One day soon you’ll be able to watch your TV everywhere: online, on-the-go, your phones, just about everywhere and Time Warner chief Jeff Bewkes wants you to know about it and believe it.

Bewkes, perhaps relieved to talk about something other than how best to get rid of AOL , took the opportunity on Time Warner’s first quarter earnings call to share more of his vision for how he plans to free your favorite TV shows from the shackles of the cathode ray tube box (yes, some of us still own those).

The way Bewkes sees it if you’re already subscribing to a TV channel at home, you should be able to watch it for free on broadband from any provider, wherever and whenever you want.

As he told analysts on Wednesday:

Over 90% of U.S. households already paying for television, programmers will be able to give consumers even more for their money. There’s a tremendous level of interest in TV Everywhere across the industry, and we’re working with several distributors on a trial slated for the second half this year.

But Bewkes was light on the details, such as how you overcome the technical challenge of “authenticating” subscribers’ access to programming when they might take video from one company; Internet from another and wireless connection from a third provider. Bewkes told analysts:

It seems pretty simple from the network’s point of view, it’s also pretty clear any channel network that’s got dual revenue streams has clearly got a benefit in making that channel and brand loyalty move across any platform or device because if I just speak for our company, it’s good for TNT or HBO that if you’ve got it in your home you can watch it out of your home and on (video on demand), and that we can then maintain the subscription payment you’re already making and the ad sales cross platform ability that’s in the media.

What seems to be simple is the principle, say most analysts, but execution may be another thing. Sanford Bernstein Michael Nathanson thinks Bewkes is probably looking at the bigger picture. Sometimes saying the right things can almost be as important as execution, said Nathanson.

I think what Time Warner is talking about in trying to examine what these digital models are and trying to ensure there is no value destruction is the right thing. Even if it doesn’t amount to anything I still think there’s value in trying to educate the market and some of its competitors about they should approach it.

(Photo: Reuters)

Facebook has been mapping swine flu discussions among its members for the past few days using its Lexicon application, and it’s pretty cool to see how the conversation on Wall posts shot up over the weekend as more and more cases of the disease came to light in the United States.

Lexicon, for those who don’t have to follow Facebook’s every move, is a tool the social networking site uses to follow trends on words and phrases that are being used on “Walls,” the open space on each member’s profile where friends can post comments. Kind of like how you can take the pulse of topics trending up or down in Twitter search.

The chart below, courtesy of Facebook, shows how there were no mentions of the term “swine flu” before the evening of April 23 on any of its 200 million members’ walls, but people start discussing it quite a bit over the next two days, causing a sharp upward spike.

Facebook also mapped the swine flu discussions geographically, showing the percentage of Facebook users mentioning the term on Wall posts in each U.S. state, as well as the U.K. and Canada.

And guess where in the United States swine flu talk was the highest?

Texas, followed by California — two states that share a border with Mexico, where as many as 159 people have died of swine flu. Facebook members in New York, and border states like Vermont, Maine and Washington, were also talking swine flu more than in the interiors of the country. Here’s the map, also courtesy Facebook:

Keep an eye on:

• Today’s Twitters are often tomorrow’s quitters, according to data that questions the long-term success of the latest social networking sensation. (Reuters)
• Time Warner posted a stronger-than-expected quarterly profit (Reuters)
• Barry Diller’s IAC/InterActiveCorp posted a quarterly loss, and bought UrbanSpoon.

(Photo: Facebook)

Just as we’re getting over the buzz and acclaim for the new Kindle e-reader, Amazon comes right back at us. This time, it is selling    e-books for the iPhone and iPod — that’s right — through a Kindle application that can be downloaded from Apple’s App Store.

Here’s how the Wall Street Journal describes it: “Amazon’s software application, which can be downloaded free of charge, allows iPhone and iPod Touch users to read books or periodicals purchased on the Web or through their dedicated Kindle device, usually for $9.99. Using a service that Amazon calls whispersync, the program keeps track of a readers’ latest page in any given book across both a Kindle and iPhone.”

Amazon has competition, of course, from Google as well as other e-book sellers. Still, give credit to Amazon for creating big hype for its Kindle (which is still a relatively small market, regardless of all the press it gets).

“Will this put Kindle device sales at risk?” asks TechCrunch? “Not likely. The Kindle is a fairly niche product - not that reading is a niche activity (though it’s probably a bit less common than it should be), but the ideas of eBooks/e-Ink/etc are still fairly foreign to most (though Oprah’s mention definitely didn’t hurt). This lets Amazon push more copies of e-products they’ve already got licenses for, all the while coaxing the stubborn folks into the idea of reading books on an electronic screen without requiring them to drop $360 bucks on a dedicated device.”

