So who’s winning the pay-TV so far this year? With days to go until two of the biggest cable operators (Time Warner Cable on Wednesday and Comcast on Thursday)  report first quarter financial results, Reuters canvassed eight Wall Street analysts for their estimates of subscriber net additions during the period.

At first glance it doesn’t look like it will be a good quarter with these analysts forecasting Comcast, Time Warner Cable and Cablevision to lose around 100,000 basic TV subscribers collectively, while satellite TV plays DIRECTV Group and DISH Network will add around 320,000.

Even more worrisome for cable companies?  AT&T and Verizon added around 410,000 new TV subscribers between them during the quarter.

Yet at least one analyst cautions investors  not to read too much into cable’s basic video subscriber losses as this metric is not as important to growth as the addition of other revenue generating units in particular Internet access and phone.

“It would be missing the point to focus on basic video subscriber adds,” says Chris Marangi, an analyst at Gabelli & Co. which holds shares in Comcast, Time Warner Cable, Cablevision as well as the two satellite TV companies.

“Voice services and high speed data subscribers is what drives revenue growth,” says Marangi.

(Photo: Reuters/Glenn Britt (l), Brian Roberts (r))

Two sectors may be getting a new lease on life after the Wall Street Journal reported news that a handful of the top U.S. cable operators are exploring a joint venture with Sprint Nextel and Clearwire to create a national high-speed wireless network to fight off the telcos for subscribers.

Without a big infusion of cash, WiMax technology could be a non-starter in the U.S. So far, Sprint has planned to introduce the service in three markets.

Expanding beyond that may prove a tough sell for Sprint shareholders who had widely criticized its commitment last year to spend $5 billion on WiMax by 2010. Sprint is also struggling to keep its existing customers from leaving.

But with an estimated $3 billion in potential investment from Comcast, Time Warner Cable, Bright House Networks, Google and Intel, Sprint and Clearwire are poised to make life uncomfortable for AT&T, Verizon, DirecTV and EchoStar.

The cable industry has also dabbled in offering wireless services over the past few years, notably with Sprint. But with wireless penetration in the United States at over 80 percent, coming to market with a me-too offering won’t cut it anymore.

Is this the dawn of a new broadband arms race?

(WSJ)

Keep an eye on:

• Banks to Clear Channel: No way. (Reuters)
• Motorola to spin off handset division. (Reuters)
• Take-Two to Electronic Arts: Still NO. (Reuters)
• Fewer reporters on the U.S. presidential campaign trail? Blame the blood-letting in the newspaper industry. (NYT)

(Photo: Reuters)