” he said. “My guess is there will be a little less volume going into the upfront.”

Of course, CBS has also been burned by holding back inventory and betting on stronger prices later in the year for the scatter, or spot, market. Remember 2001’s upfront? CBS cut its inventory, bet on the scatter market, and was hurt when advertising fell apart that fall after the attacks of Sept 11.

Still, Moonves sounded confident. “We will not reduce our prices,” he declared.

And he wasn’t about to apologize for CBS’s programming choices, which some say are too vanilla. “Do we program for Middle America? Yeah.  We’ve heard for years that we have too many procedurals. But we’ll keep doing them until America tells us to stop doing them. All I know is we keep getting base hits. Our on base percentage is phenomenal.”

Keep an eye on:

• Microsoft Corp is testing a new version of its online search service internally under the name of Kumo.com (Reuters)
• Thomson Reuters Corp will launch a video news service in June for financial professionals who use its terminals, part of a $1 billion plan to appeal to a new generation of customers (Reuters)
• Live Nation posts wider loss on writedown, but sees healthy 2009 ticket sales (Reuters)

(Photo: Reuters)