Or as the New York Times puts it, “The move comes a week after Amazon started shipping the updated version of its Kindle reading device. It signals that the company may be more interested in becoming the pre-eminent retailer of e-books than in being the top manufacturer of reading devices.”

We haven’t had the chance yet to see the application, but paidContent’s Staci Kramer posted these thoughts today: “The text is clear but you can’t use multi-touch to zoom; instead, just as on the Kindle device, you select from a series of type sizes and it changes. I can go back to the cover and table of contents of that book; if I pick, “furthest point read” it pinpoints my location and tells me which device I was using and what time and date it was when I last dipped in. What I can’t do is access the things I might most want to read in short bursts: my subscriptions to newspapers, magazines and blogs—all limited to one Kindle. And so far, no Speech-to-Text so at least Roy Blount, Jr. should be happy.”

Keep an eye on:

• Havas, the world’s sixth-largest advertising group, delivered sharply higher profits, beating forecasts, and its chairman said he was thinking about the possibility of merging with rival Aegis (Reuters)
• Turner International, a unit of Time Warner Inc, will launch a new entertainment channel in India along with Warner Bros, but sees lower revenue growth in its top Asian market due to a slowing economy (Reuters)
• The Walt Disney Co is considering creating a subscription-based online movie and TV rental service from the company’s vast video library (Reuters)
• Hollywood reacts to Blockbuster’s troubles with a yawn (Reuters)

(Photo: Reuters)

Hey, Madonna meet Miley Cyrus. Jay-Z, these are the Eagles. You all could be one big happy family. Sort of like the Brady Bunch.  Or the Partridge family!

Only, however, if merger talks talks between Ticketmaster Entertainment and Live Nation result in a deal — and if that deal isn’t blocked by regulators worried about too few power players in the ticket  

Here’s what we reported: A source briefed on the matter told Reuters that talks are at an advanced stage, but could still fall apart over issues such as management control.

 Another hurdle would be competition issues because such a merger would concentrate power in the music industry under one roof.

 One music label source said the deal will “face major antitrust issues from managers, record companies, ticketing companies and concert promoters to name a few — not to mention the Obama administration will be very tough on this stuff.”

The Wall Street Journal, which broke the story, also brought up the anti-trust question: Sticking points remain to any deal. Because a merger would concentrate so much power in the music industry under one company, it would require review by antitrust authorities.

The newspaper provides the following details: The combined company would be called Live Nation Ticketmaster; boards of both companies have yet to approve the all-stock merger; it is being described as a merger of equals, but terms have yet to be worked out; it is unclear which company is acquiring the other; it is unknown what titles would be taken by Ticketmaster chief Irving Azoff and Live Nation Chief Michael Rapino.

Stay tuned.

Keep an eye on:

• Time Warner forecast a flat 2009 profit after posting quarterly results below Wall Street forecasts as it grapples with the impact of a worsening recession (Reuters)
• Walt Disney reported a sharply lower-than-expected quarterly profit as the global downturn hurt its TV advertising, DVD sales and theme parks (Reuters)
• Citigroup might have difficulty escaping its $400 million marketing deal with the New York Mets, but the bank could reduce its obligation by finding another company to assume the most important part of the contract: sponsoring the new baseball stadium (Reuters)

(Reuters photo of Live Nation CEO Michael Rapino)

Safe haven. Two magical — and mysterious — words. Cable and satellite companies didn’t fit the safe haven bill in 2008, but 2009 just may be there year.

According to a Reuters story out today, “cable and satellite service providers now hold the promise of strong free cash flow growth as they retain old customers but spend less on deploying set-top boxes and digital video recorders due to a fall in new subscriber growth.”

Remember, however, that before the economy fell apart, a number of investors considered the pay TV industry “recession proof.” The argument went that even in the toughest of times, Americans would stay home and watch TV, saving money on trips to movies or out to dinner.

But this argument overlooked a number of factors that have really undermined the industry. For example, fewer people are moving into new homes, and those that do aren’t likely  to spend their savings on discretionary channels like HBO.

Before jumping on the bandwagon, however, it may be wise to take a look at some of the earnings coming up over the next couple weeks. Start with Time Warner Cable tomorrow, that should be a good gauge of whether these guys really can provide shelter from the storm.

