Money on the markets
A maturing market amid the mayhem
from Expert Zone:
India Market Weekahead – Volatile market within a narrow range
(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)
A sharper-than-expected cut of 50 basis points in the repo rate boosted the benchmark indices early during the week. However, as expected, the Nifty could not gain higher than 5350 as apprehensions about the limited scope of further rate cuts suppressed sentiment.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) sounded cautious as recent growth trends indicate the economy is operating below its post-crisis levels. We anticipate a very limited scope for further reduction in policy rates going ahead as persistent liquidity deficit would make rate cuts difficult. Also the upside risk to inflation remains and further slippage on the fiscal front can aggravate inflationary pressure.
Globally, the euro zone markets also witnessed positive action following a successful bond auction by Spain and France. Appetite for these bonds during such distress times renewed some hope of revival in that region.
Reliance Industries came out with its Q4FY12 numbers after market hours on Friday. Its net profit of 42.4 billion rupees just fell short of the street estimate of 43 billion rupees, down 21 pct year-on-year. Lower production from its KGD6 offshore fields and weak refining margins dented profits. Sales, however, grew 16 pct to 878 billion rupees. Due to falling KGD6 production and weak cyclical margins, its near-term earnings are expected to remain subdued. The stock should remain sideways for some more time due to a lack of positive triggers, with the downside protected due to the ongoing buyback plan. Among cement heavyweights, Ambuja and ACC results also disappointed markets.
For the coming week, the markets are expected to remain volatile on account of derivative expiry. Some of the major corporate results -- beginning with TCS on Monday -- will remain crucial. Others include Sesa Goa, Wipro, Sterlite Industries, ICICI Bank, Axis Bank, Jindal Steel & Power, Siemens and Maruti Suzuki.
The rupee continued to be weak quoting above 52 rupees against the dollar. Though the RBI intervention in the currency market was expected to stem the fall, there doesn’t seem to be any such move. The rupee would continue to remain weak within a range. Oil prices gave some respite by correcting to $118.Closer home, with no action on increasing the retail prices of petro products, the subsidy burden continues to balloon.
LIVE BLOG: Sensex, Nifty plunge to 2011 lows
The BSE Sensex and Nifty plunged to fresh 2011 lows in Wednesday trade, a day before the expiry of derivatives contracts, amid renewed worries about faltering global growth.
Sensex gains on strong economic data
The BSE Sensex ended 2.6 percent up on Thursday on good corporate results and robust economic data.
Data released on Thursday showed infrastructure output grew 6.5 percent in June while the Wholesale Price Index fell 1.17 percent in the 12 months to July 11.
The 30-share sensitive index swung from an intra-day low of 14,843 to an intra-day high of 15,264 and closed 388 points higher at 15,231.
The fifty-share Nifty ended 2.8 percent up to 4,523.
On the sectoral front, the BSE Realty Index rose 5.08 percent, followed by the Consumer Durable Index which ended 4.4 percent higher. All other indices ended the day in the green.
Bharti Airtel came out with forecast-beating 24 percent rise in quarterly profits, while Maruti Suzuki reported an unexpected 25 percent rise in quarterly net profits.
Shares in Bharti Airtel ended 1.09 percent down at 813, while Maruti Suzuki ended 6.4 percent higher at 1295 rupees.
Sensex rose 388 points(2.61%)backed by a combination of factors viz. Maruti’s +25% and ACC’s +85% growth in profits in 1Q 2010(Y-o-Y),Infrastructure output up +6.5% in June 2009 and on reports of revival of monsoons.Sensex couldn’t have asked for a better day.
Profits have been better than expected.It is now being hoped that India Inc.will have a rerating for 2009-2010.If new ratings show high divergence from previous estimates,Sensex target could have a deserving boost.
Tomorrow is a R-day.Are any earning surprises from Reliance numbers being expected? Reliance has a peculiar trading pattern on announcement day:scrip is high in the morning but starts to crack by afternoon.
Sensex slips below 15,000; Wipro drops
The BSE Sensex erased early morning gains of over 2 percent and ended 1.46 percent down on Wednesday as weak sentiments across Asia downplayed investor sentiments.
The 30-share sensitive index swung from an intra-day high of 15,369 to an intra-day low of 14,786 and closed 219 points lower at 14,843.
The fifty-share Nifty ended 1.57 percent down to 4398.
IT and capital goods stocks saw some heavy selling while most of the other sectors pared their early gains.
On the sectoral front, the BSE Capital Goods Index dropped 1.87 percent, followed by the Auto Index which ended 1.61 percent lower. All other indices ended the day in the red.
