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June 16th, 2008

XM and Sirius: Weren’t they merging or something?

Posted by: Paul Thomasch

xmsr.jpg Finally, some movement.

It seems that the head of U.S. Federal Communications Commission Kevin Martin will support Sirius Satellite Radio’s proposed purchase of rival XM Satellite Radio.

The Washington Post and others are reporting that Martin decided to support the deal after the companies agreed to concessions intended to prevent the new company from raising prices or stifling competition among radio makers.

A decision has been a long time coming. Seventeen months ago the two companies announced they would merge, bringing entertainers such as Oprah Winfrey and shock jock Howard Stern under the same banner. The Justice Department approved the deal in March, but the companies are still waiting for the FCC.

The question is, have the delays made the whole issue mute? Have iPhones and every other sort of portable music/phone/camera/microwave oven gadget made concern over the XM/Sirius combination seem… well… dated?

Keep an eye on:

  • Carl Icahn, who launched a proxy battle in May to replace the board of Yahoo says the deal Yahoo forged with Google “might have some merit” (Reuters)
  • A bigger, meaner “The Incredible Hulk” crushed the competition at North American weekend box office with a $54.5 million take, but still fell short of its predecessor (Reuters)
  • Time Warner hopes to move swiftly to find a buyer for AOL’s dial-up business after the company completes its separation from the Platform A advertising division in the next month, unnamed sources told the (NY Post).
  • Canada’s Nortel Networks is challenging larger rival Cisco Systems with a negative advertising campaign, saying that Cisco’s equipment uses twice as much energy as that of Nortel’s (WSJ).
  • The Associated Press will attempt to set standards on how much of its articles and broadcasts bloggers and Web sites can excerpt without infringing on its copyright (New York Times).
June 13th, 2008

Google victorious?

Posted by: Tiffany Wu

nascar.jpgBack in May, we reported that Google was in the driver’s seat when it came to Microsoft and Yahoo’s on-again, off-again merger talks. Well, Thursday’s news suggests that Google has crossed the finish line — in first place.

Yahoo turned down what sources said was a $35/share offer from Microsoft for a 16 percent equity stake, choosing instead to seal a search advertising deal with Google for up to 10 years.

While Yahoo estimated a $250 million to $450 million boost to cash flow in the first year of the Google deal, and said the annual revenue opportunity was $800 million, Wall Street was skeptical.

Yahoo shares plunged as much as 14 percent to $22.50 at one point.

Forrester Web marketing analyst Shar VanBoskirk said the competitive benefit to Google appeared to outweigh the additional $250 million Yahoo stood to make:

Google just found a way to make money off of its biggest competitor’s inventory.

Global Crown Capital analyst Martin Pyykkonen added:

Yahoo is being a reseller of Google whenever it makes sense and that is likely to be a lot of the time given how much more effective Google Web search ads have proven to be. For Yahoo’s Panama system the deal is a humbling statement.”

While Microsoft shares rose 4 percent on investor relief that it wouldn’t overpay for a risky deal, Sanford C. Bernstein analyst Jeffrey Lindsay noted:

Google has made an enormous gain strategically. This move might well have shut Microsoft out of the online space altogether…Microsoft’s current online services business is losing money…Now they are trying to attack the search market with under 5 percent share.

This is how the Wall Street Journal’s Deal Journal put it:

Yahoo destroyed itself to save itself. Microsoft tried to get stronger, but only ended up exposing its own weakness. Somehow Google emerged triumphant, effectively neutralizing its two biggest competitors.

That is what makes the Yahoo-Microsoft nonmerger such a spectacular failure. Never have so few failed so many for so much at stake.

(Photo: Kyle Busch gets out of his car in the victory lane after winning the NASCAR Sprint Cup Best Buy 400 benefiting Student Clubs for Autism Speaks at Dover International Speedway in Dover, Delaware June 1, 2008. REUTERS/Robert LeSieur)

June 13th, 2008

Yahoo and Microsoft, or, when is dead really dead?

Posted by: Robert MacMillan

When Microsoft first said it was ending talks to buy Yahoo, many people thought, “well, that’s the end of it.” Zombie movie fans, on the other hand, know that a dead body can get up and walk again. And walk again it did!

But you have to believe The New York Times when it says you can lay the corpse to rest. And that’s just what the Times Dealbook said about Yahoo and Microsoft on Thursday evening:

The talks are dead. Really, this time they are dead. Yahoo is preparing to announce that it has ended its talks with Microsoft over a search-related deal as well as the sale of the entire company, people involved in the discussions said. Yahoo is expected to move forward with an advertising pact with Google as early as today, these people said. How did we get to this point?