Keep an eye on:

• The age of Obama dawned with a wake-up call to the U.S. television industry to get serious about Internet-based sources of revenue (Reuters)
• Barry Diller’s Internet media company IAC/InterActiveCorp posted a fourth-quarter profit on Tuesday after benefiting from the sale of a Japanese TV shopping channel last December (Reuters)
• Sirius XM Satellite Radio later this month will have to find a way to handle $174.6 million in debt that is coming due (Wall Street Journal)

(Photo: Reuters)

We were talking the other day about job cuts — more specifically about who would be next to feel the axe blade. We’d seen big cuts at Viacom, Omnicom, Warner Brothers and Time Inc, and, you know, it obviously didn’t take a genius to figure more were coming.

The next day: A memo from AOL Chief Executive Randy Falco announces that the Internet unit of Time Warner will cut 700 jobs, or about 10 percent of its workforce;  Reader’s Digest says it will cut 8 percent of its staff.

And now we come to Walt Disney Co, which is cutting about 5 percent of its workforce through a combination of 200 layoffs and a job freeze on another 200 positions.

“After months of making hard decisions across our businesses to help us adjust to a weakening economy, we’re now faced with the harsh reality of having to eliminate jobs in some areas,” Anne Sweeney, co-chair of Disney-Media Networks and president of Disney-ABC Television, said in a memo sent to workers and obtained by Reuters.

So now it’s worth asking yet again: Who is next?

Could it be News Corp? Portfolio reports that The Wall Street Journal’s newsroom “is due to undergo another round of personnel cuts late next week. It’s unclear exactly how many employees will be affected, but two sources put the number of people being targeted at 50.”

And FishBowlNY reports that the “entire staff of Page Six Magazine will be packing up their desks on the heels of today’s announcement that the weekly New York Post insert would move to a quarterly publication schedule.”

Keep an eye on:

• Dell Inc had a team working on developing a cellphone for more than a year and is now preparing to roll one out as early as next month, sources tell The Wall Street Journal (WSJ.com) 
• Dating A Banker Anonymous (http://dabagirls.wordpress.com), a blog started by two New Yorkers, has made waves on the blogosphere this week with its tales of woe (Reuters)
• Lack of confidence among clients is hitting the Chinese advertising market, clouding the outlook for revenue growth this year, the head of Internet media firm Sina Corp said in Davos (Reuters)

(Photo: Reuters)

 If that notion of a recession-resistant entertainment industry hasn’t already been debunked, just get in touch with one of your pals out in Hollywood. They’ll tell you how bad it is — how jobs are disappearing.

Warner Brothers Entertainment is the latest to cut staff, announcing 800 jobs would be lost, or 10 percent of its worldwide staff.  NBC Universal and Viacom have already cut jobs, and industry watchers expect more job cuts to be announced by Walt Disney and Sony Pictures.

Perhaps more than other layoffs, the Warner Bros cuts send a signal of just how bad business look, The New York Times points out.

While not unexpected — Warner had been quietly preparing Hollywood to expect cuts — the layoffs rattled the movie capital because the studio is regarded as one of the industry’s healthiest. With a parade of hits like “The Dark Knight,” “Sex and the City,” “Get Smart” and “Four Christmases,” Warner recorded global ticket sales of $1.77 billion in 2008, up 25 percent from a year earlier.

But DVD sales plummeted in the fourth quarter and orders of scripted television programs — a huge Warner business — are expected to decline as networks cope with tumbling advertising sales. The struggles of Warner’s parent company, Time Warner, in the publishing arena have also put pressure on the studio to increase profitability.

The Wall Street Journal  also notes the challenges faced by parent Time Warner.

The deepening economic downturn has heaped added pressure on Time Warner to cut costs. The company recently announced a $25 billion fourth-quarter write-down to account for the tumbling value of its cable, publishing and AOL businesses, and once again scaled back its advertising outlook.

Warner Bros. was always seen as one of Time Warner’s more bloated divisions, with significant room for trimming and margin improvement. Time Warner’s movie business has already gone through one round of around 300 job cuts last year when Time Warner folded its New Line Cinema unit into Warner Bros. and shut down two boutique labels, Picturehouse and Warner Independent Pictures.

Keep an eye on:

• Google will halt its Print Ads program on Feb. 28 because the program to help newspapers make more money in online advertising sales was not working (Reuters)
• Tensions are rising at Sony over a restructuring aimed at cost cutting (FT.com) 
• Russian billionaire and ex-KGB agent Alexander Lebedev is buying a majority interest in London’s struggling Evening Standard newspaper for a nominal sum (Reuters)

(Photo: Reuters)

U.S. shoppers are still spending in a big way — they are just not buying cars, plane tickets, clothing, etc. But they are buying video games.

