MediaFile

Race On: Will the media outpace U.S. GDP growth as Veronis forecast?

Athlete Alyson Felix in training for this year's Olympics. Will U.S. economy keep pace? (Photo: Reuters)

 

The world is a wonderful place if you’re in the U.S. media business, according to the mid-term update from Veronis Suhler Stevenson.

The private equity firm forecasts the U.S communications industry–which includes everything from Hollywood and cable to education publishing and Yellow Pages–will grow faster than the U.S. economy in 2012. The total communications industry is project to grow by 5.6  percent compared with 4.4 percent GDP growth for the United States.

In particular the top performing segments will include what VSS calls Pure-Play Consumer Internet & Mobile Services, up 18.1 percent,  Public Relations & Word-0f-Mouth Marketing, up 14.6 percent and Broadcast TV, up 9.3 percent. Subscription TV is expected to grow by 7.7 percent while branded entertainment is forecast to grow 7.5 percent.

Unsurprisingly, those that will underperform the economy and be down frm last year include consumer magazine publishing, down 2.2 percent; newspapers, down 3.8 percent; and local consumer directories, down 5.6 percent.

from Summit Notebook:

Alphabet-shaped recovery? Try bathtub-shaped

We've all heard discussions on what letter of the alphabet the economic recovery will look like. Will it be "V" shaped -- as in, a sharp plummeting, followed by an equally sharp upswing? Or more "U" shaped -- a downturn followed by a flat period before the recovery starts? Is the lightness we're witnessing in the economy the mid-point in a more extended recovery process, mirroring the letter "W"? And heaven forbid, let's not even think we might be stuck in an "L" shaped economy, with no near or medium-term hope of improvement.

We asked the chief executives of Sybase and Symantec, our first two guests at the Reuters Global Technology Summit, what they thought the recovery graph might look like.

Sybase CEO John Chen said he remains cautious about the overall economic outlook despite talk of a "green shoots" rebound and the idea that tech spending has hit a bottom. So it's unlikely to be a V-shaped recovery or even a W-shaped recovery, Chen said. He think the economy is going through a U-shaped recovery, although it might be a year or more before we begin to climb up the right side of the "U."