Visit the comments section for further hand-wringing.

The Seattle Post-Intelligencer believes in resurrection, however:

But rather than closing the book on the saga, which began with Microsoft’s unsolicited bid for Yahoo, today’s developments appear likely to open a new chapter. Yahoo says the agreement will be non-exclusive and will make it a stronger competitor. However, Microsoft previously raised antitrust concerns about an alliance between the No. 1 and No. 2 players in the search business. The Redmond company has not commented on the deal yet.

Buried in the Yahoo release is another notable piece of news: Google and Yahoo will make their instant-messaging systems work with one another. The Yahoo and Microsoft IM systems already work together.

Yahoo said the Google ad deal represents a revenue opportunity of as much as $800 million a year, and $250 million to $450 million in annual operating cash flow. Yang said the companies don’t believe the agreement requires regulatory approval, but the companies are waiting three-and-a-half months to allow the U.S. Justice Department to review it.

And then there’s just plain nihilism:

Yahoo is now in a four year long deal with Google. I am sure Microsoft is not going to be happy and would follow the legal route. Personally, a deal between Google and Yahoo is any day better than a deal between Microsoft and Yahoo.

June 11th, 2008

Icahn to Yahoo’s board: Shame on you

Posted by: Paul Thomasch

icahn2.jpg The heat is definitely on at Yahoo.

As though it weren’t under enough pressure, the board now has Carl Icahn warning them that they will be held personally liable for approving a controversial employee severance plan.

Oh, and shareholders suing the company now want a speedy trial related to failed merger talks between Yahoo and Microsoft, saying they would like to get to court before the company’s August 1 annual meeting.

Here’s the upshot of the fight over the severance plan: Shareholders suing the company argue that the board is free  to reorganize Yahoo’s work force as it sees fit without fear of triggering the severance benefits.

But the catch, they say, is that if Icahn’s board slate prevails, then Yahoo shareholders will be forced to fund the costly severance payouts to departing workers.

Yahoo denied assertions made in the lawsuit in a response filed with U.S. regulators.

Let’s forget the courts for a second. Perhaps of more immediate concern is the public relations battle that Icahn is waging against Yahoo. Yesterday, after a speech to the New York Financial Writers’ Association, Icahn told Reuters, “If they continue with this line, I believe they (the board) may be personally liable.” 

He also called the board’s actions “reprehensible.”

“These board members get $10,000 a week to go to a few boondoggle meetings,” he said during the speech.

You can imagine that Yahoo’s boardroom isn’t the place you really want to be spending your summer.

Keep an eye on: 

  • The new iPhone wasn’t the only Apple blockbuster franchise displaying a slimmer frame Monday - a dramatically skinnier CEO Steve Jobs was, too (NY Post)
  • Pearl Jam has struck a deal with Verizon Wireless’ V Cast service to sell select tracks from the authorized live bootlegs that will be available in conjunction with the band’s upcoming summer tour (Billboard)
  • U.S. officials are facing a potential glitch in a program designed to help television viewers make the switch to digital TV next year (Reuters)
  • Landmark Communications has distributed information to potential bidders on Dominion Enterprises, its portfolio of advertising websites and publications, now that its attempt to sell The Weather Channel is nearing its final stages (FT.com)
  • FiLife, a personal finance venture from IAC/InterActiveCorp and Dow Jones & Co, will open its site to a public test on Wednesday after a year in development and much media speculation over its future (Reuters)

(Photo: Reuters)

June 4th, 2008

Yahoo’s open embrace

Posted by: Michele Gershberg

decker.jpgThis is not an entry about Microsoft. It is an entry about Yahoo’s wagon-load of new ad partnerships announced today and what we learned about the future of online advertising exchanges. Basically, Yahoo executives told us they are trying to build a more open, more social Internet strategy vis a vis consumers and advertisers.

On the consumer side, expect Yahoo to rewire its sites, email and instant messaging so that users can manage information about themselves and their friends in a single place. 
    
At a lunch with reporters after speaking at the Advertising 2.0 conference, Yahoo President Sue Decker said those changes would become apparent late this year and early next year.
    
For advertisers, some of the new partnerships announced on Wednesday include important tie-ins to Yahoo’s Right Media Exchange, where online ad space can be bought and sold more efficiently, based on the laws of supply and demand in force everywhere else.
 
