Over the last few days executives at Goldman Sachs’ Communicopia have talked about a stabilizing — or even improving — advertising market.

It’s not the only time they’ve talked about stabilization. It was the watchword of investors calls as far back as last spring. And it appears they were right. New figures out from TNS Media Intelligence show the advertising market wasn’t any worse in the second quarter than it was in the first.

That’s cold comfort considering the data show that advertising spending in the second quarter sank 13.9 percent from a year ago. For the first six months of 2009, spending is down some 14.3 percent from a year ago, or more than $10 billion in lost TV spots, print ads and radio jingles.

Here’s how TNS research guru Jon Swallen described it in a prepared statement:

While it’s tempting to interpret this as a positive indicator that things aren’t getting worse, the fact remains that the market has been steadily tracking at around 14 percent declines for several consecutive months and this represents billions of lost revenue. Early data from third quarter hint at possible improvements for some media due to easy comparisons against distressed levels of year ago expenditures.

The worst hit category for the first six months was automotive, with spending down 31 percent. Others that fared poorly (to nobody’s surprise) included financial services, down 24 percent; miscellaneous retail, down 18 percent; and travel & tourism, down 15 percent. Housing related advertising, which covers several categories, tumbled 29 percent.

And the prize for the worst media sector over the first six months goes to… radio. Spending on those pesky radio ads fell 24.6 percent, a touch more than newspapers at 24.2 percent.

But hey, at least the market isn’t getting worse.

Here are some of the day’s top stories in the media industry:

Verizon Planning Its Own App Store (Business Insider)
Preethi Dumpala writes: “The main idea: Verizon wants to be the company connecting its customers with apps — not necessarily its handset partners. And it wants to avoid becoming an even dumber pipe. Depending on how it’s set up, this could clash with gadget makers’ plans.”

McGraw-Hill might ‘give away’ Business Week for nominal $1 (FT)
“McGraw-Hill might reap only a nominal $1 by selling Business Week, according to people familiar with the 80-year-old financial magazine’s record of losses. The publisher has appointed Evercore, a boutique investment bank, to sell the title after deciding it was non-core to a group that owns the Standard & Poor’s rating agency and an educational publisher, two people familiar with the decision said,” writes Andrew Edgecliffe-Johnson.

Sinclair says it might consider bankruptcy (Baltimore Sun)
“The Hunt Valley-based owner of television stations, which depends heavily on automotive advertisers for revenue, said it might be obligated to pay $488.5 million of its total outstanding debt within the next 18 months. The company said it had $1.3 billion in total debt outstanding as of March 31,” writes Lorraine Mirabella.

Minority Broadcasters Seek Federal Aid (WSJ)
Fawn Johnson writes: “A group of minority broadcasters asked Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner Monday for financial assistance akin to the aid that has been extended to the financial and auto industries. ”Minority-owned broadcasters are close to becoming an extinct species,” the letter said. “Even in better economic times, minority broadcasters have historically had difficulties accessing the capital markets.”

In other news:

• Earnings Preview: A tough 2Q expected for Gannett (AP)
• New York Times to sell NYC radio station (Reuters)
• CHART OF THE DAY: Users Spent A Billion Hours On Facebook In June (BI)

Taking a break from flogging the latest tired media business model, Morgan Stanley published a short report on Friday entitled, “How Teenagers Consumer Media” by 15-year-old summer intern Matthew Robson that offers a frank discussion of what young digital media consumers are up to.  The FT has highlighted it on its front page, perhaps as an antidote to wall-to-wall coverage of the annual Sun Valley media moguls conference in recent days.

The most memorable moment in the report is its discussion of the irrelevancy of Twitter to teenagers:
Facebook is popular as one can interact with friends on a wide scale.

On the other hand, teenagers do not use twitter. Most have signed up to the service, but then just leave it as they release that they are not going to update it (mostly because texting twitter uses up credit, and they would rather text friends with that credit). In addition, they realise that no one is viewing their profile, so their ‘tweets’ are pointless.

Many of the issues higlighted in the 4-page report are obvious: Teenagers are consuming more media, but not prepared to pay for it. They resent intrusive advertising, while print media and radio are largely irrelevant to them. These observations may be nothing new to anyone who bothers to ask kids what they are up to. As with previous generations, the answers aren’t always what adults hope they are doing. But they have sobering implications for complacent media investors.

On newspapers:

No teenager that I know of regularly reads a newspaper, as most do not have the time and cannot be bothered to read pages and pages of text while they could watch the news summarised on the internet or on TV. The only newspapers that are read are tabloids and freesheets (Metro, London Lite…) mainly because of cost…

On radio:

Most teenagers nowadays are not regular listeners to radio. They may occasionally tune in, but they do not try to listen to a program specifically… With online sites streaming music for free they do not bother, as services such as last.fm do this advert free, and users can choose the songs they want instead of listening to what the radio presenter/DJ chooses.

On (yellow pages) directories:

Teenagers never use real directories (hard copy catalogues such as yellow pages). This is because real directories contain listings for builders and florists… (and) because… they can get the information for free on the internet, simply by typing it into Google

 On digital devices:

What is Hot?
•Anything with a touch screen is desirable.
•Mobile phones with large capacities for music.
•Portable devices that can connect to the internet (iPhones)
•Really big tellies

What Is Not?
•Anything with wires
•Phones with black and white screens
•Clunky ‘brick’ phones
•Devices with less than ten-hour battery life

Elsewhere in the Twitter media echo chamber, The New York Times highlights “Web Site Story,” a video by CollegeHumor.com that dramatizes what might happen if the classic 1950s musical West Side Story had taken place in the era of Facebook and Twitter.

