BAGHDAD (Reuters) – A church massacre and a series of bombs in Shi’ite areas of Baghdad in the past days may indicate that Iraq’s Sunni Islamist insurgency is staging a resurgence.

But, while an al Qaeda-linked group claimed responsibility for taking more than 100 hostages in the Syrian Catholic cathedral in the Iraqi capital on Sunday, it has yet to do the same for Tuesday’s blizzard of explosions.

In addition, assertions by the Islamic State of Iraq that the church siege was aimed at Egypt’s Coptic church and not Iraq’s Shi’ite-led authorities added a new dimension to the Iraqi insurgency.

Are there signs of an al Qaeda resurgence in Iraq?

The long tussle for power between incumbent Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, a Shi’ite, and the Sunni-backed Iraqiya alliance of former premier Iyad Allawi has laid bare the lingering sectarian divide despite a sharp fall in overall violence.

“The recent explosions are a result of the political and constitutional vacuum and the delay in forming a government,” Foreign Minister Hoshiyar Zebari said on Wednesday. “These provide opportunities for killers to attack the innocent.”

Minority Sunnis who fear the country’s main Shi’ite-led blocs might sideline the coalition they voted for may feel more inclined to support the insurgency again.

BAGHDAD (Reuters) – The Pentagon is considering controls like those credit card firms use to detect anomalous behaviour to prevent leaks of sensitive information like the one which led to the WikiLeaks data dump on the Iraq war, a senior U.S. official said on Tuesday.

Deputy Defense Secretary William Lynn said the leak of nearly 400,000 U.S. classified field reports on the war has presented the U.S. military with a dilemma — how to better protect information without denying soldiers the real-time battlefield intelligence they need to win wars.

“Rather than preventing people from having access to the data, could we do things like credit card companies do, which is to look for anomalous behaviour,” Lynn told reporters during a brief visit to Iraq.

“If someone is doing something that doesn’t seem appropriate for where they are, downloading 100,000 documents when they are out in some obscure corner of the country, why are they doing that? You go out and ask them.”

Lynn said monitoring access to and the use of battlefield reports and other classified documents seemed like common sense, but added: “I don’t think we’re doing enough of it frankly”.

WikiLeaks said the documents it released last week detailed the deaths of 15,000 more Iraqi civilians than the U.S. military had reported. It said they also revealed widespread cases of torture and prisoner abuse by Iraqi security forces that U.S. commanders knew about but did not investigate.

The United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights called on Tuesday for a U.S. probe, saying the files indicated U.S. authorities knew detainees were being tortured, but continued to transfer thousands to Iraqi custody.

BAGHDAD (Reuters) – Talks on a coalition government have come full circle in Iraq six months after an election that produced no clear winner and which has pitted a Sunni-backed alliance against the country’s main Shi’ite-led factions.

A resolution to the impasse appears as distant as ever as politicians fight over top positions, in particular that of prime minister, and public impatience, despair and disillusionment with Iraq’s democratic experiment are mounting.

Attacks by Sunni Islamist insurgents seeking to exploit the vacuum and to whip up mistrust in the security forces after the end to U.S. combat operations on Aug. 31 continue unabated.

Suicide assaults and assassinations of officials and anti-al Qaeda militia leaders are stoking fears of a return to broader violence just as Iraq emerges from the worst of the bloodshed and chaos set off after the 2003 U.S.-led invasion.

The incumbent prime minister, Nuri al-Maliki, whose State of Law coalition came second in the March 7 election with 89 seats in the 325-seat parliament, has remained steadfast in his aim to win a second term. But some of his Shi’ite allies remain equally determined to oppose him.

The vote leader, ex-premier Iyad Allawi’s cross-sectarian but Sunni-backed Iraqiya alliance, has also been unable to gain a governing majority. Iraqiya won 91 seats.

The Shi’ite-led Iraqi National Alliance, which includes the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council (ISCI) and fiery anti-American cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, recently nominated former vice president Adel Abdul-Mahdi for prime minister, challenging Maliki’s bid.

BAGHDAD (Reuters) – The U.S. military formally ends combat operations in Iraq on Tuesday as President Barack Obama seeks to fulfill a promise to end the war despite persistent instability and attacks that kill dozens at a time.

U.S. troop numbers were cut to 50,000 in advance of the August 31 milestone in the 7-1/2-year-old war launched by Obama’s predecessor, George W. Bush, whose stated aim was to destroy Iraqi weapons of mass destruction. No such weapons was found.