While most media segments try to maintain stability during today’s economic turmoil, the video game industry keeps on growing, with U.S. video game hardware and software sales up 10 percent last month according to NPD, fueled by record sales of Nintendo’s Wii console and DS hand-held system.

Nintendo’s Wii console sold over 2 million units in November, up from over 800,000 in the previous month.

A separate reports suggests that hard times may favor video games, adults will “turn to
staying in with video games rather than going out on the spend.”

(Reuters)

Keep an eye on:

• DreamWorks Animation launches characters like Shrek and the penguins from “Madagascar” into new lines of business, hoping to grow consistently even during a recession that already is slowing DVD sales. (Los Angeles Times)
• Time Warner names CEO Jeff Bewkes as chairman; Richard Parsons to step down on Dec. 31 (PaidContent)
• CBS Interactive reorganization details (PaidContent)
• Howard Stern contemplates re-signing with Sirius XM (Orbitcast)

(Photo: Reuters)

Yahoo: Shun me once, shame on you. Shun me three times in one day, shame on… uh, shame on all of you.

First, Google walked away from their search advertising partnership, saying that it had enough with interference from U.S. antitrust regulators. That’s no surprise — remember the deal was originally conceived as a way for Yahoo to fend off Microsoft’s takeover ambitions? On that score, Google can certainly say: mission accomplished.

Then, investors and bloggers started speculating that Google’s withdrawal could make room for Microsoft to return to the negotiating table. Shares of Yahoo jumped as much as 11 percent on rumors that the companies were in advanced talks … before several people familiar with the situation roundly denied that Microsoft was close to making an offer.

Finally, when News Corp was asked on its earnings call about the status of its previously reported discussions with Yahoo or Microsoft, Rupert Murdoch said, “There are no talks.”

That seems to leave Yahoo with only one possible partner: Time Warner’s AOL. The two companies are supposed to be in due diligence on a combination, but when questioned on its earnings call, Time Warner CEO Jeffrey Bewkes was vague:

You know all of the usual suspects and things that go on, including even some breaking news today, in some of our competitors. So the opportunities or possibilities remain open for this whole business to restructure itself, and to build adequate scale to compete with whoever is in the lead position and I think we have all seen the interest at both, just to mention a few companies, Microsoft, Yahoo and even Google, to bulk up and increase scale. And we’re no different in that regard. So beyond that, we can’t really say what is possible, or what is under way.

In other words, guess again.

(Reuters photo: Yahoo CEO Jerry Yang talks to Google co-founders Larry Page and Sergey Brin at 26th annual Allen & Co conference in Sun Valley, July 10, 2008)

Can you tell it’s book-flacking time?

Vanity Fair is running the second excerpt from the forthcoming book that Michael Wolff wrote about News Corp chief Rupert Murdoch (this one centers on his family), and Wolff is making the rounds this week to talk about it. He was on CNBC moments ago, engaging in everyone’s favorite media parlor game: Parsing Murdoch’s every move like a multi-clause sentence. Friday’s appearance follows a panel discussion at a PaidContent.org conference earlier this week where he made similar remarks. Here’s what he said on CNBC.

What will Murdoch do after buying The Wall Street Journal? What’s his next move?

“I’m not sure that he exactly knows. One of the problems here is that he bought a newspaper and not only did he buy a newspaper, but if he had only waited six months to buy that newspaper he would have saved a billion and a half dollars.” (Nothing like hindsight, is there?)

What will he buy? What will he sell?

“I don’t think that he’ll do either in the short term. I think in the short term they’ll try to manage their businesses the best way they know how.”

Does Rupert care that his stock is down?

“Does he care? No! Do the people around him care? The people holding stock options? Well, let me put it this way. Having spent a lot of time around that building, I have heard people at the highest echelons of that company complaining deeply about the price of News Corp shares.”

Was buying the Journal a mistake?

“I don’t think it’s a mistake for Rupert. I think it’s actually the crowning glory for Rupert. Is it a business mistake? Of course it’s a business mistake. It’s a newspaper!”

Who will run News Corp after Murdoch dies?

“I think we know who it’s going to be. His four adult children are going to be very clearly holding the reins.
James will be the CEO. … It depends on when Rupert departs this vale of tears. Is james ready to be the CEO? … Rupert wants all his children as close to him as they can possibly be but there’s no question at this point that the heir apparent is James.”

Would News Corp buy CBS? Its stock is falling like a rock.

“Somebody is going to buy CBS. Is it going to be News Corp? My bet would probably be Time Warner as the buyer for CBS.”

(Photo: Reuters)