By Mohamed El-Erian
The opinions expressed are his own.
The 14.3 percent quarterly loss in the S&P, a widely-followed index for the largest stock market in the world, was its worst performance since the fourth quarter of 2008 — a particularly bad omen given the additional market collapse that followed in the first quarter of 2009 and that brought the world to the brink of a global economic depression. Meanwhile, market and economic narratives are dominated even more now by words such as alarm, anxiety, worry and, to quote from the latest Federal Reserve statement, “significant downside risk.”
Is all this an exaggeration? Are markets stuck in an irrational cycle of self-feeding fear? Is the volatility, including eye-popping intra-day swings, just a head fake?
As much as I would like to say yes — after all, the balance sheets and income statements of multinational companies are still rock solid — the answer is no. The system is sending signals rather than making noise. It is warning about the highly uncertain and rapidly deteriorating outlook for the global economy; also, it is lamenting astonishingly inept policy-making in far too many western economies.
I know exactly how many feel. At an event last week in Washington, I was asked about my feelings about the global economy. My response was “between concerned and scared.”