Reuters has an analysis of what Twitter cannot teach the media business.

(Credits: Morgan Stanley Research; Photo: Reuters/Eric Thayer)

In case you hadn’t noticed, this isn’t exactly a great environment for wheeling and dealing. That only compounds the challenge CBS CEO Les Moonves faces in trying to reshape his radio division — it’s not like there was a thriving market for radio station M&A before this whole credit crisis.

But give CBS credit. Seems like they came up with an innovative way to swap a handful of their smaller stations for a couple of  larger stations in markets that CBS wants to be in. They struck the deal with Clear Channel, which needed to get something done to satisfy regulators looking at their buyout by Thomas H. Lee Partners and Bain Capital.  

Here’s what the deal boils down to, courtesy of the press release:

In the trade, Clear Channel will obtain CBS RADIO’s KBKS-FM (Seattle), WQSR-FM (Baltimore), KXJM-FM and KLTH-FM (Portland, Ore.), and KQJK-FM (Sacramento, Calif.). In return, CBS RADIO will acquire two stations in Houston, the country’s 6th-largest radio market, KLOL-FM (Mega 101.1) and KHMX-FM (Mix 96.5).

We’ve heard talk that the current economy and credit situation would prompt companies to take a look at different, innovative sorts of deals. This one was done on a small scale, but perhaps a signal of things to come for the media business?

(Reuters photo of Les Moonves)

Meet News Corp’s latest cool dude: Courtney Holt, president of MySpace Music. They say he’s not only talented, but he’s hip as well — and reports of his arrival were, to say the least, plentiful.

Here is his history, as outlined by MySpace’s press release:

Holt previously served as Executive Vice President of Digital Music for the MTV Networks Music and Logo Group where he oversaw several initiatives for the company’s digital music group, including working with the MTV, VH1 and CMT brands… Prior to joining MTV, Holt was Senior Vice President of New Media, Creative and Strategic Marketing at Interscope Geffen A&M.

It couldn’t hurt that he used MySpace to tout new albums from well-known pop acts such as Weezer, Nine Inch Nails, Beck, Black Eyed Peas, and Audioslave.

CNET’s News.com in October reported that Holt was coming from a little more upheaval at Viacom than might have been comfortable:

Impending layoffs at the media conglomerate, perhaps staged in phases to avoid publicity or shock, have been well documented. And a source within Viacom said that there has been talk of some “reorganization” within Holt’s digital-media division.

MySpace co-founder Chris DeWolfe told the Los Angeles Times that Holt brought a blend of knowledge about where music is going as well as the connection to bands that large amounts of people want to hear: “He was the first person that we really found that had the music experience, both from a marketing perspective and from a music programming perspective, the technical knowledge and the relationships with all the major labels as well as independent labels.”

DeWolfe also liked the cut of Holt’s jib, apparently: “If you look at Courtney, from the clothes he wears to the glasses that he may wear, he’s got a very eclectic style to him… A very unique style.”

It almost feels like a Pet Shop Boys song: I’ve got the brains, you’ve got the looks, let’s make lots of money!

Keep an eye on

• Associated Press union members say contract talks show that the news outlet is trying to justify the old phrase, “You can’t spell cheap without AP.” (Editor & Publisher)
• Jeff Jarvis, the new media guru, gets the Tolstoy treatment in this lengthy story. Conclusion? The medicine he gives old media executives lists nausea as one of its side effects. (New York Observer)
• Newspapers aren’t the only ones trying to claw their way out of the pit of despair. Read about radio, the other revenue-challenged medium. (The New York Times)

(Courtney Holt photo: Courtesy of MySpace)

NBC is once again stuck in last place in prime-time ratings; its much-hyped Olympic coverage is over, so are the elections; advertising across media is under pressure; and dishing out $67 to hang at the Universal Studios theme park probably isn’t as appealing when you could soon lose your job, house, car, etc.

Still, NBC Universal would seem more secure within parent General Electric than it has been for some time. Indeed, most of the talk about a possible sale has faded away. Here’s what analysts told us for a recent article.

“I’ve struggled with it forever, in terms of why GE has it, especially now in a situation like this where ad revenues are down,” says Mike Gandrud, senior analyst at Optique Capital Management. 
“I’d love to see them do something with it … Do I expect it to happen? No.”

“Eventually, I believe, they want out and have decided it doesn’t represent the kind of upside growth of some alternatives,” says Steve Ridge, president of media strategy at research firm Frank N. Magid Associates. ”For now, I think they missed the window.”

Why not sell? Get out of media at a time when media is under heavy pressure? A number of reasons, ranging from NBCU’s recent strong performance to its ability to generate cash. Oh, and of course, it’s next to impossible to sell anything these days at a reasonable price.

Daniel Holland, an analyst at Morningstar,  says, “The last time you want to sell something is when the price you’re going to get is below what it would generally command.”

He points to the trouble GE is having getting rid of the appliances division.  ”That business may not be the greatest business in GE’s portfolio but it’s a really solid business. If you’re trying to get into North America and you’re an appliance manufacturer, that’s an incredible brand to have. And so when you see how difficult it’s been for GE to get rid of something as attractive as that” you can imagine how hard it might be to get a decent price for NBC.

Keep an eye on:

• Radio companies, facing heavy debt and a depressed advertising market, are facing huge challenges (WSJ.com)
• Shari Redstone has resigned as chairwoman of Midway Games to concentrate on the troubled National Amusements (WSJ.com)
• YouTube is set to announce a deal to show some full-length television shows and films from MGM (NYTimes.com)

(Photo: Reuters)