Comments on: The new international economic disorder http://blogs.reuters.com/mohamed-el-erian/2011/12/21/the-new-international-economic-disorder/ Mohamed Mondays Mon, 30 Mar 2015 23:53:19 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=4.2.5 By: dr.bob http://blogs.reuters.com/mohamed-el-erian/2011/12/21/the-new-international-economic-disorder/#comment-400 Sun, 01 Jan 2012 21:27:05 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/mohamed-el-erian/?p=150#comment-400 One more thought. Read that USA exported more oil than it imported in 2011. Why are we increasing our debt by interfering in Eastern Affairs? You are right, we are broke! In more ways than one.

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By: dr.bob http://blogs.reuters.com/mohamed-el-erian/2011/12/21/the-new-international-economic-disorder/#comment-399 Sun, 01 Jan 2012 21:21:58 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/mohamed-el-erian/?p=150#comment-399 And that is why Ron Paul makes the most sense. IN the 80’s 1.5 yuan to 1 dollar. Devalued to 8.5 to 1. Jobs left with the currency change. Today 6.3 to 1. The jobs will return with a sound ” fiatless” currency.

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By: txgadfly http://blogs.reuters.com/mohamed-el-erian/2011/12/21/the-new-international-economic-disorder/#comment-398 Sun, 01 Jan 2012 17:52:08 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/mohamed-el-erian/?p=150#comment-398 The real sea change in Western countries, especially in the USA, is that Government is coming to be seen as predatory and hostile to its own population. This change is simply dismissed by the power elite but is nonetheless very real.

The days of US Government fleecing of the American people for money to export or for the benefit of their corporate economic partners are over. Since the political system appears to be incapable of adjusting to a reduced supply of victims in the USA, supply and demand will lead to continuing decline in Government revenues and increasingly dangerous social disorder. There is a danger that, since we are following a Third World social policy, that we will get a Third World military coup to slow the deterioration. US representative government is failing and failing badly.

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By: slowsmile http://blogs.reuters.com/mohamed-el-erian/2011/12/21/the-new-international-economic-disorder/#comment-397 Sun, 01 Jan 2012 05:38:31 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/mohamed-el-erian/?p=150#comment-397 What would perhaps help would be to look at this problem from the Mercantilists point of view, since all global trade is merely a fine balance between the rising Mercantilists surplus export countries and the Western consumer debt behemoths. What is apparent is that the Debtors of the West, particularly America, are completely intransigent towards any change or a leveling of the trade playing field. For too long, America has led the economic field, not by her export surplus trade like the rest, but by simply exporting dollars in a free-credit-forever economic philosophy that has substituted for any worthwhil trade surplus over the last 30 or so years.

As a result of such, and because of the poignant need for perpetual trade advantage and dominance, America, quite naturally only eer blames the Mercantilist countries for this imbalances problem — while completely ignoring criticism of the insignificant symbiotic involvement of America’s now miniscule manufacturing uncompetitiveness — thereby absolving any necessity for America’s equally gross part in causing these “world imbalances”.

As a result, and for longer than the past 4 years, China and the BRICs and other mercantilist blocks have steadily been slowly eroding away and untangling from their own forced dependencies to buy US Treasuries.

People may well laugh and scoff at this — but only this week, China, India and Japan have all entered into massive currency swap arrangements in order to avoid the the vagaries of the selfish and lazy dollar. This action is very harsh comment on the trade dollar and, of course, represents a deliberate downward accrual purchase-rate of US Treasuries from three of the biggest Mercantilists on the planet. This action will of course affect America’s much needed free credit/debt supply from foreign nations as a much needed surrogate for a proper trade surplus. So if America cannot successfully counter and up this rate of purchase of her Treasuries, then I am afraid that the days of the US Dollar as the untouchable world reserve hegemon are now sadly numbered.

So far, America has been completely unable to bend these foreign exporter upstarts and holders of US Treasuries to her will. Squirm and moan as she might, America cannot rat out on the fact that she has so willingly, wilfully and delibrately accrued so much foreign and internal debt — which has been equally balanced by massive amounts of US Treasuries held in excess by such countries as China — who have accrued all these savings by simple trading, whereas America accrues her own creaky surplus credit by printing…printing…printing.

For some western economists, these notable American economic policies are fair and normal. Trouble is that these Mercantilists, now much stronger, are using all the monetary methods and precedents set by America against her now — so how can America dare to complain?

