As the Microsoft-Yahoo will-they-won’t-they? saga drags on, Google’s role in any future talks becomes more apparent.

On Thursday Google CEO Eric Schmidt said a two-week trial selling search advertisements on rival Yahoo last month had given the companies good reason to discuss cooperation, but there was no deal yet.

That isn’t great news for some in the online advertising world.  As commentators have pointed out, a Google-Yahoo partnership (Yahoogle? Yoogle? Gahoo?) could concentrate too much power with just one team. This has led to some folk to paint Microsoft as the little guy. Yes, the same Microsoft, which is a Monopoly 101 case study for first-year economics college students.

In a TV interview with CNBC on Friday, WPP CEO Martin Sorrell said, “It was a shame…that those negotiations failed. Maybe they’ll come back again.”

Sorrell, whose empire of ad agencies includes Ogilvy, JWT and Y&R,  said the advertising industry lost a potential balancing influence in the Web search market when the talks between Microsoft and Yahoo collapsed.

Meanwhile,  Silicon Alley Insider reports that Google is seriously considering having display ads on its home page, based on statements from executives. SAI estimates Google could add up to $3 billion to $4 billion in annual revenue if it decided to do so.

 Keep an eye on:

* British video search engine company Blinkx sees it shares fly on rumors of a possible bid by News Corp or Google  (Reuters)

* MySpace lets users share their profiles across the Web (Reuters)

* Real Networks spins off its gaming division (GigaOM)

(Photo: Reuters)

MediaFile wrote last week about Steve Ballmer’s world tour to promote Microsoft’s unsolicited takeover bid for Yahoo. Now that the Microsoft has walked away and the odds for Microhoo aren’t looking so hot, Microsoft execs have fanned out across the globe to explain the company’s decision. To Skhirat, Morocco, San Donato Milanese, Italy and Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium, we can now add Seoul, London and Jakarta.

Let’s put them up on the big board!

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And it was thus decreed that the messengers of Steve Ballmer were sent far across the land to say No to an alliance with the kingdom of Yahoo:
    
“Yahoo could always come back again and say please buy us for $33 (a share) and I’m sure we might reconsider it, but we’re not assuming that’s going to happen,” Microsoft Chief Research and Strategy Office Craig Mundie to Reuters in Jakarta, May 8. 

“The conclusion was reached that we should pursue our independent path,” Microsoft Chairman Bill Gates in Tokyo, May 7.    
    
“The key decisions on that will be made by Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer, who took a look at Yahoo and decided that, on our own, he likes the stuff that we’re doing,” Gates in Seoul, May 6.

“We decided to move on and basically withdraw our offer …. Absolutely, that’s the end of the story. We are moving on because our strategy is very clear,” Microsoft International President Jean-Philippe Courtois to Reuters in London, May 6.

The globe-trotting Microsoft messengers have yet to fully convince Yahoo shareholders of their sincerity, since investors have propped the stock up to nearly $26 despite the break-up of talks over the weekend. That’s well below Microsoft’s last offer for $33 per share, but still perched higher than the $19-level, where Yahoo traded before the takeover offer was made public on Feb. 1.

Maybe shareholders are mindful of Microsoft’s last world tour in April, when Ballmer hopscotched through Morocco, Italy and Belgium saying there was no way he would raise his initial offer of $31 for Yahoo. Two weeks, and two dollars per share later, Yahoo is still waiting.

Keep an eye on:

* Rupert Murdoch says News Corp is feeling the squeeze on advertising budgets due to a weakened U.S. economy; the company’s division that includes MySpace will likely miss a $1 billion annual revenue goal by 10 percent. (Reuters)

* Warner Music Group’s quarterly loss comes in worse than expected and the company suspends its dividend to raise cash and cut debt. (Reuters)

* NBC Universal is starting a 24-hour local news network in New York, in what could be the first of several such channels around the country, to help weather a weak local TV advertising market. (WSJ)
 
Photo: Reuters

Legendary media money manager Gordon Crawford blasted Yahoo Chief Jerry Yang for blowing the Microsoft deal in high profile interviews with the Wall Street Journal and the New York Times.

“I am extremely angry at Jerry Yang and at the so-called independent board,” Crawford told the Times. ”I’m hoping that there is such an outpouring of outrage that the board is embarrassed into revisiting this thing …  but I’m not optimistic about that.”

It may not be wise to aggravate Crawford, portfolio manager for Capital Research Global Investors, a division of Capital Research & Management, which owns 16 percent of Yahoo.

Just ask AllThingsD’s Kara Swisher about how Crawford treated Steve Case in the AOL Time Warner disaster. Within a year, AOL Time Warner Chairman Steve Case resigned.