The six remaining U.S. military brigades will turn their focus to training and advising Iraqi police and troops as Iraq takes on responsibility for its own destiny ahead of a full withdrawal of U.S. forces by the end of next year.

“The story is not about 50,000. The story is that we are continuing to be committed to Iraq, but our commitment is going to change,” the outgoing U.S. military commander in Iraq, General Raymond Odierno, said last week.

“It’s no longer one that is focused solely on a military commitment. We are building a different relationship with Iraq, one that’s focused on economic development, one that’s focused on technological development, one that’s focused on political development and cultural development.”

Obama promised war-weary U.S. voters he would extricate the United States from the Iraq war. Almost 1 trillion dollars have been spent, and more than 4,400 U.S. soldiers and over 100,000 Iraqi civilians killed since the 2003 invasion.

Obama’s Democratic party is battling to retain control of Congress in elections in November. Vice President Joe Biden flew into Baghdad on Monday.

BAGHDAD (Reuters) – The U.S. military formally ends combat operations in Iraq on Tuesday, closing what it hopes will have been the bloodiest and costliest chapters of the war launched 7-1/2 years ago by former President George W. Bush.

The milestone, marked by cuts in U.S. troop numbers to below 50,000, allows President Barack Obama to fulfill a pledge to start ending the deeply unpopular war as his fellow Democrats seek to retain control of Congress in elections in November.

Here are some questions and answers on how Iraq might fare as U.S. troops depart:

* How stable is Iraq now?

Iraq is in a precarious state as it starts to chart its own path before a full U.S. withdrawal by end-2011.

Iraqi factions, split by years of bloodshed between majority Shi’ites and once dominant Sunnis, have yet to agree on a new government almost six months after an inconclusive election.

Insurgents tied to al Qaeda continue to launch frequent attacks, spreading an air of peril and sowing doubts about the imperfect democracy bestowed on Iraq by the U.S. invaders.

BAGHDAD (Reuters) – The end of U.S. combat operations this month places the onus of ensuring security squarely on Iraqi leaders, even though they have yet to form a new government almost six months after an election.

Continued divisions between Shi’ite-led and Sunni-backed political factions and persistent, devastating attacks by insurgents are creating an air of peril that has kept potential non-oil investors on the sidelines.

These factors could also affect the work of oil majors which have won significant oilfield development deals.

While there are still 50,000 U.S. soldiers in the country ahead of a full withdrawal due by the end of 2011, a perception that Washington under President Barack Obama has disengaged from Iraq could worsen sectarian differences.

Iraq has muddled on without a new government since the March 7 parliamentary vote that produced no clear winner.

Public sector salaries are being paid, the army and police continue to fight the Sunni Islamist insurgency and counter Shi’ite militias, and small development projects already in the pipeline are being pursued.

Projects Iraq has signed with energy majors such as BP and Lukoil that could more than quadruple oil output in seven years are moving ahead slowly.

BAGHDAD, Aug 19 (Reuters) – The U.S. military is on track to cut numbers in Iraq to 50,000 by end August, when the 7-1/2-year combat mission launched by former President George W. Bush ends and operations switch to assisting Iraq’s armed forces.

The 4th Stryker Brigade, 2nd Infantry Division, the last brigade mainly focused on combat, handed over to Iraqi forces on Aug. 7 and pulls out this week. Its 100-strong “trail party” will leave in three days after turning over facilities.

Another 6,000 U.S. soldiers still need to leave by transport aircraft or by road before Aug. 31 to reach the 50,000 figure President Barack Obama promised U.S. voters would be left ahead of a total withdrawal by the end of 2011.

“My personal experience is it was worth it. We paid a huge cost,” said Staff Sergeant Christopher Hush from the First Battalion of the 116th Infantry regiment which headed to Kuwait earlier this week.

There will be little actual change on the ground come Sept. 1 when all six brigades left in Iraq officially become “Advise and Assist” units, said Major General Stephen Lanza, the U.S. military spokesman in Iraq.

Most U.S. military units began switching their focus to training and assisting Iraqi troops and police over a year ago when they pulled out of Iraqi towns and cities on June 30, 2009.

U.S. forces have not been legally able to conduct unilateral operations in Iraq since a bilateral security agreement came into force in January 2009, and the U.S. military began a steady cut in troop numbers, from a peak of 176,000 soldiers. “Every soldier is a combat soldier. It’s about the change of mission. It doesn’t change who we are or what we do,” Lanza said. “You won’t see this big change on 2 September.”

