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Dec 19, 2011 02:27 EST

D H Pai Panandiker

from Expert Zone:

Stock market under stress

(The views expressed in this column are the author's own and do not represent those of Reuters)

The first big jolt to the market after the 2008 crisis had come last August when FIIs disinvested 95 billion rupees worth of equity and moved into liquid assets. That brought the Sensex down by 1500 points and pulled the dollar up by 4 rupees.

The FIIs wanted to reduce their risk which had been heightened by the EU crisis. It was not Greece alone but even Italy, the third largest European economy, which was in danger of sovereign debt default. These governments could borrow only at interest rates over 7 pct, about 2 pct more than the average rate for EU countries.

Undoubtedly, the prospects for the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) were grim and there could have been sheer chaos had a weak state like Greece or a strong state like Germany left the Union. France and Germany did finally persuade other members to accept fiscal consolidation and establish a permanent bailout fund. An early agreement failed mainly because of the veto exercised by Britain. Hence, a new treaty will have to be signed which is not likely before March.

The promise of a new treaty was not enough to create confidence among investors in the solidarity of the EU or the European banking system. For that reason the recovery of world markets did not come through. The BSE Sensex hardly changed its mood and, with the added fear created by the 5 pct fall in industrial production, declined further.

There were triggers that could have kicked up stock prices. A good opportunity for market recovery was lost when the government almost withdrew the earlier amendment to facilitate FDI in retail. With a fractured parliament and undependable allies, it is unlikely that any major reform will come through before the elections in Uttar Pradesh.

The next budget can be a trigger but is unlikely to be one. For, the kind of pressure under which it is at present requires the finance minister to seek approval to borrow another 550 billion rupees, mainly to fund subsidies. As such, it may be difficult to even maintain the fiscal deficit at 4.6 pct as provided in the last budget.

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Dec 13, 2011 06:00 EST

Rajiv Bajaj

from Expert Zone:

2012 – Boom or Doom?

(The views expressed in this column are the author's own and do not represent those of Reuters)

What a year 2011 has been. Except certain commodities such as gold and oil, every other asset class has been hit. With Sensex down more than 20 pct YTD, 10 year g-sec yields up by almost 1 pct and rupee down by almost 14 pct against the dollar, it has been a poor year for investors. This was caused by a bout of strong global risk aversion led by the European sovereign debt crisis, high inflation in emerging markets and consequent monetary tightening, and lack of proper policy action in India. The only salvation came from commodities such as oil (up almost 26 pct in rupee terms) and gold (up almost 38 pct in rupee terms).

Are any of these likely to continue haunting us in 2012? Or will there be a new set of problems? Is the worst already behind us? That's the million dollar question on everybody's mind. The irony is few of us, if at all, have the right answers. Still based on evidence available today, one can hazard a guess.

What does 2012 have in store for the investor? There is no doubt that growth has slowed down. The poor industrial growth numbers over the last quarter and the latest second quarter real GDP growth of 6.9 pct (manufacturing growth was a mere 2.7 pct whereas mining output contracted) drive the point home.

Is it going to change in a hurry? Seems improbable. After all, more than a year of continuous rate hikes should have taken its toll on growth. And to top it up, inflation is yet to subside at least on a year on year basis, even though that is not the best way to look at it. The fall in the rupee hasn't helped either, exacerbating the already high trade deficit and inflation by making imports costlier.

But aren't we pricing it all in? Aren't equity valuations cheap and yields already near 2008 highs? True. But stocks can get cheaper still? Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. Remember, we are still looking at Sensex valuations with respect to FY13 earnings which price in a 16-17 pct growth over FY12. Whereas FY12 earnings growth is already being revised down to 10 pct, expected FY13 growth can be downgraded further if macro indicators worsen. Also, the Sensex earnings yield (basis forward PE of 13-13.5 as per FY13 earnings estimate) at approx 7.5 pct is still short (approx 0.8 pct) of the one year bond yield. Historically, equity markets have come out of a bear phase once Sensex earnings yields have been higher than bond yields by more than approx 50 pct i.e. the ratio between Sensex forward earnings yield and bond yields has been around 1.5. On this basis, valuations seem to be in a fair zone rather than being screaming cheap. For Sensex yields to become 1.5 times of bond yields today either the Sensex will have to be de-rated further or the bond yields will have to come down significantly. It is unlikely that either of these events happen in isolation. Rather a combination of both, i.e. a price or time correction in stocks coupled with the bond yields coming off significantly seems to be a more plausible scenario going ahead.

The initial part of the year 2012 (probably the first half) thus might continue to see high volatility as a result of the above. But as we move to the latter half of 2012, things should start improving. Bond yields are most likely to have come down quite some distance by that time (assuming that inflation moderates -- month on month growth momentum in core WPI inflation is already showing signs of slowing down -- and RBI starts cutting rates) and equities should be available at a real bargain by then. The second half of 2012 should thus be much better than the first.

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Dec 12, 2011 03:52 EST

Nipun Mehta

from Expert Zone:

Sensex: Key takeaways from 2011

2011 | indian equity market | nipun mehta | Sensex

(Nipun Mehta is an award-winning private banker with many years of experience across Asia. The views expressed in the column are his own and not those of Reuters)

About a year back in November, we were at the highest ever level of the Sensex with hopes of moving higher. A year hence, as we inch closer to the end of 2011, the Sensex has fallen more than 26 pct from its peak, and then recovered a bit.

In the interim, there have been bouts of volatility, long periods of dull range-bound movements, and a lot of events and learnings from the domestic and international markets.

The biggest learning in the last year has been for the present generation of investors who would not have seen such a long period of stock market underperformance and for whom the definition of long-term has changed. For those who started investing after 2003, the last three years have been an excruciating period yielding seriously negative returns. Most of these portfolios are still a few years away from returning to green. The key lesson is, short-term is out and long-term is in, with long-term to be defined as more than three years.

The other key learning during 2011 has been for the Indian corporate sector, where some hardly ever hedged their forex exposure. It was largely perceived by these companies that the rupee would remain stable and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) would intervene whenever there were sudden bouts of currency inflows or outflows.

This prevented several mid-sized companies from taking a forex cover with the objective of saving costs. After losing significant sums during 2011 on account of foreign currency fluctuations, risk management for forex has all of a sudden become the buzzword for companies that have foreign currency exposure. The corporate sector is unlikely to take the currency fluctuations for granted any longer.

It is gradually becoming apparent that after a few years of excellent domestic economic growth, even when the global economy was struggling, the growth momentum for an 8 pct (or thereabouts) GDP growth for the country cannot be taken for granted any more. Estimates for closer to 7 pct GDP growth for 2011-12 have already been announced by rating agencies. The decision paralysis and governance deficit within the government is at an unanticipated new low and threatens to pull down GDP for 2011-12 to 6.5 pct levels. The greater threat, however, is for the Indian corporate sector -- starting to look overseas for expansion rather than investing in India, a far cry from the 'India shining' story that used to pull large investments from other countries into India.

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