Wipro Ltd beat estimates with a 13 percent rise in quarterly profit but joined its bigger rivals in giving a cautious forecast due to uncertainty in the global economy.
Shares in Wipro ended 1.52 percent lower at 451 rupees on the muted outlook.
Markets rose 1,791 points(13.4%)during last week so a drop of 348 points(2.30%)is hardly alarming.Call it a pause or call it profit-booking or correction,markets are looking poised to make a new 52-week high.
If Reliance announces an earning surprise in 1Q 2010 results,markets would redo Monday’s rise.
A spate of new issues starting with Adani Power IPO are ready for subscription.Afterall,Power companies are replacing Realty companies as market’s sweethearts.So to get them subscribed,we need to keep sensex buoyant.
ICICI Bank leads Sensex decline
The BSE Sensex ended 0.85 percent down on Tuesday, as investors saw an opportunity to book profits after the market rallied 13.4 percent over the past five sessions.
The 30-share sensitive index swung from an intra-day high of 15,234 to an intra-day low of 14,955 and closed 128 points lower at 15,062.
The fifty-share Nifty ended 0.74 percent down to 4,469.
The fall in the Sensex was led by ICICI Bank, ITC and Infosys.
IT stocks felt some heat after a sharp rally triggered by better-than-expected Q1 June 2009 results by TCS, India’s top software services firm by sales.
The decline in IT stocks was led by TCS which fell 4.5 percent after surging over 15 percent on Monday. Infosys dropped 1.5 percent and Wipro was down 0.46 percent.
TCS leads Sensex over 15,000
The BSE Sensex extended gains on Monday to cross the 15,000 mark as hopes of recovery in corporate earnings boosted confidence worldwide.
The 30-share sensitive index swung from an intra-day low of 14,854 to an intra-day high of 15,209 and closed 446 points higher at 15,191. The fifty-share Nifty ended 2.91 percent higher at 4502.
IT stocks rose on better-than-expected Q1 results by TCS, India’s largest IT exporter by sales, announced after trading hours on Friday. Shares in TCS ended 15.34 percent higher at 500.10 rupees.
On the sectoral front, the BSE IT Index rose 7.2 percent, followed by the Realty Index which ended 4.91 percent higher. However, the BSE FMCG Index closed 0.49 percent lower.
Shares in Reliance Industries, which challenged a lower court ruling to supply gas to Reliance Natural at below-market price, ended 5.03 percent higher, while Reliance Natural shares were down 2.6 percent.
Do you see the market uptrend continuing this week?
Sensex at 15,191 points is poised to make a new 52-week high.Sensex could hit 15,750 mark before the weekly close.
FIIs continue to drive the market.They have restarted to invest in emerging markets.India as a growth story is back into reckoning.It is being viewed less as a risky investment.
If Tisco and Suzlon GDR issues manage to get investors at a premium,more corporates will follow.
A rise in Reliance helped sensex to score a major gain today.A late buying interest in this counter showed that more juice is still left.
Sensex range bound in choppy trade
The Sensex remained volatile in trade and ended 0.08 percent lower on fears of a fall in corporate earnings for the June quarter.
IT bellwether Infosys Technologies, will kick off the earnings season on Friday.
The rupee weakened to 49/dollar, its weakest since May 18. It was down 2.2 percent on week early in opening trade.
The Wholesale Price Index fell 1.55 percent, with the primary and food article indices gaining and the fuel index remained unchanged. Manufacturing, however, slipped 0.1 pct.
The 30-share sensitive index swung from an intra-day high of 13,879 to an intra-day low of 13,643 and closed 11 points lower at 13,757. The fifty-share Nifty ended 0.05 percent higher at 4080.
On the sectoral front, the BSE Consumer Durable Index dropped 1.4 percent, followed by the Capital Goods Index which ended 1.07 percent lower. However, the BSE Metal Index closed 1.53 percent higher.
FIIs bought net $158.5 million in shares and sold $3.6 million in debt.
Today is a crucial day for sensex.Its future direction will be influenced by 1Q 2010 result announcements to be made by Infy.Traditionally,Infy starts to give out numbers before the opening bell.What is unnerving is that yesterday’s last hour of trading had a host of sellers in this scrip.
If we look at 4 top sensex shares with a maximum weightage,not less than 3 have some adverse fundamental development going against them:
Reliance:KG gas issue,MAT issue
Infosys:IT industry slowdown
L&T:Positive
ICICI:Expected rise in interest rates due to heavy borrowing programme by government
The disappearance of rains has become a worrying factor.Madhya Pradesh has declared itself as drought stricken.