BAGHDAD (Reuters) – The U.S. military is holding steady in its aim to reduce troop numbers in Iraq to 50,000 by August 31, when the 7-1/2 year U.S. combat mission launched by former President George W. Bush comes to an official close.

The last U.S. brigade officially classed as a combat unit formally handed over responsibilities to its Iraqi counterparts on August 7, but U.S. troops have been steadily flowing out of the country on transport aircraft and by road for a year.

“My personal experience is it was worth it. We paid a huge cost,” said Staff Sergeant Christopher Hush from the First Battalion of the 116th Infantry regiment which pulled out to Kuwait earlier this week.

U.S. media said on Wednesday the last U.S. combat troops had left Iraq, but U.S. officials clarified there were still 56,000 U.S. soldiers in Iraq, so the reduction to 50,000 non-combat troops by September 1 promised by President Barack Obama still has a some way to go.

There will actually be little change on the ground in the U.S. military mission in Iraq come September 1 as most U.S. military units began switching their focus to training and assisting Iraqi troops and police more than a year ago when they pulled out of Iraqi urban centers on June 30, 2009.

Much of the U.S. war materiel and many of the soldiers departing Iraq are being redeployed to Afghanistan, where NATO forces are fighting a resurgent Taliban.

The end of the U.S. combat mission in Iraq will mark a milestone in the war that began in 2003 with the invasion to topple Sunni dictator Saddam Hussein, whose long rule was marked by an eight-year war with Iran, the invasion of Kuwait and economic decline and diplomatic isolation.

BAGHDAD (Reuters) – Political tensions rose last month with the cancellation of two scheduled sessions of parliament, an indication Iraq’s squabbling factions are no closer to a deal on a new government.

Nearly five months after a March 7 parliamentary vote that produced no clear winner, Sunni, Shi’ite and Kurdish political blocs have been unable to decide who should be prime minister, the major hurdle toward the formation of a ruling coalition.

The long delay could pour fuel on volatile sectarian differences after two large Shi’ite electoral blocs formed a tenuous parliamentary union that could push aside the Sunni-backed coalition that narrowly won the election.

But there are no signs the Shi’ite union has been able to overcome differences on the premiership to solidify a majority.

More delays could thwart U.S. plans to end combat operations in August, although Washington has given no indication it would alter its troop withdrawal schedule.

Iraq, which has the world’s third largest oil reserves, has signed contracts with energy majors such as BP and Lukoil that could more than quadruple oil output in seven years. Those projects are moving ahead, even without a new government.

Investors outside the oil sector remain wary.