(Photo: Reuters/Steve Case)

Yahoo Chief Jerry Yang is leaving the door open to Microsoft, he tells us. In an interview with Reuters’ Michele Gershberg, Yang says he had been seeking common ground when Microsoft abruptly ended deal talks.

Yang: “We were negotiating a way to find common ground and then on Saturday they chose to walk away.”

Asked if they’re up for more from Microsoft, Yang says, “If they have anything new to say, we would be open … I am more than willing to listen.”

Is this a cover-our-butts move in the event they face shareholder lawsuits or is it a candid appeal to Microsoft to come back to the table?

Separately, sources are telegraphing that a final agreement between Google and Yahoo has not been reached as they discuss a potential deal with regulators. They also say any potential deal with Yahoo would not be prohibitive to Yahoo striking other agreements down the line. The move appears to be Google’s attempt at playing both sides — offering a carrot to Yahoo, while appeasing regulators.

The intrigue builds …

Now that Microsoft Corp has withdrawn its bid for Yahoo Inc, one of the questions on the minds of many (MediaFile included) is what’s the attitude like at the Web company’s leafy Sunnyvale, California headquarters. Elation? Disappointment? Anger? Frustration? Relief? Fear? Pride? Confusion?

So I made the drive to the Yahoo campus today to find out. Security at the main gate turned me away, but I managed to take cover behind a Yahoo sign and ask employees as they walked by if they would mind talking about the whole Microsoft thing.

Here’s what I got: No thank you, politely, from 40 people.

While I promised anonymity, Yahoos clearly aren’t in the mood to talk about their feelings publicly. At least not to a reporter at the company’s campus. Perhaps some of you out there would rather drop us a comment? Feel free. Fire away. Let us know how you feel.

After all, three months ago you didn’t shy from talking about the “big octopus from 20,000 Leagues Under the Sea.”

(Photo: Reuters)

Now that Microsoft has broken off its pursuit of Yahoo, the only thing we know for sure is that those two technology icons will not be merging (right now). Every other possibility and option for the two companies is up in the air. (One thing is for sure, Yahoo’s stock is already down more than 20 percent .)

There are no shortage of opinions:

** Microsoft’s Steve Ballmer is “under the gun” to spend the $46 billion earmarked for Yahoo. (New York Post)

** Yahoo’s Jerry Yang and his crew were “elated” when Microsoft withdrew its offer — but their joy may be short-lived. (Los Angeles Times) (NOTE - Yang in his own blog vaguely addresses reports of celebration breaking out in Yahoo’s camp:  “No one is celebrating about the outcome of these past three months… and no one should.”)

** There is no clear idea of a quick fix for Microsoft, as “the center of gravity in computing continues to move away from the personal computer, Microsoft’s stronghold, and to the Internet.” (New York Times)

** Yahoo shouldn’t abandon its proposed search deal with Google. (Silicon Alley Insider)

Even Jerry Yang has some thoughts :

Has this experience changed us? Of course, it has. We’ve emerged a stronger, more focused company with an even greater sense of purpose.

 Shareholders don’t seem to hold the same opinion today. What do you think Microsoft and Yahoo will do next?

(Reuters)

Keep an eye on:

• Warner Bros to Take Over Daytime Programming for The CW (Broadcasting & Cable)
• Cablevision’s $650 million bid for Newsday includes the newspaper’s real estate, and therefore the difference between its offer and offers from Mort Zuckerman and Rupert Murdoch smaller than it first appears. (New York Times)

(Photo: Reuters)

Microsoft dumped its offer to buy Yahoo on Saturday. A closer reading of Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer’s letter to Yahoo’s Jerry Yang shows Microsoft is content to do nothing less than choke the air supply out of Yahoo’s trachea.

Consider these sweet bon mots in Ballmer’s letter, which is also a thinly veiled salvo at Google:

We regard with particular concern your apparent planning to respond to a “hostile” bid by pursuing a new arrangement that would involve or lead to the outsourcing to Google of key paid Internet search terms offered by Yahoo! today. In our view, such an arrangement with the dominant search provider would make an acquisition of Yahoo! undesirable to us for a number of reasons:

– First, it would fundamentally undermine Yahoo!’s own strategy and long-term viability by encouraging advertisers to use Google as opposed to your Panama paid search system. This would also fragment your search advertising and display advertising strategies and the ecosystem surrounding them.

This would undermine the reliance on your display advertising business to fuel future growth.

– Given this, it would impair Yahoo’s ability to retain the talented engineers working on advertising systems that are important to our interest in a combination of our companies.