The ideas are part of a bigger shift away from expecting viewers to come to a given site, toward extending your services out to wherever your users may be.
 
“It feels like the industry is ripe right now for contributing to a larger ecosystem,” Decker said.
 
Right Media’s Mike Walrath put it diplomatically, suggesting the days of publishers or other parties who try to control their own ad pricing in an open market could be numbered.
    
“If your business is based on inefficiency, and as the market becomes more efficient … some models will strengthen,” he said.

Media agency Havas Digital is participating in one of the new deals, agreeing to build a proprietary ad trading platform based on Yahoo’s technology. Havas Digital CEO Don Epperson told us in an interview that Havas had been working with Yahoo on this for nearly 9 months, and called Yahoo’s attitude refreshing.

There’s really a new attitude where they want to be open … I think it’s some publishers out there, they very much view their technology as proprietary and therefore not open. They also want to give most information to their own sales staff and not to the full general agency.
 
What Yahoo has made the jump to … is that the more information you give the advertiser (about the market value of prices) … we’re going to buy more where we know that we can get a good deal.

(Photo: Reuters)

June 4th, 2008

Yahoo: We’ve got announcements!

Posted by: Paul Thomasch

yahoo-night.jpgWhy announce one deal when you can do four?

Just a day after billionaire investor Carl Icahn called for the removal of Yahoo CEO Jerry Yang, the company blasted out of the gate Wednesday morning, trumpeting deals with CBS, Walmart.com, Havas Digital and the newspaper consortium.

With CBS, Yahoo will carry some of its shows as the broadcaster continues to proliferate the Web with them through other partners AOL, Microsoft, and Google. For Walmart.com, Yahoo will be the primary marketing and sales channel for the retailer’s web site. Yahoo also said an additional 41 U.S. newspapers have joined its newspaper consortium, which lets them use Yahoo’s paid search system as well as have their stories carried over Yahoo properties.

Yahoo also inked a deal with Havas Digital to develop a proprietary media trading platform.

It would be considered good news during any other period. For now, investors are reserving judgement for August 1, the date of its annual shareholders meeting.

Meanwhile, what Reuters correspondent Michele Gershberg is reporting out of the Advertising 2.0 conference on Wednesday will likely dominate buzz in the Microsoft Yahoo betting circles. Speaking at the conference, Yahoo President Sue Decker tells the audience that engaged conversations with Microsoft continue, and that “there are many ways” a combo with Microsoft could be beneficial.

Here’s a riddle: What does Decker mean when she says Yahoo will be a principal in search as well as display. Can we interpret this as a sign it has no intentions to sell off its paid search business to Microsoft. Or, if it strikes a deal with Google, will she still consider Yahoo a principal in search?

(Reuters)

Keep an eye on:

  • Sony struck a deal that lets ads distributed over the Internet be inserted into PlayStation 3 videogames (The Wall Street Journal)
  • The upfront market is up and running with buyers saying the market is anywhere from 20 percent to 50 percent complete. Fox and ABC are setting the market (AdAge.com)
  • Tribune Co. wants to keep a minority stake in the Chicago Cubs after it sells control of the major league ballclub. It also wants to talk to comedian Jay Leno about a possible job (Chicago Tribune)
June 3rd, 2008

Apple’s new iPhone: It’s almost time

Posted by: Paul Thomasch

apple.jpgIt’s almost time, at least we’re pretty sure it’s almost time. Come Monday, Apple CEO Steve Jobs is widely expected to introduce a new iPhone at the company’s developers’ conference.

Early buzz is that the new iPhone will be faster and accompanied by support for corporate e-mail, which should help expand the gadget’s audience to the business world. Apple has declined to comment on what Jobs will announce, but speculation can be found just about anywhere on the web.

Rather than spending hours today reading through all the rumors, check out TechCrunch, which gives a good roundup of the iPhone chatter.

It’s easy to get excited about all the potential new features on the phone, but keep in mind this is also a big business story for Apple. After all, it’s introducing the new iPhone at a tricky time for the economy.

Sure, it may reach out more to corporate customers with this version, but the iPhone is still heavily reliant on demand from your average consumer. With $4-per-gallon gasoline, underwater mortgages and a tough job outlook, your average consumer isn’t in the best place right now.

Even so, investors seem to believe that demand is holding up for Apple products like the Macintosh or the iPod, given that the company’s stock is up 50 percent over the past three months. We’ll soon find out. 