BAGHDAD, Aug 2 (Reuters) – Political tensions rose last month with the cancellation of two scheduled sessions of parliament, an indication Iraq’s squabbling factions are no closer to a deal on a new government. Nearly five months after a March 7 parliamentary vote that produced no clear winner, Sunni, Shi’ite and Kurdish political blocs have been unable to decide who should be prime minister, the major hurdle toward the formation of a ruling coalition. The long delay could pour fuel on volatile sectarian differences after two large Shi’ite electoral blocs formed a tenuous parliamentary union that could push aside the Sunni-backed coalition that narrowly won the election. But there are no signs the Shi’ite union has been able to overcome differences on the premiership to solidify a majority. More delays could thwart U.S. plans to end combat operations in August, although Washington has given no indication it would alter its troop withdrawal schedule. Iraq, which has the world’s third largest oil reserves, has signed contracts with energy majors such as BP and Lukoil that could more than quadruple oil output in seven years. Those projects are moving ahead, even without a new government. Investors outside the oil sector remain wary. Iraq is largely isolated from world financial markets. Only a short while ago, local banks were so cut off the only way to transfer money across borders was in cash-stuffed bags. Today, Iraq has little credit. Only a few dozen companies are listed on the local stock market. The Iraqi dinar IQD= is lightly traded. One place to take a punt from afar on Iraq’s future is its Eurobond IQ024029557= XS0240295575=R. Below are some of the major risks facing Iraq more than seven years after U.S. troops toppled Saddam Hussein. POLITICAL SQUABBLING, POWER VACUUM Twice in July Iraqi lawmakers postponed scheduled sessions of parliament, a troublesome sign of the depth of the divisions over Iraq’s top posts — prime minister, president and speaker. Because no single bloc won a majority in Iraq’s 325-member parliament, coalition talks are key to forming a government. The Iraqiya bloc led by former Prime Minister Iyad Allawi, a secular Shi’ite with wide support among the Sunni minority, took 91 seats in the election, two more than Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki’s State of Law bloc. The Iraqi National Alliance, a Shi’ite bloc which includes anti-American cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, took 70 seats, while a Kurdish alliance picked up 43. Maliki, a Shi’ite who built his reputation on a claim to have rescued Iraq from civil war, is seeking a second term. But his ambitions are being opposed by some erstwhile Shi’ite allies despite the merger of Iraq’s two main Shi’ite groups into the National Alliance, which is just four seats short of a working majority. The extended delay in forming a government is causing serious concern. Barham Salih, the prime minister of Iraqi Kurdistan, called it an "embarrassment" in a recent interview with Reuters and said it must be resolved quickly. But some Iraqi politicians are now saying it may have to wait until after Ramadan, which means mid-September or later. The delay could undermine security, while marginalising Iraqiya could anger Sunnis, just as U.S. troops prepare to leave. President Barack Obama, focused on a growing conflict in Afghanistan, plans to cut current troop strength of 65,000 to 50,000 by Sept. 1 ahead of a full pullout by the end of 2011. What to watch: — If sectarian or political violence flares, as it did during the five months it took to form a government after 2005 parliamentary polls. — Parliament, which cannot function without a government, fails to pass investment legislation already delayed by years of political squabbling, sending a poor signal to firms interested in Iraq but worried about legal risks and an opaque bureaucracy. A RETURN TO MAJOR VIOLENCE Iraq is far less violent than when sectarian killings peaked in 2006-07. Maliki takes credit for security gains, but a U.S. troop rise and Sunni militia cooperation also played a big part. Since March, Iraqi forces backed by U.S. troops have scored major victories against local al Qaeda groups, including the killings on April 18 of al Qaeda’s leader in Iraq, Abu Ayyub al-Masri, and Abu Omar al-Baghdadi, the purported head of its affiliate, the Islamic State of Iraq. Yet Sunni Islamist insurgents, who the government says are in cahoots with Saddam’s Baath party, still stage attacks. In June, insurgents staged brazen bombings at the Central Bank and the Trade Bank of Iraq, seeking out economic targets in what officials said was an attempt to derail investment. A disruption in early July of oil flow through the pipeline carrying Iraqi crude to Turkey was blamed on Kurdish rebels. Political feuds, Sunni discontent or an attack on a holy site or a clerical leader could all spark renewed violence, as could any Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities. Such an attack might prompt Shi’ite militias to retaliate against U.S. forces in Iraq. Any major violence will push up prices on global oil markets CLc1, especially if it appears set to persist. What to watch: — Attacks on oil facilities or staff. Iraq’s efforts to secure investment could be derailed by attacks on foreigners. — Signs that U.S. forces are changing withdrawal plans. — Iraqi security forces are vulnerable to infiltration and some key ministries are still politicised. Iraq’s military still relies on U.S. troops for air support and forensics. KURD-ARAB CONFLICT Tensions between Arabs and minority Kurds, who have enjoyed virtual autonomy in their northern enclave for almost 20 years, are festering. Kurds suffered massacres in Saddam’s era, but have gained unprecedented influence since 2003 and hope to reclaim areas they deem historically Kurdish. Others in disputed areas complain Kurds have exploited their new-found prominence at the expense of Arabs and Turkmen. At the centre of the impasse is Kirkuk, the northern province that sits on an estimated 4 percent of world oil reserves. What to watch: — Clashes between the army and Kurdish Peshmerga forces. — Any breakthrough on oil. Iraqi Kurdistan, which estimates its oil reserves at 45 billion barrels, has signed deals with foreign firms that the Iraqi Oil Ministry labels illegal. — Any resumed exports from Kurdish fields, halted because of the dispute, would be positive. Iraq’s cabinet approved in May a deal that would allow exports, but they have not resumed. — Passage of modern oil legislation, held up for years because of the Kurd-Arab feud. The delay has not deterred oil majors, but potential investors in other sectors view the laws as an indicator of stability and friendliness to business. NEW AUTHORITARIANISM Iraq’s democratic experiment is important in a region where leaders often leave office only in a "coffin or coup". Attempts to overturn Iraqiya’s lead after the vote suggest that a democratic culture is still only skin deep. Many Iraqis believe their country needs a strong ruler. Western powers would be unlikely to stand by if a military coup installed a leader hostile to their interests. What to watch: — Any constitutional changes that would allow leaders to amass power or remain in office. * For political risks to watch in other countries, please click on [ID:EMEARISK] (Additional reporting by Missy Ryan; Editing by Samia Nakhoul)