– In addition, it would raise a host of regulatory and legal problems that no acquirer, including Microsoft, would want to inherit. Among other things, this would consolidate market share with the already-dominant paid search provider in a manner that would reduce competition and choice in the marketplace.

– This would also effectively enable Google to set the prices for key search terms on both their and your search platforms and, in the process, raise prices charged to advertisers on Yahoo. In addition to whatever resulting legal problems, this seems unwise from a business perspective unless in fact one simply wishes to use this as a vehicle to exit the paid search business in favor of Google.

– It could foreclose any chance of a combination with any other search provider that is not already relying on Google’s search services.

Accordingly, your apparent plan to pursue such an arrangement in the event of a proxy contest or exchange offer leads me to the firm decision not to pursue such a path. Instead, I hereby formally withdraw Microsoft’s proposal to acquire Yahoo!.

We are eagerly awaiting Google’s response.

Meanwhile, Global Equities Research analyst Trip Chowdhry advances speculation — based on discussions with his industry contacts and applying game theory to his analysis — that Ballmer has masterfully played his hand to block Yahoo from a merger with Amazon.com.

Chowdhry thinks that Microsoft’s deal to buy Yahoo would likely be blocked by the Department of Justice, given its experience in 1995 with a deal to buy Quicken software-maker Intuit, when the DOJ did just that. At the time, Microsoft Money was the fourth biggest player.

Chowdhry: Yahoo’s management should make sure it does not fall into the trap of a potentially fake bid, as Microsoft itself probably may be knowing that the chances of a deal going through is unlikely, and the outcome could be similar to 1995, when DOJ blocked Microsoft’s acquisition of Intuit. We think Yahoo should hire Game Theorists to get insight into Microsoft’s both tactical as well as strategic moves.

(Photo: Reuters)

Talk about passing the buck.

During a panel discussion on media and entertainment at the Milken Institute Global Conference on Wednesday, former Yahoo! CEO Terry Semel swiftly deflected questions about the Internet company’s current pickle with Microsoft to his fellow panelist and Yahoo! board member Activision CEO Bobby Kotick.

Asked by moderator Dennis Kneale of CNBC how Yahoo had gotten itself in the position of being courted by Microsoft, Semel pointed to Kotick, who was sitting next to him.

“Ask the board member,” he said.

But Kotick wouldn’t bite. In fact, he said nothing at all.

Later on, Kneale tried again, asking another panelist, News Corp. President Peter Chernin, to tell Semel and Kotick what Yahoo! should do in response to Microsoft’s $44 billion bid.

“Can you tell us what Yahoo should do with itself?” Kneale pleaded.

Chernin also deferred to Kotick, who again said nothing. When pressed by Kneale to give the Yahoo board member his advice, Chernin finally gave a response that could only be characterized as diplomatic.

“I have no advice for Yahoo!, it seems to be doing just fine,” he said.

Semel gave a similarly deferential response when asked by Kneale whether News Corp. should spin off a portion of its MySpace business to the public.

“It’s a very good asset and I’m sure ultimately he will find a better way to monetize it and bring more and more advertising,” Semel said.

And they all lived happily ever after.

Time Warner Inc’s plan to split off its cable services division – widely expected by many and welcomed by some — raises just as many questions as it answers.

When is the split going to take place, for instance? And how? And what does this mean for AOL? Is it next up for a separation? Remember, Time Warner has already held discussions to merge the AOL unit with Yahoo Inc.

(Speaking of which, The Wall Street Journal says Microsoft could be making its next move in the takeover saga for Yahoo as early as Wednesday. One possibility: nominate a proxy slate of directors to replace the board at Yahoo. Also, Microsoft has considered earnmarking $1.5 billion to retain Yahoo employees should it win the company, Reuters says.)

At Time Warner, meanwhile, splitting off of the cable services division would mark the latest move by CEO Jeffrey Bewkes to revamp the company, whose stock price has lost a third of its value since the beginning of 2007.

Despite his efforts, first quarter earnings fell slightly more than expected. The breakdown: cable services were strong, with revenue up 8 percent, and AOL struggled, with revenue down 23 percent.

Keep an eye on:

• Paramount Pictures, which last year cast its lot exclusively with the ill-fated HD DVD home video format, enters the Blu-ray world with titles “Face/Off,” “Next” and “Bee Movie”. (Hollywood Reporter)
• A committee to protect editorial integrity at The Wall Street Journal said it will be more active in the search of a new managing editor for the paper after being blindsided by the resignation of Marcus Brauchli (Reuters)
• CBS Corp and NBC Universal plan to bid for the Weather Channel in the second round of bidding due in early to mid-May, sources say (Reuters)

(Photo: Reuters)