Keep an eye on:  

  • Britain’s Taylor Nelson Sofres and Germany’s GfK have agreed to a merger to create the world’s second-biggest market research company with a market value of about $4 billion (Reuters)
  • Yahoo Inc CEO Jerry Yang ordered up a draft press release rejecting a Microsoft Corp takeover bid months before January’s unsolicited bid, company documents unsealed on Monday show (Reuters)
  • Fire-damaged Universal Studios reopened Monday as investigators examined the ruins of some of the most famous sets in Hollywood to find the cause of the spectacular weekend blaze (The Wall Street Journal)
  • NBC Universal’s Jeff Zucker can no longer rely on GE’s deep financial pockets amid investor pressure, so had looked to private equity firms to help fund a bid for the Weather Channel (NY Post)

(Photo: Reuters)

June 2nd, 2008

Yahoo to Microsoft: No, No, No

Posted by: Kenneth Li

yangthinking.jpgDetails of the backroom dealings between Microsoft and Yahoo from an investor lawsuit were unsealed by Delaware Chancery Court Judge William Chandler on Monday.

The document adds some color to what we already know, including a history of rebuffing offers dating back to 2007, criticism over the size of Yahoo’s severance plan by its own consultants and Yahoo’s recently hired CTO.

Notes by a Yahoo participant from a phone call between CEO Jerry Yang and Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer Ballmer also appear to indicate that Yang quickly rejected Microsoft’s January 2008 overtures, as his predecessor Terry Semel did a year before (at the far higher price of $40).

The following are excerpts from the complaint containing internal Yahoo correspondence. The numbers at the start of each excerpt  refer to the paragraph order in the complaint:

Terry Semel rejects a $40 per share offer from Microsoft in Jan. 2007

31. Yahoo’s reaction has been consistent, giving the back of the hand to Microsoft’s efforts towards a consensual deal, including a January 2007 acquisition proposal offering about $40 per share. The Board-authorized response to that approach was a letter from then-CEO Terry Semel rejecting “a broader strategic transaction at [that] time,” but professing a willingness to discuss “a commercial partnership arrangement.” Discovery obtained by Plaintiffs gives no indication of serious discussions about any such commercial relationship.

Yang ordered a rejection letter to be prepared in Oct, 2007 spurning an expected offer from a “third party” that the complaint says is Microsoft:

32.  During an October 5, 2007, meeting, Yang and the Board discussed “recent communications about a third party’s interest in a transaction with the Company” and “the likelihood that a third party would make an offer to purchase the Company.” Yang obtained approval to set the stage publicly for a rejection of any offer. A standby press release to be issued by Yang after consultation with select Board members stated, among other things, that “the Board will carefully consider the offer and is committed to acting in the best interests of shareholders in doing so,” but that it had “very recently determined that it was not the right time for the company to seek to sell itself.”

Notes from phone call between Microsoft’s Steve Ballmer and Yahoo’s Jerry Yang a day ahead of Microsoft going public with its offer

38.  On January 31, 2008, telephone call captured by notes of an unidentified Yahoo participant, Ballmer told Yang that Microsoft much preferred to negotiate a deal in private but was prepared to disclose its offer publicly because of concerns that Yang would never support any deal, regardless of price. According to the notes:

–if we want to make a counterproposal and in the ballpark then we don’t go public and we push for an [agreement].

*****

–if you guys can’t get to a [point] of discussion in a couple of days — then still going to go public — and everyone can see what investors think

–if on the same page tonight then hold announcement but if not then we put it out there and its visible and we work through it

*****

if had a price and willing to sell the business and get that comfort from you and Roy then can hold it a couple of days

Jerry — you don’t lose anything by waiting a week.

*****

Steve — if you really don’t want to sell the biz then don’t want to wait.

Microsoft had earmarked $1.5 billion to retain Yahoo employees.

39.  According to the notes, Microsoft made clear from the outset it “care[s] about employees,” “want[s] employees to be OK,” and had earmarked “$1.5b for retention of employees,” in addition to the “$45b for deal.”

Yahoo CTO Ari Balogh disagreed with Yang’s quick adoption of an employee retention plan.

50. The day after Microsoft’s offer, Yahoo’s newly-hired Chief Technology Officer, Ari Balogh, the person to whom Yahoo’s engineers report, told Yang that he disagreed with Yang’s desire for immediate adoption of a broad employee retention plan. Balogh reasoned that Microsoft’s offer:

“is likely hugely retentive for anyone who understands how these things go (and everyone will shortly as we prepare them for the dance). We should run the glue analysis on the key folks, and have set up a pool and leeway to move quickly based on senior management judgment, as necessary. After this settles in, we can make a decision on something narrow or broad or nothing.”