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By: Bob9999 http://blogs.reuters.com/mohamed-el-erian/2011/12/21/the-new-international-economic-disorder/#comment-394 Wed, 28 Dec 2011 20:46:40 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/mohamed-el-erian/?p=150#comment-394 “For decades, many people lamented the extent to which the West dominated the global economic system. From the governance of multilateral organizations to the design of financial services, the global infrastructure was seen as favoring Western interests. While there was much talk of reform, Western countries repeatedly countered serious efforts that would result in meaningful erosion of their entitlements.”

Well, of course. This “global economic system” was really the aggregation of what various countries (primarily Western) had done to further their own best interests. Similarly, the various “multilateral organizations” were created by various countries (again, primarily Western) to avoid conflict, which basically means to preserve the status quo. That’s what institutions do.

“Advocates envisaged an orderly process in which economic convergence accompanied and facilitated global economic growth. They foresaw a collaborative process guided by enlightened policymaking. But what is occurring is far different and more unpredictable.”

Anyone who thought that was unrealistic. Anytime a complex system (chemical, economic, etc.) changes from one state of equilibrium to another, the transition involves a period volatility and upredictability. The faster the transition happens, the more chaotic it appears. It’s normal.

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By: American213 http://blogs.reuters.com/mohamed-el-erian/2011/12/21/the-new-international-economic-disorder/#comment-393 Wed, 28 Dec 2011 01:19:44 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/mohamed-el-erian/?p=150#comment-393 A well written article, with a lot to read between the lines.

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By: DavidSibbald http://blogs.reuters.com/mohamed-el-erian/2011/12/21/the-new-international-economic-disorder/#comment-392 Thu, 22 Dec 2011 22:35:17 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/mohamed-el-erian/?p=150#comment-392 ref comment form Anthonykovic

Reuters you really must try and get racist wankers like Anthonykovic away from your site

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By: tangibleb2b http://blogs.reuters.com/mohamed-el-erian/2011/12/21/the-new-international-economic-disorder/#comment-391 Thu, 22 Dec 2011 16:30:53 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/mohamed-el-erian/?p=150#comment-391 Mr. El-Erian,
Good article,I find it interesting that from such a defined explination of the facts surrounding the global demise from West to East; we continue to see the conclusion… it’s all going to work out for the western countries. The majority of western civilization debt is equal to or greater than their GDP. More importantly they have NO answers and are not taking steps to change the underling problems.We as Americans need to open our eyes and start to understand where we are headed. our current debt is over 15 trillion and our future liabilities for ONLY Medicare and Social Security exceed 116 trillion. With no answers on the table to even adress these issues we as a Nation continue to spiral out of control.

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By: robinson99 http://blogs.reuters.com/mohamed-el-erian/2011/12/21/the-new-international-economic-disorder/#comment-390 Thu, 22 Dec 2011 10:40:56 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/mohamed-el-erian/?p=150#comment-390 Since Tony Blair won his first election we have assumed a culture of entitlement. The thriving Eastern economies guaranteed for 15 years low inflation and low prices. With lax credit, we went on a binge. We believed Gordon Brown’s “End of Boom and Bust”. This lulled the UK (other Western countries had similar narratives)into a false sense of security. We had to become more competitive to maintain our living standards. Only in Germany did increased productivity go hand in hand with a refusal to spend or pay the citizens more. A hierarchical corporate dominated culture that has its own historical specificity. For three terms of the Labour government we did nothing. Gordon brown was more interested in securing number 10 than facing unpleasant truths, which might have jeopardised his premiership. It is not true that nobody saw it coming. I did. The trouble was did not want to accept that we have to work harder, more productively to earn a lot less.

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By: DanielCrickett http://blogs.reuters.com/mohamed-el-erian/2011/12/21/the-new-international-economic-disorder/#comment-389 Thu, 22 Dec 2011 05:19:05 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/mohamed-el-erian/?p=150#comment-389 In Europe, “the policy-makers have merely transfered liabilities from the private sector to the public sector.” I.E. – A European Bailout, which European taxpayers end up paying instead of the banks. Boy, this sounds familiar!!!! American banks make trillions of dollars in reckless loans, then pass the tab to the unsuspecting taxpayers. They did it twice in the 1980’s with the Savings and Loans, and then 2002 – 2008 with the sub-prime mortgages and secondary mortgage markets. Wonder why banks are doing so badly? Tisk… Tisk… I think a shed a little crocodile tear… Where is a guillotine when you need one?!!!!

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