Weekly Radar: Q4 earnings, China GDP and German elections
The first wave of Q4 US earnings, Chinese Q4 GDP and European inflation dominate next week, while regional polls in Germany’s Lower Saxony the following Sunday give everyone a early peek at ideas surrounding probably the biggest general election of 2013 later in the year.
With a bullish start to the year already confirmed by the so-called “5 day rule” on Wall St, we now come to the first real test – the Q4 earnings season. There was nothing to rock the boat from Alcoa but we will only start to get a glimpse of the overall picture next week after the big financials like JPM, Citi and Goldman report as well as real sector bellwethers Intel and GE. Yet again the questions centre on how the slow-growth macro world is sapping top lines, how this can continue to be offset by cost cutting to flatter profits and – perhaps most importantly for investors right now – what’s already in the price.
Five-day rule flashes green on market’s ‘Groundhog Day’
LONDON (Reuters) – Seasonal bellwether or just hocus pocus, the first five trading days bode well for 2013.
Given the often unfathomable global risks facing investors at the start of any new year, it’s not hard to see the temptation of a few rules of thumb to parse the next 12 months.
Analysis: Five-day rule flashes green on market’s “Groundhog Day”
LONDON (Reuters) – Seasonal bellwether or just hocus pocus, the first five trading days bode well for 2013.
Given the often unfathomable global risks facing investors at the start of any new year, it’s not hard to see the temptation of a few rules of thumb to parse the next 12 months.
Central banks still hold all the cards
LONDON, Jan 4 (Reuters) – If the opening salvos of 2013 tell
investors anything, it’s to keep their eyes fixed on the world’s
central banks rather than its more volatile politicians or even
spluttering economies.
Given the U.S. Federal Reserve’s latest musings on Thursday
about how long it can safely sustain its current super-easy
monetary policy, that’s not as unambiguously positive as it
proved over the past 18 months.
Weekly Radar: From fiscal cliff to fiscal tiff…
The new year starts with a markets ‘whoosh’, thanks to some form of detente in DC — though this one was already motoring in 2012. The New Year’s Eve rally was the biggest final day gain in the S&P500 since 1974, for what it’s worth. And for investment almanac obsessives, Wednesday’s 2%+ gains are a good start to so-called “five-day-rule”, where net gains in the S&P500 over the first five trading days of the year have led to a positive year for equity year overall on 87 percent of 62 years since 1950.
So do we have a fiscal green light stateside for global investors? Or does it just lead us all to another precipice in two months time? Well, markets seem to have voted loudly for the former so far. And to the extent that at least some bi-partisan progress reduces the risk of policy accident and renewed recession, then that’s justified. And Wall St’s relief went global and viral, with eurostocks up almost 3% and emerging markets up over 2% on Wednesday. Even the febrile bond markets sat up and took notice, with core US and German yields jumping higher while riskier Italian and Spanish yields skidded to their lowest in several months.
Investment Focus: Destination 2013? China, Japan, BRICs
LONDON (Reuters) – With a whiff of global recovery in the air and central bank liquidity abundant, investors in 2013 are packing their bags for China, fellow ‘BRICs’ Brazil and Russia, long-dormant Japan and even some Mediterranean sun.
Of course, seeking consensus on the top country destinations for the year ahead is hardly an exact science.
Destination 2013? China, Japan, BRICs and Med
LONDON, Dec 21 (Reuters) – With a whiff of global recovery
in the air and central bank liquidity abundant, investors in
2013 are packing their bags for China, fellow ‘BRICs’ Brazil and
Russia, long-dormant Japan and even some Mediterranean sun.
Of course, seeking consensus on the top country destinations
for the year ahead is hardly an exact science.
So much uncertainty, so little volatility
LONDON, Dec 14 (Reuters) – Equating economic uncertainty
with financial market volatility this year would have been a
dangerous game.
Perhaps the biggest theme of 2012 for many asset managers
was how waves of monetary policy easing from the world’s big
central banks smothered market volatility – even as everyone
frets about slowing growth and earnings, recession and inflation
threats, and ongoing sovereign debt and banking nightmares.
Weekly Radar: Elections and housing in last big week of 2012
So an extra dose of medicine from the Fed on Wednesday helps smother global market volatility further into the yearend — even though naming an explicit 6.5% unemployment rate could well send Treasury bond volatility soaring as the current 7.7% rate likely approaches that level in 2014 just as the Fed low-rate pledge expires. Not a story for early next year maybe, but…
More nose-against-the-windshield, the busy end to this week – with the EU Summit today and December’s flash PMIs tomorrow – makes it difficult to clear the decks yet for yearend — at least not as much as market pricing and volumes would suggest. Moves to some form of EU banking union are already in the mix from Brussels, however, so another plus at the margins perhaps.
More pressure on global wages could backfire
LONDON (Reuters) – If rising income gaps are at least partly responsible for the global credit crisis, governments and companies should be wary of squeezing wages yet again to help rebuild their finances.
In the long buildup to the global financial crisis, households took on debt to offset the gradual fall in their incomes and consumption relative to the more wealthy.