 A compensation consultant firm Yahoo hired to evaluate its change in control severance plan called Yahoo’s plans “nuts.”

61. Compensia calculated that the cost of the proposal would equal $1.5 billion, or 3.2% of the transaction price. In an internal email, Compensia President Tim Sparks wrote that “3.2% seems very high for a deal of this size, but I am guessing (hoping) that this assumes 100% double trigger activation?” (Ex. A) In an email one minute later, Sparks made clear his view of Yang’s plan to provide 100% equity acceleration for all employees: “That’s nuts.” (Ex. B)

May 29th, 2008

Bleeding purple or just bleeding?

Posted by: Paul Thomasch

yahoo1.jpgYahoo Chief Executive Jerry Yang says Microsoft just isn’t interested in a full merger these days.

His comments, his most extensive to date on the Microsoft merger drama, back up what had been the talk around town — that chances of a full-fledged merger between the two had dimmed considerably. Yang, however, did signal his company remained open to a potential deal.

“We did not walk away from that proposal. Microsoft did,” Yang said during an on-stage interview at the D: All Things Digital conference.

“Microsoft is no longer interested in buying the company, and we are talking about other things. We definitely have to understand what they’re proposing…they clearly have an interest in Yahoo, and we need to understand more,” Yang said.

A source familiar with the situation said last week that Microsoft has proposed buying Yahoo’s search business and taking a minority stake in the Web pioneer, but has stopped stopping short of reinitiating full merger negotiations.

Judging from the Wall Street Journal, Yang’s comments on stage reflect what’s happening between par putts on the golf course.  It reports that Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer and Yang played a round of golf over the weekend to discuss Yahoo’s search advertising business. But there was no indication that Microsoft still wanted to take over Yahoo.

Back onstage, meanwhile, Yang took some time to defend his track record after nearly one year as CEO and told the audience he was the right person for the job.

“I do think I am the best person to lead Yahoo,” Yang said.

Or, according to the New York Times… “Asked why he should be the leader to take the company forward, Mr. Yang said it was about his ‘passion’ and the fact that he still ‘bleeds purple,’ a reference to the distinctive color of the company’s logo.”

 Keep an eye on: 

  • Havas Chairman Vincent Bollore said on Thursday he remained “calm” despite his latest failed attempt at securing two seats on the board of British rival Aegis (Reuters)
  • The Wall Street Journal is about to step up its sports coverage, with the goal of turning its sports section into a “thinking man’s sports site,” the WSJ’s Adam Thompson told RotoNation
  • The Screen Actors Guild and major studios returned to the bargaining table on Wednesday from a three-week recess in contract talks after another Hollywood union came to terms with producers on a new labor deal (Reuters)

(Photo: Reuters)

May 29th, 2008

Breaking up is hard to do - Yahoo’s Yang

Posted by: Kenneth Li

Yahoo_YangGetting jilted by your girlfriend. That’s how Yahoo’s Jerry Yang described the falling out with Microsoft mid-negotiations during the most highly anticipated session at D: All Things Digital conference.

How does it feel being left at the altar?
From AllThingsD’s live blog:

Yang: It’s like when you break up with your girlfriend in high school. It very quickly becomes he-said/she-said. I don’t want to look back. But I think we both understand that there is a tremendous amount of power in a combination like the one Microsoft proposed.

Despite the public drubbing for driving Microsoft away, Yang maintains he’s still the best person to lead Yahoo. And not just because he bleeds purple.

Why Yang’s the right person at the right time
From paidContent’s live blog:

Yang: I do think I am the best person to lead Yahoo, not only because I bleed purple and bleed Yahoo. There is a big opportunity to fulfill at Yahoo…I also felt it was my time to take the company to the next level. In so many ways, the right leadership team, with Sue (Decker, president) and (co-founder David) Filo, we can achieve that dream. I feel like I am most passionate and have the vision of where we want to be. We are starting to show that Yahoo can be on this past to be a different entity…”

What the hell happened?
From Cnet:

Sue Decker: We never got through the price door. There was a lot that wasn’t finished. Price really was the first one.

How Yahoo lost its way
paidContent:

Decker:  I think as a company we have made a few mistakes. We were really close in those early years to the users, over time we started organizing around the products. 

(Photo: Reuters)