Let us wait for the sensex to hit a bottom.
Sensex tanks on global economic worries
Selling pressure pulled the BSE Sensex below 14,000 on Wednesday as concerns over global economic recovery spooked financial markets all around.
Trade was volatile and the 30-share sensitive index touched an intra-day low of 13,701 before closing 401 points lower at 13,769. The fifty-share Nifty ended 2.93 percent down at 4,078.
The fall in the benchmark was led by L&T, ICICI Bank, Reliance Industries and HDFC Bank.
On the sectoral front, the BSE Realty Index dropped 8.47 percent, followed by the Capital Goods Index which ended 5.05 percent lower. All other indices ended in the red.
On the global front, Asian and European markets felt the selling heat as investors pulled funds out of bets on the global economic recovery.
Doubts about the strength of the global economy saw oil prices falling more that a dollar. Do you think the Sensex fall is a sign of a downtrend setting in, or is it a correction that will see the benchmark scaling new heights?
Sensex’s and global indexes falling together today may be just coincidental.Bourses are clearly under pressure.Sensex has lost 1,144 points(-7.6%)since b-day.FIIs are on a withdrawal spree.Investors should now try to find out the bottom,and reenter at safe levels.
Monsoons are again playing truant over grain bowl states.The spectre of drought has reappeared.Markets are hoping for cheerful news from Infosys on friday but if there were disappointment in store,sensex could slide faster.
Call it correction or adverse sentiment or global worries,sensex is clearly heading towards a fall.
Sensex rises in choppy trade
The BSE Sensex ended 0.9 percent up on Tuesday, recovering from yesterday’s biggest one-day drop in six months.
The benchmark turned negative during trade after rising more than 1 percent, as a large budget deficit weighed on investors’ minds. Trade was volatile and the 30-share sensitive index swung from an intra-day low of 14,000 to an intra-day high of 14,252 and closed 127 points higher at 14,170.
The fifty-share Nifty ended 0.87 percent up at 4,202.
The rise in the benchmark was led by ITC, L&T, ICICI Bank and Bharti Airtel.
On the sectoral front, the BSE Auto Index gained 3.92 percent, followed by the FMCG Index which ended 3.83 percent higher. However, the BSE Oil & Gas Index closed 1.32 percent lower.
On the global front, Asian and European markets ended lower as investors remained nervous ahead of upcoming second-quarter results.
Do you think the Sensex will recover and touch 15000 levels again?
Sensex had soared 2,111 points(+17.34%)in a single trading session on 18 May after a clear win of UPA alliance on an expectation that the new government will push through economic reforms and foreign investment.FIIs started to bring in funds in anticipation.
Sadly there is nothing in this budget for FIIs to hold on to.
Yesterday a spokesman for the government was taking pains in saying that they would not like the budget to be judged by sensex.Today DIIs were making all out efforts to show that D-street has given a thumbs up.
Sensex will probably return to the levels around day of reckoning(16 May).It could be revisiting 12,750- 13,000 levels.
Sensex snaps 14 weekly run of gains
The BSE Sensex advanced on Friday tracking world markets after positive U.S. economic data boosted investor sentiment and cemented hopes of a global economic recovery. The benchmark, however, snapped a run of 14 weekly gains. The 30-share sensitive index swung from an intra-day low of 14,179 to an intra-day high of 14,559, and closed 256 points higher at 14,521. The fifty-share Nifty ended 1.4 percent up at 4313.
The rise in the benchmark was led by L&T, Infosys, ITC and HDFC Bank.
On the sectoral front, the BSE Capital Goods Index advanced 4.5 percent, followed by the Realty Index which ended 3.1 percent higher. All other BSE Indices closed the day in the green.
Do you think the positive sentiments across the globe will help the Sensex regain 15,000 levels?
-
- Essar's Ravi Ruia, Loop execs get bail in 2G case
- Nasdaq chaos engulfed Facebook IPO
- SEBI toughens stance on serious cases
- Under pressure, govt to review steep petrol hike
- Spain region, Greek exit warnings rattle euro zone
- Stocks, euro fall on fears of Greek euro exit
- S&P cuts ratings on five Spanish banks
- Rupee posts eighth weekly drop; RBI intervenes
- BSE Sensex ends flat; outlook still weak
- ITC profit rises 26 pct as price hikes aid
The Wall
What happened on friday 2.20 in NSE Will shudder many who witnessed helplessly and many incurred losses. It seems, Indian market is close to ‘ Circuit’?